Does Trump’s choice of associates indicate the future U.S. course toward Belgrade and Pristina?

The initial enthusiasm in Serbia over Trump’s victory slightly subsided as the list of his closest associates began to take shape, given that many of them had previously leaned more toward Pristina than Belgrade. For analysts speaking to Kosovo Online, the broader picture—the potential shift in U.S. foreign policy—is far more important than individual personnel choices. They caution that U.S. policy toward the Western Balkans, including Belgrade and Pristina, will largely depend on events during the transition from the outgoing to the incoming administration in Washington.

Written by: Arsenije Vuckovic

Donald Trump is gradually finalizing his team, which will assume leadership of the U.S. after January 20. He has already selected candidates for key positions in the State Department, including former Florida Senator Marco Rubio, nominated for Secretary of State, and former Attorney General Matthew Whitaker, slated to become the new U.S. Ambassador to NATO.

Rubio, once a sharp critic of Trump, is known for his statement that the U.S. has "stopped Nazis, communists, and other evils" over the past century—referring specifically to "ethnic cleansing by Serbia in Kosovo."

Whitaker went even further, visiting Kosovo in 2019 to support former Democratic Party of Kosovo leader Kadri Veseli during election rallies. Veseli later ended up in The Hague, facing serious charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity as a senior officer of the former Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA).

According to former NATO spokesperson Jamie Shea, however, Rubio’s appointment might have limited consequences for U.S. policy in the Western Balkans, particularly regarding Kosovo.

"He lacks Antony Blinken’s history in Europe. So, I don’t expect him to be particularly concerned with the Western Balkans and Kosovo," Shea said.

Risks During the Transition

Political analyst Obrad Kesic warns that the situation could change as many actors, including Pristina’s authorities, may try to exploit the transition period in the U.S. to pressure the new Trump administration into continuing the current policies.

"We’ve seen this in Ukraine with outgoing President Biden’s decision to deploy new long-range missiles, leading to escalation," Kesic told Kosovo Online.

He considers the period until Trump’s inauguration on January 20, and the subsequent six to eight months, as critical. During this vacuum, many—including Pristina—will attempt to impose their interests.

"It will take six to eight months for the new administration to fully establish its team to implement the announced policies. This provides an opening that not only Pristina but many others will try to exploit," Kesic noted.

The key goal, he emphasized, is to position oneself favorably with the new administration, even if it means taking provocative actions to attract attention.

"This means they will provoke various crises, hoping that inertia will compel the new administration to side with and support them. They don’t expect the current officials to change their stance on every issue in the Western Balkans, giving them an advantage for the next six to eight months before new people come in," Kesic explained.

Despite some candidates openly favoring Pristina, Kesic insists the new U.S. administration is good news for Serbia.

"For Belgrade, this is good news—not only because Washington’s pressure regarding relations with Russia will diminish with the new administration but also because those aligned with the previous U.S. foreign policy of aggressive support for Kosovo’s so-called independence and internal conflicts in Bosnia and Herzegovina will lose influence," Kesic said.

A Key Shift in U.S. Policy Kesic sees a fundamental shift in the State Department’s approach to Serbian national interests.

"Official America, particularly the State Department, has historically taken positions opposing Serbian interests, implementing policies from the 1990s where every nationalism in the Western Balkans was acceptable except Serbian nationalism. Serbian national interests were always portrayed as threats to peace and stability in the region. This will no longer happen, and that’s very significant," Kesic emphasized.

When asked whether this shift could extend to Rubio or Whitaker’s potential roles as Secretary of State and Ambassador to NATO, Kesic advised interpreting their past statements within a broader context.

"What was said in the past cannot be taken to mean these individuals will implement the same policies in a context where globalism no longer dominates U.S. ideology, and interventions—whether in the Middle East or the former Yugoslavia—are deprioritized," Kesic said.

He explained that Trump’s foreign policy is explicitly anti-globalist, with strong support from Vice President-elect J.D. Vance.

"In this context, Rubio, once known for his statements fully supporting U.S. policy in the former Yugoslavia, is now the only senator who has criticized U.S. sanctions," Kesic added.

He believes Trump’s presidency will usher in a "new wave" of U.S. policy change over the past 70 years, with goals that align with the interests of the Serbian people in the Western Balkans.

"We are witnessing a new wave through this movement led by President Trump, advocating a different global role for America than it has had over the last 70 years. Under Trump’s leadership, America will deprioritize regions outside its core interests, including the Western Balkans. If the key goals outlined in the campaign are implemented, it will benefit not only Serbia and Republic of Srpska but the entire Serbian population in the region," Kesic concluded.

Trump has clearly defined his foreign policy as anti-globalist, and he will enjoy the full support of incoming U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance in implementing this vision.

"Under these circumstances and recent statements, for instance, by Senator Rubio—who was previously known for positions interpreted as fully supporting U.S. policy in the former Yugoslavia—he is now the only senator to have critically opposed U.S. sanctions," said analyst Obrad Kesic.

Kesic believes Trump’s presidency will bring a "new wave" of change in U.S. foreign policy, breaking away from a 70-year tradition, and that his campaign goals align perfectly with the interests of the Serbian people in the Western Balkans.

"We are witnessing a new wave driven by a movement led by President Trump, who envisions a different global role for America than it has held over the last 70 years. Under the new president's leadership, America will no longer focus on regions that are not central to U.S. interests, including the Western Balkans. If the campaign's key goals are implemented, this will undoubtedly benefit Serbia, Republic of Srpska, and the Serbian people throughout the region," Kesic concluded.

"Playing Multiple Chairs"

Petar Donic, from the New Third Way, told Kosovo Online that the Trump administration is likely to pursue a "playing multiple chairs" policy—simultaneously fostering good relations with Serbia while supporting Kosovo.

"We can expect a continuation of traditional U.S. foreign policy. During Biden's last term and Trump's tenure, America, for the first time in a long while, expressed a desire and took the initiative to improve relations with Serbia. This would inevitably entail some form of resolution to the Kosovo issue. What exactly will happen remains unpredictable," Donic said.

He added that the selection of candidates indicates that U.S. foreign policy on Kosovo is unlikely to change in key aspects.

"The choice of hardliners in the Republican Party's front ranks suggests we won’t see familiar faces who were more intensively involved in the region during the last term, when the Ukraine crisis wasn’t an issue. Those individuals are now elsewhere. We can conclude that U.S. policy towards Serbia and Kosovo will continue in the direction that Serbia must recognize Kosovo in some form," Donic emphasized.

Focus on Foreign Policy

Marko Miskeljin, an associate of the Center for Social Stability, stated that Trump and his new administration have no interest in escalating tensions or fostering new conflicts in Europe. However, he noted that there would likely be a much greater focus on the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue than under previous administrations.

"I think it will certainly be more of a focus than it was for previous administrations, depending primarily on the behavior of key actors, particularly the Pristina administration. The composition of the Pristina administration after upcoming elections will largely determine the level of commitment from Trump's administration. Of course, escalating tensions or potential new conflicts in Europe are not in Trump’s interest, even though Republicans historically focus more on the Middle East and Asia than Europe," Miskeljin said in an interview with Kosovo Online.

Miskeljin identified a critical issue in the future relationship between Washington and Brussels, particularly in light of the behavior of key EU members ahead of the U.S. elections.

"We’ll see how that cooperation unfolds. It’s fortunate that there are European leaders who have good communication with Trump. There’s a bloc led by Viktor Orban, who openly supported Trump during the campaign. Trump often cited Orban as an example of good practice. This bloc also includes Slovakia’s Prime Minister Fico and Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic. Leaders who have already established contact with Trump will undoubtedly have better opportunities for negotiations and benefits for their states and people than others in Europe," Miskeljin explained.

On Candidate Nominations

Miskeljin advised against interpreting Trump’s key appointments from a biased perspective, emphasizing that his cabinet is not formed ad hoc but planned well in advance.

"Trump’s approach to forming his current cabinet is quite different from the previous one, primarily because he now has the experience of four years in Washington and a clear sense of the personnel he needs. This cabinet wasn’t assembled overnight; some members were likely chosen years ago, particularly figures like Suzi Weiss, who will handle operational aspects of his administration," Miskeljin said.

He reminded that the U.S. president directly oversees not only the appointment of cabinet members but also around 10,000 federal employees.

"When it comes to positions that are most significant for Serbian citizens, there were high expectations for Richard Grenell to play a key role, possibly as National Security Advisor or Secretary of State. However, we must remember that while this region is critical to us, it is not a priority for the U.S.," Miskeljin emphasized.

Commenting on nominations of individuals like Matthew Whitaker and Marco Rubio, who have historically supported Pristina over Belgrade, Miskeljin argued that Serbia should not focus too much on these appointments. Instead, he suggested Pristina should reflect on its open support for Trump’s opponent, Kamala Harris.

"The fact that someone had pro-Pristina views earlier in their career or was seen in certain photographs shouldn’t consume too much of our time. Serbia should continue its diplomatic efforts under President Vucic and its diplomatic corps to deepen ties with the U.S. and not get distracted by trivial matters. A selfie of Albin Kurti with Kamala Harris during the Democratic convention could have more significant consequences than any photo of a CIA director or others potentially taken out of context," Miskeljin explained.

The Overlooked Tulsi Gabbard

Miskeljin noted that Serbian media overlooked Tulsi Gabbard's nomination as Director of National Intelligence.

"Gabbard’s stance on NATO's intervention in Yugoslavia and events in the 1990s aligns more closely with Belgrade’s views than those of Pristina or the broader region," Miskeljin said.

Balancing Optimism and Realism

Miskeljin concluded that disappointment among some in Serbia reflects unrealistic expectations.

"On global issues that interest our public, there’s often a shift from extreme euphoria to extreme disappointment, as with Trump’s election. However, it’s essential to objectively assess the overall situation," Miskeljin said.