Santic: In Serbia, a decade-long trend of declining birth rates, demographics the most important issue for every state

In Serbia, there is a noticeable decade-long trend of declining birth rates, Dr. Danica Santic, a Professor at the Faculty of Geography in Belgrade says for Kosovo Online. She points out that demographic issues are extremely complex and crucial for the functioning of the state, as they not only influence society but also impact economic conditions.

"When we talk about the number of live births in Serbia, the trend has been consistently declining over the decades, indicating a continual decrease in the number of live births. According to some recent data published by the Statistical Office, the decline in the number of live births continued in 2023. There were 56,001 births, which is about 860 fewer than in 2022. If we compare this with the beginning of the 21st century, there has been a two-thirds reduction in live births over the past 20 years", Santic said for Kosovo Online.

Such a trend, she explains, is a process happening in all countries worldwide, primarily related to the demographic transition, i.e., the shift from higher birth and death rates to lower ones. She adds that it is a historical process that began about 200 years ago in developed countries in Western Europe.

"This continues, and all countries are in some phase of demographic transition. Regarding our country and the entire region, considering we have almost the same characteristics, which means a decline in this rate, there are numerous reasons. This is primarily due to lifestyle changes, the transition from an agricultural society to what we now call a modern society, moving from rural areas to urban environments", Santic says.

She adds that there is now a trend of small families. Previously, these were families with two children, and now, especially in developed parts of the world, these are families with one child.

"When we talk about birth rates, a good example is China, which adopted the one-child policy in 1979 to somehow control the population through demographic policy. They abolished it in 2016, considering the demographic and then economic consequences of birth control. So, when you look at East Asia, China today, it is clear that they have the lowest birth rates in the world", she explained.

The consequences of this are also visible in the labor market. Santic notes that in the immediate vicinity, or some EU countries, there are examples where low birth rates are already manifesting as a labor shortage. The closest example, she says, is Germany.

"Germany has had one of the lowest birth rates for quite some time, and the labor shortage is such that we are talking about not tens of thousands but hundreds of thousands of job positions for which workers are sought, causing migration processes that are familiar to us, meaning people are leaving from various regions. Specifically, we from the Western Balkans have significant migration flows to Germany, Austria, Switzerland, etc., to all those countries where, due to insufficient childbirth for many years, job positions are filled with foreign labor", our interlocutor explains.

According to her, a similar situation exists in Serbia, so last year, the law on the employment of foreigners and the law on residence were modified, given that, due to a low birth rate, our market required certain job positions to be filled by foreigners. In the previous year, she adds, according to some estimates, as many as 80,000 work permits were issued to foreigners, precisely for those in-demand occupations that there was no one to perform in Serbia.

Speaking about the consequences, Santic says that it is a very important question. She notes that there is often talk about climate change and political changes, and when it comes to demographic changes, everyone thinks that it is something normal, following a certain model, and something we cannot influence.

"Only when demographic processes and trends become so alarming do we try to take some measures. However, for any more serious demographic results, years are needed. I am primarily thinking about birth rates, because any strategy to improve childbirth, all measures aimed at increasing the number of children in families, will show their effects only in 10, or 20 years, so things move very slowly in demographics in positive or desired effects, and demography is certainly the most important issue for every state, and soon we will become aware, of the planet as a whole", Santic says.

She explains that during the previous year, the global population reached the eight billion mark, and the population is still growing, but the regions are so different that we always talk about regions with low fertility, which have certain consequences that require certain measures, and high-fertility regions, where we have other questions and challenges.

"Demographic issues are extremely complex, and the functioning of the state depends on them", she concludes.

When asked how to fight for an increase in birth rates, Santic says that so far, no one has come up with a systematic answer, but countries are trying to address the needs of families and children through certain material benefits, balancing work and parenthood, paying attention to the psychological cost of parenthood, etc.

"As an example, we always mention Sweden because it has the best population policy, but these are exceptional benefits. At the Faculty of Geography, we have a demography department, and colleagues who teach there often say that population policy is a privilege of wealthy countries because these are significant benefits. It is necessary to create the right measures that will yield results that cannot be achieved in the short term. It takes time for these actions to be directed towards society as a whole and for families to feel security for their children to grow up in a safe environment", Santic emphasized.