Kasoli: The withdrawal of the USA would have consequences for Europe and the Western Balkans

Political analyst Afrim Kasoli emphasized that a potential withdrawal of the United States would have implications for Europe and the Western Balkans, as recent years have shown that the European Union has not managed to handle crises effectively.

“The geopolitical crises erupting in many parts of the world, including the Middle East, and particularly the tension in the Far East over Taiwan, have raised concerns that the U.S., regardless of whether Harris or Trump wins the presidential election, will reorient its focus toward the Far East to balance and control China. Recent U.S. national strategic documentation has underscored that China remains one of the U.S.'s main geopolitical rivals and that investments are needed to contain this power wherever it may threaten the dominant role of the U.S. globally,” Kasoli noted.

According to him, a U.S. withdrawal would have consequences for Europe and the Western Balkans. Kasoli stresses that experience has shown that the EU cannot manage crises without U.S. support. Regarding the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue, Kasoli notes that the U.S. supports the EU-led process, which would be placed in a challenging position if the U.S. were to withdraw.

“This could have implications for Europe and the Western Balkans. I am skeptical that the EU will be able to compensate for the decisive role of the U.S., as history has shown that since the early 1990s, when the crisis of the former Yugoslavia's breakup began, the EU has demonstrated its inability to manage crises. In certain cases, such as ending the wars in Bosnia or Kosovo, the American factor was decisive. The U.S. has supported the EU-led dialogue so far, but if there is an American withdrawal, I foresee a difficult situation for both the region and the EU,” Kasoli stated.

However, Kasoli does not believe that the U.S. will withdraw overnight, even if Donald Trump wins the upcoming presidential election. He emphasizes that a solution to the crisis in Ukraine must come first.

“I’m skeptical that this could happen without the end of the war in Ukraine. I don’t believe the U.S. will withdraw from Ukraine like it did from Afghanistan, leaving Ukraine unsupported, as they know Ukraine wouldn’t withstand Russian aggression without that support. So, I don’t think the U.S. will suddenly pull out, even if Trump wins, despite his campaign statements claiming he could resolve the crisis within a day. I doubt there would be a sudden withdrawal without a resolution to the war in Ukraine. The end of the crisis in Ukraine could create a new reality. If the war in Ukraine concludes with a territorial exchange or increased autonomy for Russian-speaking entities, it will be decisive for political developments in other parts of Europe,” Kasoli believes.

Kasoli thinks that the “fight against China” will remain a primary U.S. geopolitical focus.

“I don’t believe the U.S. will withdraw overnight, even though their long-term strategic goal is to contain China. Let’s not forget that China poses a threat to European security with its dual approach toward international media. On one hand, its economic power has begun significantly undermining European economic strength, and on the other, the support it provides to Russia in the war in Ukraine impacts the threat to security and peace in Europe. Therefore, managing this dual threat remains the main geopolitical focus of the U.S. in the coming decade,” Kasoli concluded.