Two steps forward, one step back: Kosovo-Serbia-EU talks

Written for Kosovo Online by Dr Helena Ivanov, Associate Research Fellow, Henry Jackson Society

Another round of talks between President Vucic and Prime Minister Kurti, mediated by EU representatives, came to a close last night. What many hoped would be another step forward in normalising relations between Serbia and Kosovo turned out to be a step back – putting in question all the deals verbally accepted, albeit not yet signed.

If you ask Josep Borrell, “some progress was achieved.” Notably, the two sides “delivered on an important point of the Implementation Annex – the Declaration of Missing Persons.” Even when it comes to the most controversial point of recent talks, Mr Borrell remained positive saying that “the Parties took an important and symbolic step towards the establishment of the Serb-majority municipalities.” This involved the presentation of the first draft of the Statue of this Association presented by the Management Team of Kosovo Serbs. Mr Borrell was clear that this draft is by no means final, but that even its presentation should be seen as a step forward.

Mr Borrell’s tone and interpretation of the talks yesterday is quite different to what we heard from Mr Vucic and Mr Kurti. President Vucic stated he is “very concerned” because he thinks “[we] have hit a wall” when it comes to the agreement regarding the Association of the Serb Municipalities. On the other hand, Mr Kurti said that the Draft presented by the Management Team clearly shows that “Serbia wants to create Rrpublika Srpska” in Kosovo, and said the Draft in question is “clearly not compatible with Kosovo constitution.”

The events of last night clearly show that, the actual normalisation of relations between Kosovo and Serbia is nowhere in sight. On one hand, Kosovo remains unlikely to accept the establishment of the Association of Serb Municipalities as agreed in Brussels in 2013. At the same time, Serbian representatives suggested that they will selectively apply the deal accepted in Ohrid last month until Kosovo authorities agree to establish the Association.

Another round of talks between President Vucic and Prime Minister Kurti, mediated by EU representatives, came to a close last night. What many hoped would be another step forward in normalising relations between Serbia and Kosovo turned out to be a step back – putting in question all the deals verbally accepted, albeit not yet signed.

There was a grain of justifiable optimism following the new round of talks held in Brussels and Ohrid in February and March respectively in which both sides seemed quite willing to discuss hard issues and make necessary compromises. But even back then, there were signs that the implementation talks could fail. For one, neither of the deals was actually signed – instead, they were only verbally accepted.

What is more, both deals lacked substantive details regarding their implementation. For example, while the Ohrid agreement required Kosovo to start urgent talks about establishing the Association of Serb Municipalities, very little was said about when exactly those talks will start, how will they operate, and what are the expected deliverables. Brussels and Ohrid changed very little on the ground, as illustrated by the recent elections in Kosovo boycotted by Serbs.

The EU needs to take the matter seriously, otherwise it risks losing the credibility it currently holds. The EU’s leverage and power over these talks is already in doubt – not just because the latest talks seem to have had no actual effect, but also because parts of the Brussels agreement signed in 2013 are yet to be implemented.  

Moreover, failure to normalise relations can have severe long-term implications for the stability and security of the region. Just last year, we saw major escalation of tensions in Kosovo about car registration plates, travel documents, and the arrest of the Kosovo Serb police officer. Going forward, a breakdown of negotiations could further increase tensions between the two ethnicities, and at the extreme, lead to violence.

To lead or mediate these talks was never going to be easy, because in the end, Kosovo and Serbia are two sides with mutually eclusive political aims. Serbia refuses to recognise Kosovo’s independence, and Kosovo is seeking full independence and international recognition. Thus, both sides can be expected to object to any policy that is seen as infringing upon their ability to exercise sovereignty. However, what is clear is that the process of normalisation inevitably must involve concessions on both sides.

To get both sides to agree to such concessions, the EU must play a smart game, especially because Russia is likely to exploit any cracks in the system it finds. To do so, the EU must re-establish its credibility and authority in the matter and ensure that all sides have to implement previously signed agreements. Without that we risk repeating the previously seen pattern – two steps forward and one step back.