Surlic: The main interest of international actors is for Self-Determination not to be in power

The main interest of international actors is for Self-Determination not to remain in power. Pristina’s allies would prefer the opposition to take over, but at this moment their influence is very limited, says Stefan Surlic, Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade, speaking to Kosovo Online.

“They have no drastic mechanisms of blackmail or pressure, either on Self-Determination or on the opposition parties,” Surlic said.

At present, he believes, international actors largely see the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) as the central party which, in the event of repeat elections, would be expected to lead a new government.

“They are also aware that Kurti is increasingly concentrating power in his own hands and that it is very likely he would again head the government if elections were repeated. For this reason, they are very cautious—they communicate, they talk, they discuss various options, but you will never hear a clear position that they are against a Self-Determination government or that they wholeheartedly support a coalition of opposition and minority parties,” he explained.

Kosovo’s allies, he added, mainly care about having a degree of stability and a government they can rely on as a partner.

“Above all, it is important for them that through a new government and new political actors, the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina—which is clinically dead—is revived, and that Pristina becomes a cooperative party,” Surlic said.

However, the problem with a scenario in which Self-Determination goes into opposition, he noted, is that it would become a very strong opposition force.

“No political actor is ready to take that hot potato at the very start—namely to soften the policy that has already been entrenched, which is systemic discrimination against the Serbian community in northern Kosovo, nor to simply resume dialogue with Belgrade. They know this would carry a heavy political cost and that they would immediately be branded as traitors of national interests for the sake of some deal with international actors,” he pointed out.

Surlic believes that foreign actors will lobby for the political crisis to be resolved without new elections and through an agreement on forming institutions. However, he says they also see that the chances of this are slim, since even opposition parties are individually negotiating with Self-Determination.

“In the end, they also see that the imposed narrative makes any idea of normalizing relations or dialogue with Belgrade extremely difficult—no matter who is in power in Pristina,” he concluded.