Cooperation between Kosovo, Albania, and Croatia: How will it work in practice and what are its motivations?

A memorandum of defense cooperation signed between Albania, Kosovo, and Croatia has been interpreted by Serbia’s leadership as a move that undermines regional stability and a provocative initiative that violates UN Security Council Resolution 1244. The signatories of the document claim that its goal is to strengthen regional stability through knowledge exchange and cooperation in the military industry. Experts interviewed by Kosovo Online suggest that in practice, the focus will be on strengthening the arms and ammunition production industry. However, to move to the next level and establish an alliance, NATO, the EU, and the OSCE would have to give their approval.

Written by: Dusica Radeka Djordjevic

The memorandum was signed on Tuesday in Tirana by Albania’s Minister of Defense Piro Vengu, Croatia’s Minister of Defense Ivan Anusic, and Kosovo’s Minister of Defense Ejup Maqedonci.

Vengu stated that Kosovo and Albania have much to learn from Croatia, while Maqedonci emphasized that the cooperation is not meant to threaten anyone but rather to send a message to those who dare to destabilize the Western Balkans. Anusic noted that the cooperation will primarily focus on intelligence systems and the development of the defense industry, also hinting at the possibility of Bulgaria joining the initiative.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučic reacted strongly, stating: “We understand the message, and we are very concerned about what they are doing.” He discussed the matter with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, arguing that the memorandum violates the 1996 Agreement on Subregional Arms Control.

Serbia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that it would urgently request detailed explanations from the foreign ministries of Croatia and Albania regarding the signing of the memorandum. The ministry emphasized that, despite its military neutrality, Serbia actively combats terrorism and modern security threats and had been willing to consider cooperation in good faith with Croatia and Albania.

"However, this initiative, executed without Serbia but with Pristina, is an open provocation," the Serbian MFA stated.

In response to Belgrade’s concerns, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic dismissed any hostile intent behind the memorandum, saying: "It is a memorandum on cooperation; there is nothing hostile about it."

However, Serbia’s Commission for Missing Persons President Veljko Odalovic labeled the agreement a “provocative declaration aimed at destabilizing the region.”

"Kosovo is not a state. This is a flaw in any agreement that aligns military or any other cooperation in this manner between states. The declaration is highly provocative because it conditionally creates a new security force, as they see it, involving an entity that, according to Resolution 1244, cannot have an army. Kosovo, with its temporary institutions, does not have an army. The fact that Croatia and Albania, along with their supporters, ignore this is a future threat to regional security."

Odalovic further argued that the declaration serves no other purpose than to create the perception of a significant military alliance.

"What kind of security guarantee are they providing in terms of regional stability and peace? Nothing good can come from this. I hope that UNMIK and EULEX, which oversee certain responsibilities in Kosovo and Metohija, will issue warnings about this threat," he concluded.

NATO's Role and Regional Implications

Odalovic stressed that NATO must first clarify its position on the matter, as it is the only force guaranteeing peace and security in Kosovo.

"If NATO has its troops there, why does it allow anyone to sign declarations that essentially take over its role and responsibilities? Are they present there or not? That is the first question for them. This also requires a response from the European administration, and I believe the U.S. will have to comment as well, especially given its recent critical stance on many of Kurti’s actions and NATO’s role in Kosovo," Odalovic stated.

Despite some calling this agreement a military alliance, Nikola Lunic, Executive Director of the Council for Strategic Policies, told Kosovo Online that this is not the case.

"For it to be a military alliance, NATO and the EU would need to approve it, as they are geopolitically central to Europe. Additionally, the OSCE, which oversees arms control in the region, would also need to agree, and we have not seen that happen," Lunic explained.

He added that such memorandums are often symbolic and serve as legal frameworks for deeper military cooperation. He emphasized that Croatia and Albania recognize Kosovo as an independent entity, which allows them to sell arms and military equipment to it, independent of the memorandum.

According to Lunic, the EU and NATO have decided to ramp up weapons and military equipment production, as seen at the latest NATO summit. In this context, the cooperation between these three countries would be of strategic interest to both NATO and the EU. He warned that Serbia must be mindful of these developments and consider strengthening its own defense industry ties with the EU and NATO.

"Serbia’s defense industry is at a strategic level, not just operational or tactical like the one Pristina is trying to build," Lunic pointed out.

At the same time, he warned that a new security landscape is emerging in the Balkans, especially as Kosovo’s Security Forces prepare to transform into the Kosovo Armed Forces by 2028.

"This will certainly not contribute to regional stability if we continue an unchecked arms race. Our societies and states in the region neither have the capacity nor the financial resources for such an arms race," Lunic cautioned.

He also noted the deep-rooted mistrust among Balkan nations, pointing out that Serbia’s military advancements, as recognized by Global Firepower, have been met with concern by neighboring countries.

"Military neutrality is declared in Serbia, but the paradox is that we have never sought recognition of this neutrality. This raises concerns about regional security and stability," Lunic added, arguing that Serbia’s military neutrality is unsustainable.

Tirana-based political analyst Ben Andoni sees the Albania-Kosovo-Croatia memorandum as a step toward a future alliance, aligned with new European geopolitical realities.

"We are talking about two NATO members and KFOR, which is managed by NATO. The EU sees Kosovo as a burden and will have to handle its future, especially if U.S. troop presence decreases. In this sense, the memorandum is a relief for Europe," Andoni argued.

He believes that Zagreb, Tirana, and Pristina share common interests due to their respective disputes with Belgrade.

"This agreement should be viewed in light of recent rhetoric about Serbia’s armament, Croatia’s military capacity buildup, and Albania’s defense enhancements. It appears the focus is on strengthening the arms and ammunition production industry," Andoni said.

He also suggested that the agreement gains significance if American forces reduce their presence in the region.

"Kosovo could become one of the most vulnerable areas if U.S. troops leave KFOR. It remains uncertain whether troops from other countries would replace them, and the moral weight of American presence would be difficult to substitute," Andoni noted.

Kosovo-based European law professor Avni Mazreku sees the agreement as a reaction to Serbia’s large-scale military investments.

"Serbia has the strongest military in the region. It is not threatened by neighboring states and is not part of any international military alliance. It can be argued that Serbia has no real need for such extensive military investments. These large investments have likely pushed these three countries toward signing such an agreement," Mazreku opined.

He highlighted that Croatia has recently become a major player in the arms industry, while Albania and Kosovo have minimal military-industrial output.

"Croatia can supply Albania’s military needs as a NATO member, particularly with NATO-standard weapons. Given Kosovo’s limited options for securing quality military equipment, this agreement makes strategic sense," Mazreku concluded.