Sljuka: The USA will not relinquish its leading role in the Western Balkans

Aleksandar Sljuka, an associate of the NGO "New Social Initiative," believes that the United States will not relinquish its leading role in the Western Balkans and that the American approach to the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue will depend on the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections this November.

According to Sljuka, if Donald Trump wins, we can expect unilateral actions similar to those during his first term.

"It’s unrealistic to expect the USA to give up its leading role in the Western Balkans. We know they have played a decisive role in this region over the past 20 to 30 years, and essentially, no one can replace a hegemon like the USA. However, considering the upcoming elections, it is more realistic to anticipate a shift toward greater unilateral action on one side or the other if Donald Trump comes to power. If Trump wins, we can expect him, as in his first term, to act unilaterally and adopt a one-sided approach, with less coordination with European partners, even in the context of the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. The dialogue is currently in deeper trouble, and Trump will likely try to use this to impose some of his own solutions," Sljuka stated.

On the other hand, if Kamala Harris wins the election, the dialogue will remain under the leadership of the European Union, Sljuka believes.

“If Harris is elected, I think we’ll see the EU take the lead role in the context of the dialogue and the situation in the Western Balkans, though, of course, with U.S. support, as no major steps can happen without it,” he added.

Sljuka points out that the stances of Pristina and Belgrade are clear. Belgrade would prefer Trump as president, while Pristina openly favors the Democrats.

“Belgrade is openly anticipating Trump’s return, but notably, they are no longer ‘betting’ on a single candidate, which wasn’t the case in the past. Still, Trump is more suitable for Belgrade, as it would allow a quicker resolution to the crisis facing the dialogue. Pristina, on the other hand, makes it clear they do not favor Trump’s return; they are much more aligned with the Democrats, having turbulent relations with Republicans—such as the friction between Kurti and Grenell,” Sljuka noted.

However, regarding the dialogue, he added, one shouldn’t expect a breakthrough whether Trump or Harris is elected.

“If the situation remains the same, with Harris winning in the U.S. and Kurti remaining in power in Kosovo, we won’t see a rapid improvement on the ground, at least not until October, when Kosovo’s general elections occur. But if Trump wins and Kurti stays in power, there could be a decisive American approach—not overwhelmingly so, given global crises, but potentially aiming for a breakthrough through the revival of the Washington Agreement and similar alternative solutions, if deemed feasible,” Sljuka concluded.