Rajic: If the conflict in Israel becomes wider, it could affect the situation in Kosovo

Geopolitical analyst Predrag Rajic says for Kosovo Online that if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains localized, limited to clashes between Israeli security forces and Palestinian Hamas in the Gaza Strip, he doesn't believe it will have significant direct consequences for the Western Balkans and the situation in Kosovo. However, he adds that if the conflict were to escalate and involve new actors, either directly or indirectly, we might experience consequences that are currently not easy to predict.

"It's likely that in such a case, there would be repercussions for the situation in Kosovo and Metohija. We've witnessed, not once, crises in the Gaza Strip during the 21st century, and they could be serious operations with many casualties on both sides, but they didn't significantly affect the situation in the Western Balkans. However, if the situation were to spiral out of control now, with broader consequences and the involvement of other factors, we could probably expect certain repercussions for the situation in Kosovo," Rajic explains.

When asked about how the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could impact the Kosovo issue, whether it could expedite finding a solution or lead to it being deprioritized by major powers, Rajic says it's impossible to say at this moment.

"Because we don't know if the conflict in the Gaza Strip would spread to other actors and to what extent. For example, if the conflict expanded to directly involve Iran or if the US more directly and openly intervened on Israel's side, hypothetically, it could have consequences for the entire Euro-Asian NATO continent. The situation could literally evolve in all directions concerning the security architecture of the entire Middle East. This would, of course, affect the Western Balkans. If it were to trigger a new wave of refugees to Europe from the Middle East, all those routes lead through the Western Balkans, and largely through Serbia. In that case, we would certainly face consequences. Speaking about it now, hypothetically, is very difficult because we don't yet know if this conflict will spread to third parties and to what extent," Rajic points out.