Petraj: In Munich, U.S.–EU relations will either return to the right track or deteriorate further

Political analyst and lawyer Edmond Petraj from Tirana told Kosovo Online that this year’s Munich Security Conference will represent one of the pivotal moments at which relations between the United States and the European Union will either be restored to the right course or worsen further.

He notes that relations between America and the EU have passed through numerous periods of tension and that there are significant disagreements regarding Ukraine.

“The United States did not bring the EU closer to the negotiating table on Ukraine, which has created considerable dissatisfaction in Brussels. European leaders also do not want any change of borders, and that is the ‘Achilles’ heel’—the greatest problem today. EU leaders oppose territorial exchanges, border changes, or the redrawing of boundaries established in the past. The reason is that such steps could revive numerous ethnic conflicts, and the EU does not accept this approach as a solution, viewing it as the opening of ‘Pandora’s box,’ since the EU itself is a borderless space,” Petraj stated.

In his assessment, the conference will devote significant attention to Ukraine, but no agreement concerning Ukraine or a security arrangement is likely to be reached.

“The United States has shown interest in Greenland, and I believe Greenland will be a ‘hot issue,’ since we know that in such cases Article 5 of the NATO Charter obliges all member states of the Alliance to defend Denmark and Greenland and to respond against an aggressor,” he said.

He further adds that there are already strong signals pointing to the formation of a Germany–France–United Kingdom axis.

“This axis is being reconstituted. The United Kingdom has begun distancing itself from the United States, even though Americans themselves have British roots. Under these circumstances, I believe this conference may indicate the direction in which future developments will unfold. Debates will be intense. It may happen that no agreement is reached on many issues by the end of the conference, but it appears that much is happening ‘beneath the surface.’ God willing, we will not see a war that would be catastrophic, because today it is enough to press a button of destruction—there is no need to send troops anywhere,” Petraj noted.

Regarding the Western Balkans, the analyst points out that unresolved ethnic issues remain, but he does not expect a repetition of past scenarios.

Today’s world, he assesses, is moving toward the non-recognition of agreements signed in the past that once defined the global order. There is visible involvement by various U.S. institutions in Europe’s internal affairs and in Latin American countries; however, as far as the Balkans are concerned, he believes the status quo will be maintained.

“Not to mention that rivalry among major powers for hegemony in the Western Balkans is also possible. Several countries exert strong influence in this region. One is Russia, which has significant influence, but so does the EU. Turkey also carries weight, and the United States remains considerably present here. Developments may unfold over time, as the EU could move toward federalization, which might prompt discussion of such a model. The Balkans could follow a similar path. In other words, the Balkans could become a federation, as many federations exist around the world. However, we must wait to see what will happen. These are some of the messages emerging from the events currently taking place,” Petraj concluded.