Pavkovic: EU sanctions on Pristina do not have the capacity to lead to the removal of Self-Determination authority

Milos Pavkovic, an associate at the Center for European Policy, has assessed that the sanctions imposed by the EU on Pristina for not taking steps towards de-escalation will not significantly affect the political placement of Self-Determination in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

Pavkovic believes that the Kosovo opposition could potentially use the EU sanctions issue as a "weapon" against Self-Determination, presenting them as a consequence of the current government's deteriorating relations with Kosovo's allies. However, he notes that these will not be decisive in influencing the election results and the change of government in Kosovo.

"The opposition has a good weapon because it can blame the current government and ruling party for a bad reputation, for spoiling relations with Kosovo's most important partners. I remind you that not only has the EU imposed restrictive measures on Kosovo, but so have the USA. And that was the outgoing administration of Joseph Biden, which was very favorable to Kosovo. Thus, it is a weapon the opposition could use in the campaign. However, due to Pristina's approach to the Growth Plan, the sanctions package has been somewhat overshadowed and is not present in the campaign. It is questionable how skillfully the opposition will use it in the campaign, or how well Self-Determination will be able to neutralize the restrictive measures in the campaign and dismiss them," said Pavkovic.

However, he emphasizes that EU punitive measures will not decisively determine the outcome of the parliamentary elections in Kosovo.

As he notes, the sanctions do not have the potential to lead to the change of government. "The opposition might use them to some extent for their campaign, but they are not in themselves sufficient to cause a shakeup in Kosovo's political scene," highlighted Pavkovic. In June 2023, the EU introduced a package of restrictive measures against the government in Pristina due to unilateral actions and escalatory measures that the government of Kosovo's Prime Minister Albin Kurti took, aiming to de-escalate tensions in northern Kosovo.

However, Pavkovic points out that these measures have not shown results because Pristina refused to heed EU advice and did not lead to de-escalation.

The restrictive measures, which are still in effect, have two components, he reminds, adding that the first is economic, and the second is political.

Regarding the economic component, this package of restrictive measures involves freezing and blocking access to part of the pre-accession funds for Pristina, while the other set of measures relates to banning meetings between high-ranking leaders in Pristina with EU leaders, explains Pavkovic.

However, according to his assessment, both components were quite unsuccessful considering that Kosovo is included in the Western Balkans Growth Plan, and both Vjosa Osmani, as President of Kosovo, and Albin Kurti as Prime Minister have met and had official visits with representatives of member states, starting from Germany, through Croatia to Estonia.

"In this way, individual member states have violated the measures adopted by the EU. On the other hand, although we have this freezing of pre-accession funds, Kosovo has gained access to the Western Balkans Growth Plan, a special instrument adopted by the EU. In this way, these sanctions adopted by the EU have been cushioned, and on the other hand, in some way, the package of punitive measures against Pristina adopted in June 2023 has been rendered meaningless. These restrictive measures have failed to lead to de-escalation, nor to fulfill the conditions that the EU presented before Pristina," observes the associate of the Center for European Policy. Pavkovic reminds us that Kosovo officials have been lobbying EU countries for the abolition of these sanctions from the beginning, pointing out that they are too harsh and unfair.

Divided views on the abolition of sanctions against Kosovo within the EU, he indicated, further reduce the effectiveness of these restrictive measures.

"On the other hand, these measures in Pristina have been characterized as unfair, and Kosovo officials have lobbied for their abolition. Among the member states, there is no unanimous stance on whether to lift these measures or keep them, which in turn reduces their effectiveness," concluded Pavkovic.