Candidate status for EU membership – Kosovo between aspirations and reality

In terms of EU integration, Kosovo has formally remained at the same point it was two years ago when it applied for full membership in the European Union. Although Kosovo government officials, particularly in recent weeks, have claimed that many reforms have been completed and that the necessary criteria for Kosovo to be granted candidate status have been met, analysts interviewed by Kosovo Online do not believe this will happen in the foreseeable future.

Written by Dusica Radeka Djordjevic

Before deciding whether to grant someone candidate status for EU membership, it is necessary to complete a European Commission questionnaire, which can include up to 4,000 questions regarding the fulfillment of political and economic criteria, the level of alignment with EU legislation, the ability to implement European standards, and more. However, this questionnaire has not yet been sent to Pristina.

For instance, comparing Kosovo's progress to that of Montenegro or Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo is already significantly behind. Montenegro submitted its application for EU membership in December 2008, and by July 2009, it had received a European Commission questionnaire with 2,178 questions, although the number doubled when sub-questions were included. Bosnia and Herzegovina received its questionnaire (with 3,242 questions) ten months after submitting its membership application in February 2016.

There are no shortcuts in this procedure, so Kosovo will need to roll up its sleeves when it finally receives the questionnaire, as obtaining candidate status will depend on the quality of the responses, making this questionnaire a sort of test.

Kosovo's request for EU membership was submitted by Kosovo's Prime Minister Albin Kurti on December 15, 2022, who described it as a historic day for Kosovo and a "great day for European democracy."

Currently, Serbia, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Turkey, and Ukraine hold EU candidate status.

Nemanja Todorovic Stiplija, Director of the Center for Contemporary Politics and editor of the European Western Balkans portal, tells Kosovo Online that under current circumstances, he does not see the possibility of the European Union Council granting Kosovo candidate status for EU membership.

Stiplija says that although there were earlier expectations that Kosovo might already be an EU membership candidate by now, there is no clear outlook on the next steps the EU Council will take in this case.

"This is because there are EU restrictive measures against Kosovo, and there is a stalemate in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, where Kosovo is clearly not fulfilling all the agreements from the dialogue. No one expected the dialogue process to last this long, and that a legally binding agreement would still not be reached. On the other hand, we don't know what position individual EU member states that have not recognized Kosovo will take when this decision is made. They may oppose Kosovo's membership. In any case, the next step is for the Council to provide formal or informal instructions to Kosovo to make its membership application credible," Stiplija pointed out.

Later, when the EU Council gives the green light, as he added, the European Commission will begin the process of assessing whether Kosovo can become a candidate for membership.

"The first step in that process is certainly the Questionnaire with more than 3,000 questions that Kosovo would need to receive from the European Commission. However, from today's perspective, it seems that it is too early for all of this," Stiplija said.

Stiplija also says that since the beginning of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, enthusiasm for admitting new members into the EU has grown significantly, which has led to some countries, some of which had been in the process longer and others shorter, gaining candidate status, and that it is realistic to expect this could happen for Kosovo as well, but he notes that there are also problems.

"The Kosovo Government mentions some successes in the past period that might lead to Kosovo receiving the European Commission Questionnaire, but there are issues, such as with the reform agenda. Kosovo was among the first countries to submit the reform agenda to the European Commission, but the core of the reform agenda, which is access to the common market through the common regional market, is currently a stumbling block for Kosovo. We know Germany's position that Kosovo is not meeting all the conditions, or rather, that it does not want to meet all the conditions for access to the common market through CEFTA. Therefore, I don't see Kosovo being given any leeway in further steps toward European integration or candidate status," Stiplija concluded.

Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s statements that "the time is right for Kosovo to receive its 'deserved candidate status'" for EU membership are symbolic, according to Marko Dasic, Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade. He says that these statements serve to calm the domestic public and signal that Kosovo is focused on European integration in its foreign policy.

"With these statements, Kurti is trying to bring the issue of Kosovo's EU integration to the agenda of the newly formed European Parliament and the new European Commission. I think he himself is aware, as is the rest of the political establishment in Pristina, that no constructive steps can be expected here, given that there are numerous prerequisites for Euro-Atlantic and other international system institution integrations. We all know what happened with the Council of Europe, and we all know what is happening with certain, mostly economic, regional multilateral organizations," Dasic told Kosovo Online.

He concludes that everything in terms of practical policies in recent times does not support Albin Kurti's symbolic statement.

Ilir Deda, an associate at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna, also said that the consideration of granting Kosovo EU candidate status is not currently on the table in Brussels, despite Kosovo officials believing the time has come for it.

"Anyone can have expectations. Regardless of such requests, the European Union and Germany have concrete expectations from the Kosovo Government, as well as decisions that need to be made ahead of the Berlin Process Leaders' Summit on October 14, which might then open the door for further discussions regarding Kosovo's EU membership request," Deda told Kosovo Online.

He pointed out that this issue had been "part of a package" earlier this year, but that the Kosovo Government had rejected it.

"This was considered when Kosovo's membership in the Council of Europe was a current issue, and when Kosovo was asked to submit a draft Statute of the Community of Serb Municipalities to the Constitutional Court for review. At that time, part of the broader agreement package included the consideration of the EU’s decision on Kosovo’s request for membership, which Kosovo submitted two years ago. Now it is no longer on the table, and I don't believe it is being considered within the EU," Deda stated.