Nikovski: The entire region is arming itself, a response to the fragile global situation

Former Macedonian ambassador and analyst Risto Nikovski stated for Kosovo Online that all Western Balkan countries are increasing their military capabilities as a response to the "fragile global security situation." However, he believes it would be much wiser to invest in economic development, as the region is slowly becoming the "blind spot of Europe."

"Everyone is arming themselves, including Kosovo, and this is, in a way, a reaction to the global situation, which is fragile in many ways and seems to be deteriorating. Each country is trying to strengthen its security," Nikovski said.

He explained that military buildup is justified by the need to ensure national security.

"Security is tied to many aspects of governance, so these efforts are understandable. However, it must be emphasized that there will be no war in the Balkans. The reason is very clear. After the dissolution of Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union, the main power in the region became the United States. They control everything and will not allow any new military disruptions to peace. If war breaks out, the Russians will return, and if there’s one thing the Americans don’t want in the region, it’s the Russians. So, war will not happen, and it would be much smarter for Balkan countries to focus on economic development because we are, in a way, becoming the 'blind spot' of Europe," the analyst stressed.

Commenting on Global Firepower rankings, which place Serbia as the military leader in the region, Nikovski said that this ranking is logical and a result of extensive arms purchases.

"Croatia was the first to buy Rafale fighter jets from France, purchasing a full squadron of 12 aircraft. Serbia followed suit, acquiring and ordering 12 more planes. Spending €2.7 billion is an enormous amount," he noted.

However, he emphasized that these figures should be understood in context.

"It must be considered that the Balkans are divided into NATO member states, with the exception of the last three – Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia. Within NATO, military buildup is already an imperative," Nikovski explained.

He also warned that it would be a "catastrophe" if NATO were to raise the required military spending from the current 2% to 5% of GDP.

"This would be disastrous, not just for NATO members but beyond. Even the three countries outside of NATO will have to follow this trend in one way or another, and that leads us in a negative direction," Nikovski said.

He believes that Serbia's top ranking and Kosovo's last-place position in military strength will neither encourage nor motivate additional military investments.

"There is no such challenge. Kosovo is the smallest in many ways, and given its unique status, it is natural that its security framework develops under specific conditions. Turkey is also assisting Kosovo in security matters, so I believe Kosovo is following the same path as other countries in the region and the world," Nikovski stated.

He sees a major issue in the region's misguided policies that fail to prioritize economic development and integration, something he claims the Open Balkan initiative was supposed to facilitate.

"I believe this is a mistake for all, not just Kosovo. We should focus on economic development. It is a shame that the Open Balkan project failed. Borders should be made more flexible because the European Union is not going to expand, that has been a fact for a long time. It is up to us whether we will take the necessary steps to align with European living standards, conditions, and criteria or remain a 'blind spot' in the Balkans and Europe," he warned.

His message to the region, both NATO members and non-members, is to focus on development.

"All Balkan countries, whether in NATO or not, should be focused on development and the broadest possible cooperation. That is the only way to open new perspectives for all of us," Nikovski asserted.

He acknowledged that the war in Ukraine has contributed to strengthening defense capacities but suggested that a new US administration could introduce fundamental changes to international policy.

"This should serve as an example for all Balkan countries and for Europe as a whole. Only by following these new, positive trends will we secure a share of the benefits. If we go in the opposite direction and resist change, we risk reviving old historical syndromes," the analyst warned.