Are the rules of the game changing because of Ukraine? Reaching consensus on new EU enlargement proposals remains difficult

Recent proposals by several EU member states to modify the accession process are motivated by the situation in Ukraine, Kosovo Online's interlocutors say. However, they assess that there is currently no consensus within the European Union on the issue, and that achieving one will not be easy.

Written by: Jelena Novakov

Last week, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz proposed granting Ukraine the status of an associate member of the European Union, which would allow the country to participate in meetings of EU leaders and ministers, but without voting rights. Under this plan, candidates such as Moldova and the Western Balkan countries would not become associate members but would instead receive a lower observer status within EU institutions.

According to Merz’s proposal, observer countries would also gain greater access to EU programs and certain sectors of the Single Market, in line with their progress in implementing domestic reforms, through a process of gradual integration.

Several European leaders, including Hungary’s new Prime Minister Péter Magyar and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, opposed the plan, emphasizing that Western Balkan candidates should be integrated into the European Union before Ukraine, while noting that each country would still have to meet the accession criteria.

At the same time, Austria, the Czech Republic, Italy, Slovakia, and Slovenia called on the European Commission to reconsider how potential Western Balkan members are being incorporated into the Union’s Single Market in order to prevent an increase in Russian influence in those countries.

According to a document submitted to the Commission, this approach would be “merit-based, demand-driven, and gradual,” describing it as a model of “systematic sectoral integration.”

The authors of the document urged EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos to put forward new ideas in that direction.
Kos initially stated that she did not support the proposal put forward by Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic on integrating the countries of the region into the European Single Market and the Schengen Area without granting them veto rights.

However, in an interview with the Financial Times yesterday, she said that the Union must change its accession system to respond to Ukraine’s needs and that Brussels must be innovative. She nevertheless stressed that, regardless of any future reform of the enlargement process, there could be no compromise on the fundamental principles and standards concerning the rule of law, judicial independence, and anti-corruption measures.

Kosovo Online’s interlocutors have no doubt: the proposals to alter the accession process have been driven by developments in Ukraine.

Pressure from Ukraine

The Director of the Institute for European Policy in North Macedonia, Simonida Kacarska, believes that the European Union has intensified its engagement on enlargement due to pressure related to Ukraine, but that it is difficult to expect member states to reach agreement on substantial policy changes in the short term.

Kacarska recalled that EU member states have been working more intensively on enlargement since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but that proposals are now being further developed, leading to new models being put forward by individual member states.

Asked which proposal would represent the best solution for Western Balkan candidates, she replied that full EU membership remains by far the most favorable model.

“If that is not an option—which is itself an extremely difficult topic within the European Union because it is hard to imagine any leader building a political narrative around an alternative approach—then we should not lose sight of the fundamental goal: encouraging democratic and economic transformation. So far, apart from EU membership, we have not seen any other model capable of achieving such results,” Kacarska told Kosovo Online.

According to her, discussions within the EU are highly complex because any change to the accession model would require either a completely new institutional framework for membership or amendments to the EU treaties, which clearly stipulate that every member state enjoys the same rights and bears the same obligations.

“So the problem is not merely political agreement among member states. There are also serious legal issues that the European Union has been grappling with for a long time but which often remain outside the spotlight. In short, it is difficult to expect member states to reach agreement on major changes to enlargement policy in the near future,” Kacarska concluded.

Perhaps Something Will Be Resolved in June

The Director of the Institute for European Studies in Belgrade, Slobodan Zecevic, stated that there is currently no unified position within the European Union regarding changes to the accession process, although upcoming meetings next month may bring greater clarity.

Speaking about which scenario would be most beneficial for the countries of the region, Zecevic said that it depends on each country’s vision and ambitions.

“Some countries aspire to become full members, such as Montenegro, which believes it could join by 2028, and Albania, which hopes to do so by 2030. As for Serbia, whose negotiations are currently stalled, our government’s position is that any progress in economic integration with the EU would be beneficial, even without full membership, because that is preferable to a complete blockage in relations with the EU,” Zecevic told Kosovo Online.

Zecevic pointed out that there is still no common position within the EU regarding modified enlargement models.

“Regarding Merz’s proposal, there is considerable skepticism in certain countries, including Hungary and Austria. As for the Western Balkans integration plan, some states, such as the Netherlands and the Baltic countries, continue to have reservations about Serbia,” he explained.

A Joint Declaration as a Shortcut to the EU

Diplomat Albert Prenkaj believes that a scenario involving conditional integration of Western Balkan candidates, combined with guaranteed future EU membership, would represent a logical geopolitical and strategic move by Brussels under the current international circumstances. He added that a joint declaration on integrating the Western Balkan countries before 2030 could serve as a new “shortcut” to the European Union.

“A joint declaration on integrating the Western Balkan countries before 2030 is of essential importance as a new shortcut on the road to the EU. I believe that a political decision to integrate the Western Balkan Six, with clearly defined criteria that would have to be fulfilled, would represent a logical geopolitical and strategic realpolitik move by Brussels. The scenario would envisage conditional integration, coupled with guaranteed membership, with compliance monitored by EU member states. In this way, the EU would expand and acquire a new political and strategic profile while preventing interference from competing geopolitical interests on European soil,” Prenkaj explained.

He added that the issue of Western Balkan integration should be viewed through a geopolitical lens rather than exclusively through the formal accession criteria. He recalled that Chapter 35 of Serbia’s EU negotiations is directly linked to the Belgrade–Pristina dialogue and the implementation of the 2023 Ohrid Agreement.

“Both sides are required to develop good-neighborly relations, mutually recognize certain national symbols, and remove obstacles to membership in international organizations,” Prenkaj said, noting that Serbia has opened 22 of the 35 negotiation chapters, two of which have been provisionally closed, while Kosovo submitted its membership application in December 2022, which has yet to be considered by the Council of the European Union.

Regarding the joint opinion piece by Edi Rama and Aleksandar Vucic proposing a phased integration of the Western Balkans into the EU Single Market and the Schengen Area prior to full membership, Prenkaj stressed that integrating the region is a geopolitical and strategic security imperative for both the EU and the Western Balkans.

“Despite the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, which envisages accelerating the region’s socio-economic convergence with the EU by 2030—a date that is not fixed—I believe that the integration of the remaining European countries, including the Western Balkans, is a geopolitical and strategic security imperative for the EU and for the countries of southeastern Europe. Although it may sound unrealistic, unattainable, or even like science fiction, integration based on common criteria for all six Western Balkan countries remains the optimal geopolitical solution for Europe and the European Union,” Prenkaj said.

A Softer Approach Toward Candidates

The Editor-in-Chief of TV Syri in Tirana, Bledian Koka, stated that since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022, the European Union has considered it necessary to make exceptions to standard accession conditions for countries it views as strategically important, effectively forming a “security belt” around the Union.

“I believe the integration process will take longer than expected. What is even more concerning is not public skepticism within member states, but rather the willingness and ability of candidate countries to achieve the required standards. We are only at the beginning of that process—or, in some cases, have not yet truly begun,” Koka told Kosovo Online.

He assessed that the proposal by Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic to allow access to the European Single Market without full EU membership is an attempt to avoid deadlock caused by the Kosovo issue.

According to Koka, the positions of Vucic and Rama have been coordinated both between themselves and with certain EU member states in order to mitigate European public skepticism regarding Kosovo.

“In essence, member states are being told that the Western Balkan countries can indeed join quickly, but without acquiring additional powers beyond those linked to participation in the Single Market. They would not have veto rights, as Serbia or Albania potentially could as full members, because that could create problems connected to the Kosovo issue. That is the rationale behind the position of the two countries—to avoid any possible blockage that either side might cause due to issues that have existed for centuries. I therefore believe that the EU is handling this moment with great caution. Yet all of this is ultimately driven by geopolitical necessity and the desire to create a protective belt around the Union during these challenging times, not only for Europe and Russia, but for the world as a whole,” Koka concluded.