Pavkovic: Kurti owes Osmani a favor, he will not betray her even at the cost of new political instability

Milos Pavkovic from the Center for European Policy assesses that it would be wiser for Self-Determination Movement leader Albin Kurti to put forward a non-partisan presidential candidate whom the opposition would find hard to reject, but that the likelihood of this happening is small because, as he tells Kosovo Online, Kurti “owes Vjosa Osmani a favor.”

“She called snap parliamentary elections for a date that most benefited Self-Determination. On the other hand, she also achieved significant diplomatic successes with several recognitions last year, some of them at the height of the election campaign, which definitely contributed to Self-Determination’s victory in the elections, since Osmani and Kurti are often seen as a political duo,” Pavkovic says.

Because of all this, he does not expect Kurti to “betray” Osmani now and propose another candidate.

“Despite everything, I think the final decision will be to nominate Vjosa Osmani again, as the ideal candidate of Self-Determination, even at the risk of entering a new period of political instability,” our interlocutor says.

He adds that from the past five years of Kurti’s time in power, it can be concluded that he is not inclined toward compromise, especially not with the opposition.

“That is another reason why I do not expect him to seek a compromise presidential proposal in cooperation with the opposition. If, however, we are talking about some other compromise solution within Self-Determination, whoever the movement’s candidate might be, I think they would face the same fate as Konjufca did as a candidate for prime minister, or as their original candidate for speaker of parliament last year. So it is equally problematic,” Pavkovic points out.

He believes that a potentially compromise solution would exist only if a prominent non-partisan figure were proposed.

“Someone who was a member of the KLA in the 1990s or a distinguished citizen of Kosovo, for whom the opposition would find it hard to justify opposition. However, as I said, knowing Kurti, I think that this is not the path he will take, but that he will stick to the duo with Osmani,” he says.

He explains that Kurti would thereby risk new snap elections if he failed to secure a two-thirds majority in the first two rounds of the presidential election in the Assembly.

“If there is no two-thirds majority in the first two rounds, voting proceeds by an absolute majority, but a quorum of 80 MPs is required, which Kurti does not have at the moment. That is a challenge because, if the president is not elected even in the third round, the Assembly is dissolved and snap parliamentary elections are called,” our interlocutor notes, describing the prospect of new elections as a “game of cat and mouse.”

“As unfavorable as they could be for Kurti, they could be just as unfavorable for the opposition, which was thoroughly defeated in these parliamentary elections. And that is where Kurti clearly sees his advantage and probably assesses that the opposition is not ready for new elections and that, in the end, it will give its confidence to his candidate,” Pavkovic concludes.