Diaspora as the "Golden Vote" in the Elections

Ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled for February 9, Kosovo’s leading parties have been busy campaigning from Austria to America. The diaspora is being showered with kind words and promises, and, as analysts suggest, the votes from this segment of the electorate could tip the scales to decide who will form the government.

By: Dusica Radeka Djordjevic

In the past month, Kosovo's Prime Minister Albin Kurti and representatives of his Self-Determination movement have held meetings with citizens living in Norway, Austria, Germany, Sweden, France, and beyond. The Democratic Party of Kosovo (DPK) candidate for prime minister, Bedri Hamza, met with the diaspora in Italy, while representatives of the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) were active in Vienna and Chicago.

As parties strive to win as many votes as possible from abroad, analyst Petrit Zogaj suggests revoking voting rights for Kosovo’s diaspora. He believes it is immoral for someone living in London, Berlin, or Paris to decide who will govern those in Pristina.

“Diaspora members can have an opinion on what’s happening in Kosovo and how it is governed, but they should not be voting and directly influencing Kosovo’s political system. This measure would reduce emotional manipulation,” Zogaj noted.

In the 2021 parliamentary elections, 816,421 voters cast ballots, and from the ballots sent by mail, Self-Determination received 44,252 votes, DPK received 5,321, Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) got 4,287, and AAK received 1,112 votes. For example, AAK received a total of 62,111 votes in that election, showing that the diaspora is a significant resource.

Analyst Artan Muhaxhiri told Kosovo Online that all parties aim to secure votes from the diaspora. Since opposition parties are now more actively engaged in the United States and Europe than they were in previous elections, he believes this could influence the election results.

“In the previous elections, people flew in and took buses to vote for Kurti, which was one of the factors that helped him secure over 50% of the votes because LDK, DPK, and AAK were passive and did not invest in the diaspora. They’ve learned their lesson and now want to change that,” Muhaxhiri said.

This time, as Muhaxhiri adds, all parties aim to revive their connections with the diaspora and leverage them for political gain.

“They’re traveling to America and Europe. Representatives of the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) are reconnecting with people who were part of their structures in the 1990s, while the Democratic Party of Kosovo (DPK) and the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) are reaching out to people connected to the war and former commanders. However, I believe this is merely provisional, as no party has a genuine plan to integrate the diaspora or to build connections with businesspeople and entrepreneurs. Instead, they aim to win votes through patriotic rhetoric and populism,” Muhaxhiri emphasized.

Political analyst Nexhmedin Spahiu believes that while voter turnout among the diaspora is generally not high, these votes could be decisive in the upcoming parliamentary elections on February 9.

He also stated that Albin Kurti enjoys the most significant support within the diaspora.
“Albin Kurti has an absolute majority support among the diaspora, while the Democratic League of Kosovo and the Democratic Party of Kosovo receive relatively little. Although the diaspora is large, the percentage of those who vote is not that high, but it can still determine who will be in power. Therefore, the diaspora plays a meaningful role in the elections,” Spahiu told Kosovo Online.

Regarding the view that the diaspora should not be allowed to vote because they lack insight into the true situation in Kosovo, Milos Pavkovic, an associate at the European Policy Center in Belgrade, explained that the question of whether the diaspora should vote is an old debate in political science.

“In comparative practice, there are various examples, including some extreme ones, such as Croatia, where there are reserved seats in parliament for political representatives of the diaspora, or cases where the diaspora’s voting rights are restricted to certain elections—whether they can vote only in general elections or also in local elections. This is an open debate, and each country regulates this issue individually. It’s true that citizens living abroad are often less informed than those living in the country and make less informed decisions. However, since they have citizenship and the right to vote, they often exercise that right,” Pavkovic told Kosovo Online.

The diaspora's votes can be the deciding factor in Kosovo's elections, which has reignited debates among the political elite, experts, and academia.

Milos Pavkovic notes that surveys from previous elections indicate a significant portion of the diaspora supports Albin Kurti's Self-Determination Movement. With the upcoming February 9 elections, Kurti and his movement believe that every diaspora vote could be crucial in achieving a majority.

"Considering that in the previous elections, Albin Kurti secured an absolute majority, over 50% of the votes, and that his current ratings have declined to below 50%, he is evidently counting on the diaspora to help him surpass the majority threshold," Pavkovic explains.

Pavkovic also recalls that when discussions about potential early elections during the summer arose, Kurti considered whether the diaspora would vote for him in sufficient numbers, given that it was vacation season, a time when many people visit Kosovo.

"The diaspora definitely plays an important role in elections in Kosovo, especially now with absolute support for Self-Determination at stake. Additionally, the role of the Albanian diaspora is significant for Kosovo from an economic perspective, as the majority of the money coming into Kosovo comes from the diaspora," Pavkovic notes.