Savkovic: Inflation and rising oil prices the biggest risk for the Western Balkans due to the Middle East conflict

Marko Savkovic from the ISAC Fund told Kosovo Online that the conflict in the Middle East does not represent a direct risk for the countries of the Western Balkans, assessing that the previous diplomatic disagreements between Tirana and Tehran will not escalate further. For the Western Balkans, he notes, the biggest risk lies in the economic consequences – inflation and rising prices, especially of petroleum products.

Savkovic believes that European countries that supported the operation of the United States and Israel are at greater risk of an Iranian attack, pointing out that Iranian missiles can reach certain EU member states. Iran, he explains, has managed to escalate the conflict by attacking US allies in the Middle East, including targeting international airports and oil terminals.

“For now, I would say they have succeeded in expanding the conflict so that it becomes something more than merely, however terrible it may be, a conflict between the US and Israel on one side and Iran on the other. Azerbaijan has also been attacked, specifically the Nakhchivan region,” he said.

He points out that any further expansion of the conflict to the territories of US allied states would represent a form of state terrorism, which would provoke a reaction from the European Union that would expect the countries of the Western Balkans to follow their example. He also recalls that among the countries of the region only Albania had open disagreements with Tehran.

“I do not think that the Western Balkans itself is directly threatened. The only country that had a very concrete reason for conflict with Iran was Albania. Albania expelled a group connected to the regime in Tehran. Iran responded with a cyberattack. That was one of the most serious cyber incidents in this region, but beyond that, I truly do not see anything further at this moment,” Savkovic said.

Speaking about the indirect consequences of the Middle East conflict for the countries of the Western Balkans, he stresses that the economic effects will be felt very quickly.

“The Strait of Hormuz has been closed, oil pipelines disrupted, strikes on oil terminals... That represents a large share of global trade in petroleum products. Prices will rise. The increase is not yet that large, but we will see how it affects other prices. Usually a rise in prices follows, and then inflation,” he explained.

There are also speculations about the launch of a new migration wave, Savkovic says, adding that it is too early for such an assessment since there are still no ground operations in Iran, and the United States is currently ruling out that possibility.

“A broader internal conflict, which would also have that dimension, would certainly move some people. But I think we are still far from such a scenario. There is reason for concern, but I think that this region, the Western Balkans, in relation to what is happening there, is secondary,” our interlocutor assessed.

He points out that discussions on social networks in the region already show divisions and support for either the Israeli-American or the Iranian side along ethnic and religious lines.

“I assume there will be a lot of understanding for Iran in Serbia. It has been attacked, regardless of the nature of that regime, and parallels with 1999 are also emerging. That is inevitable because the nature of this conflict is such – it is an air campaign,” he noted.

What should worry all countries in the Western Balkans, he says, is that there are no indications that the new conflict in the Middle East will end quickly.

“On the contrary, we hear analyses suggesting that this could last for months. Then we enter, I fear, everything I mentioned – rising prices, a migration crisis, global disruption of supply chains. This conflict could greatly complicate life for all of us,” Savkovic said.

Commenting on similarities with the war in Iraq, Savkovic said there is a similarity in the fact that both countries are multiethnic, but he emphasized that the Iranian regime has been consolidated through four decades of international sanctions and eight years of war, and that Iranian statehood spans millennia.

“It is expected that the regime will collapse, but I do not see what those assumptions are based on. If the regime has done anything over the past 47 years, it has worked on its own consolidation. It survived eight years of war with its neighbor, which was a horrific war in terms of casualties and operations. It survived four decades of international sanctions led by the United States, which for a long time was the unipolar hegemon. I think that is unrealistic at this moment,” Savkovic concluded.