American Offensive by Lajcak: Is Kosovo seen more clearly from New York or from Brussels?

Miroslav Lajčak, SAD - EU
Source: Kosovo online/Ilustracija

When things don’t work out in Brussels, why not try from New York? Maybe that’s the right address for dialogue. After a series of unsuccessful negotiation rounds between Belgrade and Pristina, the chief European mediator, Miroslav Lajcak, took advantage of the UN General Assembly last week to meet with the main actors once again. This time, the U.S. Special Envoy for the Western Balkans, Aleksandar Kasanof, was also included in the talks. For those interviewed by Kosovo Online, there is no doubt that this represents a new Lajcak-led – American diplomatic offensive. The only uncertainty is whether Kosovo is really seen more clearly from New York than from Brussels.

Written by: Arsenije Vuckovic

"I truly believe that our discussions will help shape effective solutions to the challenges we face globally," Lajcak said, summarizing the past week he spent in New York.

After one of those meetings, with Prime Minister Albin Kurti and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, Aleksandar Kasanof, Lajcak stated that swift implementation of the normalization agreement has no alternative.

"We agreed that there is no alternative to the swift implementation of the Agreement on the Path to Normalization of Relations," Lajcak noted.

Prior to that, he had talks with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.

"I had tough discussions about Kosovo and Metohija. It is our responsibility to continue behaving responsibly, to maintain peace, life, and the survival of our people in Kosovo and Metohija, while preserving the legal-political statehood of the Republic of Serbia," Vucic wrote on Instagram, summarizing the past week at the UN General Assembly.

Prime Minister Albin Kurti also summed up the past week, claiming to have held "important and productive meetings on current and future events" in New York.

Appeasing Pristina

For political analyst Ognjen Gogic, there is no doubt that Miroslav Lajcak’s trip to New York should be interpreted as a diplomatic offensive, not aimed at quickly normalizing relations, but rather to appease Pristina, encouraging it to halt unilateral actions and return to dialogue.

"Lajcak is certainly in a diplomatic offensive, but it is more focused on salvaging what can be salvaged within the dialogue framework rather than achieving new results. His offensive is actually more directed toward Pristina," Gogic told Kosovo Online.

Gogic believes that the numerous meetings Lajcak held last week on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly were not aimed at increasing pressure on Pristina to stop its unilateral actions, but rather at trying to appease it into returning to dialogue.

“The fact is that Pristina has effectively left the dialogue. It has opted for unilateral actions because it believes they are a better means to achieve its goals, which places it outside the dialogue framework. What Lajcak has been attempting over the past few weeks is to coax Pristina back into the dialogue,” Gogic explains.

He recalls that Lajcak visited Pristina a few weeks ago and delivered two important messages: first, that the issue of the main bridge over the Ibar River would not be a subject of dialogue, and second, that Serbia had withdrawn its letter expressing reservations about the Ohrid Agreement.

“Both messages were directed at Pristina with the intention of appeasing it, making it more willing to return to the dialogue, supposedly because of these concessions from the Serbian side. However, this has not yielded any results,” Gogic says.

This, according to the political analyst, is the reason for Lajcak’s trip to the U.S. and his meetings with Prime Minister Albin Kurti and the U.S. Special Envoy for the Western Balkans, Aleksandar Kasanof.

“In the U.S., Lajcak said what Kurti wants to hear, which is that the Ohrid Agreement must be implemented. He made this statement in the presence of Kasanof, signaling that the Americans support this position. However, this is not enough and won’t be enough because Kurti doesn’t just want the agreement to be implemented; implementing the agreement means forming the Association of Serb Municipalities, something Kurti is not interested in,” Gogic emphasizes.

He points out that Kurti only wants the Ohrid Agreement to be signed, something he has repeatedly stated.

“Kurti believes that if the agreement were signed, it would lead to new recognitions of Kosovo by the five EU non-recognizing states. That’s what he wants, but Lajcak cannot guarantee that. So, while Lajcak’s initiative is aimed at bringing Pristina back to the process, it will be short-lived because Pristina is preparing for elections and has little trust in Lajcak, expecting him to leave his position soon,” Gogic argues.

He adds that, on the other hand, Lajcak lacks the mechanisms to persuade Serbia into anything either.

“He is not someone with a key role in the European Union. That responsibility lies with the member states, and only when they take a stance that something needs to be done will there possibly be results,” Gogic stresses.

When asked how likely it is to make progress toward normalization in this situation, Gogic says that implementing the agreement is, by definition, opposed to unilateral actions.

“Dialogue implies reaching an agreement, finding a solution to an open issue, and then implementing it. In contrast, unilateral measures are what Pristina is doing – changing the reality on the ground with unilateral, uncoordinated actions, thereby creating a fait accompli,” Gogic warns.

Gogic adds that Pristina has calculated that unilateral measures are more beneficial for achieving its goals, particularly in the context of gaining political points during the pre-election campaign.

“Pristina views these unilateral actions as more advantageous than returning to dialogue and achieving agreements through it. For example, if the issue of the temporary administrative bodies in northern Kosovo were raised in dialogue, and Pristina stated its desire for their abolition, Belgrade would respond with either a ‘no’ or would say, ‘Okay, but then the Association of Serb Municipalities must be formed to take over some of their competencies,’ which Pristina would not accept. Therefore, Pristina has concluded that unilateral actions are more beneficial to it than being involved in dialogue and implementing agreements,” Gogic explains.

He concludes that the answer is quite straightforward.

“The agreements are nothing more than dead letters on paper, and they no longer guarantee anything on the ground,” Gogic concludes.

Prolonging the Dialogue

Bljerim Canaj, a professor of political history from Pristina, tells Kosovo Online that due to the upcoming elections in Kosovo and the U.S. presidential elections, we should not expect a continuation of the dialogue before February of next year. This scenario, according to Canaj, suits both Prime Minister Albin Kurti and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic equally.

Commenting on the statement by European chief negotiator Miroslav Lajcak that the path to normalizing relations between Serbia and Kosovo has no alternative, Canaj agrees but notes that no one knows when it will happen.

“We all know there is no alternative, but how long will it take? For now, I don’t believe there will be any progress because Kosovo is in election season, and political battles are underway. On the other hand, Lajcak is nearing the end of his career in terms of dialogue, and of course, he has to say or do something, since he’s paid for this role. I also don’t think Vucic is ready to make any moves. I keep saying that both Vucic and Kurti benefit from the current situation, as it serves their political careers,” Canaj states.

Canaj expects progress only after the Kosovo elections.

“After the elections in Kosovo, there might be some developments. But first, let's see how the elections go. This process must eventually come to an end because it has been going on for too long, but for now, I don’t expect anything until February,” Canaj emphasizes.

He also notes that the U.S. presidential election is influencing the delay in the dialogue process.

“They (the U.S.) need to get involved because without their intervention, I don’t believe there will be any progress,” Canaj observes.

When asked if this involvement will lead to new pressures on Serbia to recognize Kosovo, Canaj says that it is difficult to predict.

“I can’t say for sure; it’s hard to tell. There will always be pressure for recognition. Now, whether Serbia will recognize Kosovo or not, or how it will do so, I can’t say,” Canaj concluded.

Pristina's Strategy

Milica Andric Rakic, program manager at the NGO Social Initiative in North Mitrovica, believes that chief European mediator Miroslav Lajcak is trying to shift Pristina's current strategy — minimizing dialogue while changing the reality on the ground as much as possible.

“Until we see the composition of the new government in Pristina, and if we don’t have a government with a broader coalition, such as a government of Vetëvendosje and some larger political party, not just with minorities, I really don’t see any progress happening. We will have a freeze in this situation until the political circumstances change or the authorities in Pristina realize that dialogue is indeed the way to resolve issues, or unless there is a major escalation,” Andric Rakic tells Kosovo Online.

Andric Rakic recalls that since September 2021, Kosovo has entered a cycle of constant crises, with Pristina clearly aiming to artificially change the reality on the ground.

"Everything we've seen over the last three years, essentially since September 2021 when we entered this cycle of constant crises, shows that the Kosovo government has not deviated from its set course, which can be described as: 'Less dialogue, and more actions aimed at changing the reality on the ground,'" Andric Rakic emphasizes.

She does not view last week's diplomatic offensive by chief European negotiator Miroslav Lajcak as an attempt to revive the dialogue, but rather as an effort to coax Prime Minister Kurti into attending a meeting.

She is not optimistic.

“I wouldn’t say this is a new attempt to revive the dialogue. Lajcak simply used the opportunity presented by the UN General Assembly and the presence of Kasanof, the U.S. official, to leverage his authority and persuade Kurti to attend a meeting. I wouldn’t read too much into it,” Andric Rakic suggests.

She explains that many decisions will depend not only on the upcoming elections in Kosovo but also on the decisions of the future European Commissioner, Kaja Kallas.

"Much will depend on her going forward. The first decision is whether she will want to keep the mediator, and then, if she doesn't, who she will appoint to that role, unless she decides to handle the dialogue herself, like Federica Mogherini did. I don't see any serious movement within the dialogue process in the coming months."

Andric Rakic believes that the Kosovo side is not considering going beyond the Ohrid Agreement in the dialogue, whose implementation is currently very distant.

At the same time, progress would only be possible if Serbia significantly changes its stance on Kosovo.

“That would require a significant shift in Serbia’s position on the Kosovo situation. However, there is some willingness within the Serbian authorities to make such a change, as evidenced by their acceptance of the Ohrid Agreement. It’s possible, but even if there are pressures for recognition, I don’t believe they will bear fruit before the complete implementation of the Ohrid Agreement,” Andric Rakic concludes.

Artificial Resuscitation

Historian Stefan Radojkovic from Belgrade offers a somewhat different perspective. He believes that European mediator Miroslav Lajcak is aware that the EU no longer has control over the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, and is thus attempting to artificially revive the process with U.S. mediation, despite the fact that it is “clinically dead.”

“It’s clear, at least based on the situation on the ground, that neither the agreement is being implemented nor will it be implemented anytime soon. First, we need to see something implemented by Pristina before we can even talk about any swift implementation. Lajcak jumped ahead without fully assessing the situation first. That’s how I would describe it,” Radojkovic tells Kosovo Online.

Radojkovic believes that Lajcak’s visit to the U.S. and the talks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly were far from coincidental, aiming to prevent the undermining of not only the dialogue but also Lajcak's own role in the process, despite the fact that it is clear to everyone that the dialogue is "clinically dead."

“This is an attempt to artificially resuscitate it, and especially to revive his role. It is evident that neither he as a representative of the European Union, nor the EU itself—specifically the Brussels administration—has any real influence over what’s happening in Kosovo or the dialogue between Pristina and Serbia,” Radojkovic states.

For this reason, Lajcak tried to enlist the help of the U.S., one of the key global actors, to apply pressure on both Pristina and Belgrade.

“He is aware that the European Union lacks certain mechanisms, and we can see this in the so-called sanctions against the Pristina administration. They exist on paper, de jure, but in practice, they are not applied, as evidenced by the fact that there has been no easing of pressure from Kurti’s administration, which clearly hasn’t happened,” Radojkovic points out.

Thus, according to Radojkovic, the meetings on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly were an opportunity for Lajcak to “reaffirm his relevance and importance, which, in reality, no longer exist.”

“We have the upcoming elections for the Pristina administration, meaning that nothing will happen before February. The U.S. elections are on the horizon, and the EU administration will also be reconstituted. So, this topic will likely be shelved until early next year, and nothing significant should be expected. In other words, he is probably trying to keep alive a corpse that has long been clinically dead,” Radojkovic concludes.