Velebit: It should not be expected that Western Balkans will be a focus of the US in the coming months

Vuk Velebit, Executive Director of the Pupin Initiative, stated that the new US administration is unlikely to address the Western Balkans in its first few months, and he noted that selecting a new ambassador to Serbia and a new Assistant Secretary of State for Europe will follow.

"We need to be realistic in our expectations, and I am not certain we will see concrete policies toward the Western Balkans in the first months of the new administration. The reasons for this are the war in Ukraine, the war in Gaza, and numerous domestic issues that will be priorities for the new administration," Velebit told Kosovo Online.

He emphasizes the need to wait for the appointment of a new US ambassador to Serbia and to see whether there will be changes to the position of Assistant Secretary of State for Europe.

"The first step is the appointment of a new US ambassador once Christopher Hill leaves Serbia. Then we need to see who will be the Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and the officials who will deal with our region. Will Sasha Kasanoff remain in his position? I believe he will continue to focus on the region in the near future, but we need to wait and see what policies the new administration will adopt," Velebit explained.

He expressed confidence that Richard Grenell will have the authority to address issues concerning the Western Balkans.

"A positive aspect is that Richard Grenell, in his role as the president’s special envoy for crisis areas, will undoubtedly have the authority to deal with our region," Velebit emphasized.

Velebit also believes the appointment of a new ambassador to Serbia will carry political weight and be someone trusted by Donald Trump.

"I am confident that the new US ambassador to Belgrade will be a political appointee, nominated by the White House, as Christopher Hill was a political appointee under President Joseph Biden. In this context, I am certain this appointment will hold political significance and that the individual will be someone trusted by President Trump and his close circle. I believe Serbia remains important to Washington, especially in light of the strategic dialogue between Serbia and the US, which secures Serbia a reserved place at the table in Washington," Velebit said.

If deemed necessary, he says, a new ambassador to Pristina could also be a political appointee to replace Jeffrey Hovenier, though the focus of US cooperation will primarily shift toward Serbia and Albania.

"Washington has recently been paying more attention to Belgrade and less to Sarajevo and Pristina. However, if the new Trump administration expresses willingness to resolve relations between Serbs and Albanians in this region, I believe that appointment will also be significant. Still, the emphasis will likely be on relations between Belgrade, Tirana, and Washington," Velebit asserted.

When asked about Trump’s recent statements, particularly regarding Greenland, and how they might relate to issues affecting the Western Balkans, especially the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, Velebit suggested taking such announcements with caution, however, he acknowledged that the US undoubtedly has strategic interests in the region.

"Regarding Greenland, the US has strategic interests there. Talks will undoubtedly occur, but since both the US and Denmark are NATO members, both sides will approach this issue with great care. All of Trump’s announcements should always be taken with a degree of skepticism. He uses them to boost his negotiating leverage with Canada, the European Union, and Latin American countries. He is a businessman who understands this language, but I am confident the US will adopt a more direct and pragmatic policy that is business-focused and less based on values," Velebit concluded.