Vuksanovic: States with territorial disputes are unlikely to recognize Kosovo, Ukraine included

Vuk Vuksanovic, a senior researcher at the Belgrade Center for Security Policy, says that Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba's visit to Serbia should be interpreted as Ukraine's attempt to remain active on the international stage, while it was crucial for Belgrade to ensure that Kyiv remains on the list of countries that do not recognize Kosovo.

"On one hand, it is Ukraine's attempt to remain active on the international stage, to try to maintain some level of support for its very unfavorable situation. Of course, the fact is that Serbia is still perceived in Western political discourse as unconditionally loyal to Moscow, even though the reality is much more complicated. In a way, Ukraine can present this as its effort to make Serbia more empathetic," Vuksanovic explained for Kosovo Online.

He adds that it was primarily important for Serbia during the discussions to ensure that Ukraine continues to be on the list of countries that have not recognized Kosovo.

"And I think there is no chance of a change in Kyiv's stance while they face territorial losses. And as the balance of power on the ground has sharply shifted in favor of Russia, there is a danger of losing even more territory. A state in such a situation is unlikely to change its stance on a dispute like Kosovo," Vuksanovic assessed.

When asked about the potential consequences of a change in Kyiv's official policy regarding non-recognition, this expert emphasizes that such considerations could be made if Ukraine were not in its current situation.

"If Ukraine were a country without any territorial disputes and problems regarding its territorial integrity, it wouldn't produce anything. But in this case, on the one hand, it has a divided population. Some clearly identify with or feel a strong sense of brotherhood with neighboring Russia. On the other hand, there is the western part of Ukraine, where there's a strong Ukrainian identity increasingly based on a strong anti-Russian sentiment in the context of this war. Equally, it has a great power as its neighbor, who evidently considers Ukraine crucial for its strategic interests and national security. In such a context, I can't say that Ukraine can change anything," Vuksanovic explained.

He said that a change in Ukraine's stance would be "just another pain" for Serbia.

"For Serbia, it would certainly be 'just another pain'. Realistically, at a time when Serbia is trying to keep Kosovo out of international institutions as long as possible in the hope of strengthening its position and getting a better solution, any state joining the list of those recognizing Kosovo is automatically a loss for such a policy," Vuksanovic emphasized.