Arming the Region: What Scenario is the Western Balkans Preparing For?

One of the key topics during the meeting between French President Emmanuel Macron and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic was the signing of a contract for the purchase of 12 "Rafale" fighter jets for the Serbian Armed Forces. Croatia has already acquired these jets and is now considering purchasing "Leopard" tanks. Albania has significantly begun revitalizing its defense industry, while the Kosovo Security Force (KSF) is rapidly equipping itself with modern technology. The entire region is arming itself, and no one is hiding it. What scenario is the Western Balkans preparing for?

Written by: Arsenije Vuckovic

In the analysis "2024 Military Strength Ranking" by one of the leading portals on state combat capabilities, "Global Power," the United States, Russia, and China occupy the top three positions.

When it comes to the Western Balkans region, Serbia is decisively ahead of all other countries—ranking 56th, including those that are NATO members.

Croatia ranks ten places lower, while Albania is in 90th place.

The other countries in the region are almost twice as weak in terms of military strength.

North Macedonia is 110th, Bosnia and Herzegovina 116th, and Montenegro 129th.

Far behind the others is Kosovo, which is ranked 135th out of 145 countries.

In this study, regarding the "neighborhood," only Romania (47th) and Hungary (54th) are ranked higher than Serbia.

There is no doubt that Serbia will climb significantly higher on this list once it includes one of the world's best fighter jets, the "Rafale," in its arsenal.

"The contract was signed with a complete support and logistics package, with a total value of 2.7 billion euros. Twelve brand new Rafales will be owned by Serbia. They will significantly increase the operational capabilities of our army. This will represent a completely different approach. We are happy to become part of the 'Rafale club,'" Vucic said after signing the contract for the purchase of these fighter jets.

Previously, ahead of Macron's visit, Vucic stated that the purchase of "Rafales" would be a significant achievement for Serbia and would mean "a tremendous advancement in the security, combat readiness, and military power of Serbia."

"We do not provoke problems anywhere, nor do we plan to, nor do we intend to. This is a huge signal of trust between France and Serbia. We only want to protect our country, but with this, Serbia would become many times stronger," Vucic said.

In his first reaction to the purchase of the "Rafales," Croatian President Zoran Milanovic remarked that this is "Serbian business" and that France is selling "what it has, and that’s not a bad thing."

"Vucic gets away with many things, that’s their business. This is Serbian business, but in a positive sense. It doesn’t concern me or us," Milanovic said.

He added that Serbia has also purchased anti-aircraft systems from France, and reminded that it has been acquiring air defense systems from China, as well as systems from Russia, which he described as "perhaps the best in the world."

"We don't have any of that. You have a government in Serbia that is arming itself, but in reality, it's preparing for a week of some fictional war that will never happen. And Croatia is arming itself in the same way, but for less than a week," said Milanovic.

Earlier this year, Croatia purchased the same "Rafales." Also 12 units, a squadron.

The Croatian Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of the Croatian Armed Forces are currently negotiating with the German company KMW for the purchase of 30 Leopard 2A8 tanks.

At the same time, mandatory military service is being reintroduced in the country.

Croatian Defense Minister Ivan Anusic announced that this obligation will begin on January 1, and the training will last for two months.

On the other hand, in Albania, the largest NATO air base in the region was opened at the beginning of March, and just a few days ago, the Albanian government paved the way for the rise of the military industry.

All companies that invest in this sector will be exempt from taxes, which is just one of the provisions of the new law.

The Kosovo government also boasts that never before has there been so much investment in the acquisition of weapons and equipment.

Last week, Turkey donated one million dollars to increase the military capacities of the KSF.

For the first time, a Basic Infantry Officer Course was organized at the Officer School of the Defense Academy.

Minister Ejup Maqedonci stated that the mission of this course is to train and develop infantry officers to be mentally, physically, and morally prepared to lead infantry units.

Unfired Bullets and Wrestling

Senior researcher at the Belgrade Center for Security Policy, Vuk Vuksanovic, explains in an interview with Kosovo Online that the militarization of the Western Balkans does not necessarily mean the possibility of armed conflict, but he also warns that "bullets don’t have to be fired for damage to be done."

"There is still a low chance that a full-scale war could break out in the true sense of the word. NATO's presence remains strong, local countries have few resources for a prolonged conflict, and local elites would lose a lot if a conflict were to erupt. However, bullets don’t have to be fired for damage to be done," Vuksanovic cautions.

He assesses that what is happening in the Western Balkans is a "militarization of the public and political space."

"I don't believe we will see the return of war, but I do believe we will certainly see a minor militarization of the public and political space in the region. Most countries, especially Serbia and Croatia, are essentially replacing their outdated military arsenals that date back to the Yugoslav People's Army (JNA). This process is, on one hand, natural given the passage of time, but it is also being used as a political tool of influence both in the international and domestic political arenas," Vuksanovic says.

According to him, Croatia and Serbia are doing this—each for their own reasons.

"When it comes to Croatia, it is trying to demonstrate internationally that it is a loyal NATO member and that it is investing the necessary efforts and resources into strengthening its defense. As for Serbia, it is certainly using this as a form of its balancing policy between major powers and attempting to maintain maneuvering space for itself, while also trying to strengthen its negotiating position in disputes such as the status of Kosovo," Vuksanovic emphasizes.

He adds that Albania aims to use the war in Ukraine as an opportunity to gain support for strengthening its own military industry, as well as in its cooperation with the United States.

"As for Kosovo, of course, everything should still be viewed in the context of Kurti’s struggle with Belgrade and his attempts to be as provocative as possible towards Belgrade," Vuksanovic points out.

When asked whether citizens should be concerned about the militarization of the Western Balkans, this expert says that it is a natural progression of "further strengthening the fragile relations between states."

"I think that ordinary citizens should certainly be concerned, because this undoubtedly leads to a further strengthening of the political domain and the fragile relationships between states," Vuksanovic concludes.

"Balancing" with Conflict

Security expert from Pristina, Nuredin Ibishi, believes that the militarization of Western Balkan states reflects the seriousness of the situation and the mistaken interpretation that this will "balance" and prevent potential conflicts.

"The reintroduction of mandatory military service, which will be implemented in Croatia, and likely in Serbia as well, the increase in troops and personnel in the armed forces, has been announced in all countries, especially the rearmament. All of this indicates that the situation is very serious and that preventive measures should be taken to prevent a possible conflict. Simply balancing through rearmament is not happening at the right moment," Ibishi emphasizes in an interview with Kosovo Online.

He adds that Western countries do not see such "balancing" as a good solution, which is why the region has recently been visited by CIA Director William Burns and high-ranking NATO officials.

"The very fact that such high-level visits are occurring—from the most powerful security agency like the CIA, followed by other high-level visits—indicates that all necessary measures will be taken to prevent potential conflicts or a deterioration of the security situation in the region. These assessments come directly from reports and evaluations of the situation both globally and regionally," Ibishi emphasizes.

Commenting on the militarization of the Western Balkans, this expert describes it as a trend of "regional dominance," with two regional military powers standing out: Serbia and Croatia.

"Croatia has already announced that it has purchased 12 'Rafales' and plans to acquire 'Leopard' tanks. This rearmament follows a trend of dominance in the region, particularly between the two slightly larger military powers, Serbia and Croatia," Ibishi points out.

He is also convinced that French President Emmanuel Macron's visit to Serbia focused on calming tensions between Belgrade and Zagreb, as well as the purchase of "Rafale" fighter jets. Additionally, he believes that the topic of discussion included the extradition of Milan Radoicic and the group linked to the events of September 24 last year in Banjska.

New Rules

Military analyst Aleksandar Radic told Kosovo Online that the militarization of the Western Balkans should be viewed in the broader context of global rearmament, and that in this region, "any dark scenario is easy to imagine."

"We have entered an era of wars and armies. What we thought was behind us when the Cold War ended is now once again a value system that strongly influences politics. Militarization, the idea that a political problem can be solved through violent means," Radic says.

He recalls that conventional warfare in Europe had not been a popular topic for the last three decades, but then everything changed with the war in Ukraine.

"It was believed that the danger of new wars no longer existed in Europe, that the world was now different, and that the way the EU and NATO function was strong enough to prevent armed conflicts. And everything changed on February 24, 2022. New rules came into force, and now in European countries, armies are being strengthened again, battalions that had been disbanded are being reestablished. In the wave of enthusiasm for the image of a peaceful and stable world in the 1990s, many countries are now considering the reintroduction of mandatory military service. Naturally, along with that, new weapons are being purchased," Radic explains.

He explains that for the countries of the former Yugoslavia, the acquisition of weapons and military equipment was initially not politically motivated but was driven by the fact that they were dealing with resources that had been exhausted.

"The inherited weapons and military equipment primarily came from the former Yugoslavia. These resources have been completely depleted. The question then becomes whether it is worth investing in repairs and modernization or if it's time to move on," Radic explains.

He notes that Serbia was the first in the region to begin the process of renewing its military resources, and now all countries are undergoing modernization.

"Serbia was the first to start modernization due to the necessity of replacing old equipment. Somehow, on that wave, and with the dramatic shifts in global politics in the meantime, the question in other countries is no longer 'why' but rather 'when' and 'how much.' Money is being allocated. Everyone is in the process of modernization, and everyone is trying to find as much new equipment as possible for their military," Radic elaborates.

He adds that although most Western Balkan countries are NATO members, in practice, each of them balances their military forces in relation to Serbia.

"In the Balkans, most countries are NATO members, and within that framework, they are supposed to share responsibilities and have security guarantees. Then comes the 'big but.' The truth, which no one from these countries will admit, is that they always look towards the Serbs, towards the Serbian issue as a factor relevant for balancing their military forces with Serbia. This is a politically incorrect view; it's politically incorrect to talk about it, but it's clear that if Croatia decides to move a battalion from Nashice to Beli Manastir and that battalion has American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, it sends a message to Serbia," says Radic.

He adds that there are also many belligerent statements in Serbia, but that the countries in the region, especially those in NATO, still view rearmament through the lens of "strengthening the idea of protecting national interests."

"NATO is a factor that actually acts supranationally, and at least in the current situation, helps to calm things down. However, the fact remains that every country of the former Yugoslavia will strive to be as strong as possible militarily, and public opinion in these countries often enjoys comparing 'who is stronger.' The favorite Serbian topic is to compare their strength with the Croats, while the favorite Croatian topic is how strong the Serbs are," Radic emphasizes.

When asked whether the militarization of the Western Balkans should be a cause for concern, he highlights that the key problem is that the wars of the 1990s have not yet been fully resolved.

"The Balkans are unstable, and nothing new has happened in the region where the wars of the 1990s have not been concluded. We do not have stable democratic countries; there is a slide towards autocracy, a radical slide. In such an environment, any dark scenario is easy to imagine," Radic concludes.