Pavkovic: Attempt to buy MPs failed, Limaj was Kurti’s "backup plan" from the start

Milos Pavkovic, an associate of the European Policy Centre from Belgrade, assessed that the course of the constitutive session of the Kosovo Parliament so far has shown there were attempts to buy votes and that Kurti will most likely resort to a "backup plan" – gaining support from Nisma in exchange for a deputy prime minister position in the "Kurti 3" government for the party’s leader, Fatmir Limaj.

"It has become clear that buying MPs in Kosovo is not a solution. We see that voting has already been repeated 21 times, and Albulena Haxhiu, the Self-Determination candidate, has not been elected. Opposition party leaders have clearly confirmed that there were attempts to buy MPs, attempts at individual defections, and various offers made to persuade them to vote for Self-Determination’s candidate. They gave strong assurances that the opposition is united and there will be no individual switching of sides," Pavkovic told Kosovo Online.

He believes that, at this moment, the most likely scenario is that Fatmir Limaj’s Nisma will leave the coalition with AAK, and its four MPs will switch to support the Self-Determination Movement.

"This has been talked about from the very beginning, and it seems those negotiations are now intensifying. This may have been Kurti’s backup plan all along, in case he failed to individually secure MPs. However, if no deal is made with Limaj, then we are definitely heading toward new elections," Pavkovic believes.

If Nisma becomes Kurti’s new coalition partner, Pavkovic has no doubt this would include a ministry for Fatmir Limaj.

"I assume his condition would be to enter the government, possibly with a deputy prime minister post, which isn’t an ideal scenario for Kurti, but if he has no other option, this becomes the most realistic scenario," the analyst explained.

He specified that what each MP asked in return for parliamentary support depended on the individual negotiations Kurti conducted.

"We saw in the media that Duda Balje, an MP from the Bosniak minority, was allegedly offered a professorship in Skopje. I assume others might request different positions, whether in government or something for their party… This will specifically depend on the individual MP or their party," Pavkovic emphasized.

Asked how much pressure from the West could influence the formation of the parliament and a new government, Pavkovic was skeptical that the Quint countries, the EU, or the US "want to interfere in internal matters and government formation."

"Albin Kurti’s government did not have good relations with these countries in the past period, so they are not inclined to support any kind of 'defections' or attempts to form a new government. So far, they have stayed on the sidelines, and the West’s only goal is to resolve the crisis, whether by forming a new government or calling new elections. It seems they have no preference and won’t invest much capital in supporting the formation of 'Kurti 3'," Pavkovic concluded.