Election date in Kosovo still unknown: Is Kurti's word final?

In a meeting between Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani and the leaders of opposition parties, it was proposed that parliamentary elections in Kosovo be held at the end of January or the beginning of February next year. Although the president of the ruling Self-Determination party and current Prime Minister Albin Kurti did not attend the meeting, Kosovo Online's interlocutors believe that his word will be final regarding the election date.

Although the opposition was unanimous that early elections must be held in Kosovo before the current government's term expires, their views on how to achieve this differed.

The Democratic Party of Kosovo favors going to elections as soon as possible by dissolving the Assembly, while the Democratic League of Kosovo and the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo advocate for Kurti to resign or be dismissed.

Kurti, aware of the large majority he holds in the Kosovo Parliament, stated that he is ready at any moment to assist the opposition in holding elections if the opposition parties come to an agreement.

No agreement has been reached, so neither of the two opposition scenarios has materialized so far. It seems that Kurti's government will complete this term, which lasts until February of next year.

The proposed dates for the elections are January 26, or February 2, 9, or 16, 2025. However, Self-Determination has yet to comment on this matter.

One thing is certain: sooner or later, elections will be held, and Kosovo Online's interlocutors believe that the ruling Self-Determination party is in a strong position and will likely win another term.

However, there is a possibility that the US, dissatisfied with Kurti's policies, will "get involved" and ensure that no political party secures a majority.

"A winning team doesn't need to change"

Ivan Nikolic, Director of the NGO "Communication for Social Development" (CSD), believes that the ruling Self-Determination party of Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti is in a very strong position, and if it wins another term in the upcoming elections, Kurti will not change his policy, especially toward the Serbs in Kosovo.

Nikolic points out that according to the views of Kurti's Self-Determination Party and its supporters, he is "achieving victories," especially in his stance toward the Serbian community in Kosovo.

"Given the current balance of power and the political situation in Kosovo, especially regarding the opposition, I think it suits Kurti for the elections to happen as soon as possible, because he is in an extremely good position. From his perspective, and from the perspective of his supporters, he is achieving victories, especially when it comes to his nationalist stance toward the Serbian community, considering everything that is happening in the north and everything else," Nikolic emphasized.

Nikolic does not expect significant changes if the Self-Determination Movement wins the elections, and he believes that its supporters care more about "confronting" the Serbs and Serbia than about the unfulfilled promises during Kurti's four-year term.

"People who make predictions believe that Self-Determination will position itself well and take power, and they will use the same policy, because 'a winning team doesn't need to change,' and it appears that their supporters prefer, for example, the fact that goods from Serbia will not be imported over the fact that corruption remains at a high level," Nikolic said.

He also doesn't believe that opposition parties will unite against Kurti. In his opinion, after the elections, everything will remain the same as it has been.

He believes that Kurti will not change his rhetoric during the election campaign.

"I am convinced that his rhetoric will remain the same. Even some serious figures from the international community haven't been able to influence him, so the opposition certainly can't either. The opposition can use this against Kurti by arguing that he has strained relations with the international community, but in the end, he doesn't suffer any consequences, and this will not be a strong argument against him," Nikolic concluded.

The US is investing in other candidates

Srdjan Barac, an associate of the Center for Social Stability, expects a turbulent pre-election campaign in Kosovo and believes that the United States will "get involved," given their dissatisfaction with the policies of current Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti.

"The election date has been under negotiation for a long time. The Democratic Party of Kosovo and the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo were interested in reaching an agreement. We will see if Kurti will have the final say and whether he will try to maximize his political capital by setting a date that is most favorable to him," Barac emphasizes.

He adds that the US, dissatisfied with Kurti's policies, will invest in other candidates in the elections, which, he notes, could result in no party achieving the necessary majority in the upcoming elections.

"I think the pre-election campaign will be turbulent because I believe the US will get somewhat involved, as they are not satisfied with Kurti. While we might expect a harsher reaction from them, it is unrealistic for that to happen because Kosovo is a US creation. But Kurti's behavior, where he disregards both soft and harsh warnings and does things that are not justified by the State Department or other power centers, has gone too far. I believe that in the pre-election campaign, the US will invest in other candidates and try to create a turbulent atmosphere, which could lead to a situation where no one has a majority," Barac says.

He believes that such a situation would be most advantageous for the US because it would allow them to control the situation.

Barac also emphasizes that there is no party in Kosovo that will be more understanding of the Serbs.

"Whatever happens, the US has made a significant mistake. The idea of expelling Serbs, or consolidating all elements of statehood across the entire territory, is an agenda of all ruling political options. For Serbs in this process, there is no factor that will be more reasonable and better for the future. However, a situation where no one has a majority might be better because then we can expect the US to more easily influence the processes, although I mainly criticize them for the fact that the policy of expelling Serbs is supported by over 50% of the population. If they don't implement a clearer policy of pressure during the pre-election campaign, I think the situation will not be favorable for the normalization of relations," Barac says.

Without the necessary majority in the Parliament

Diplomat Blerim Canaj believes that elections in Kosovo will be held at the regular time, in February, as the opposition is too weak for them to be held earlier, while Prime Minister Albin Kurti has a majority in the Kosovo parliament, so everything depends on him. However, he thinks that Kurti will not receive the same level of support in the upcoming elections as he did in the previous ones.

"Early elections can only happen if Albin Kurti wants them, as he has a majority in the parliament, so I expect the elections to be held in February, as scheduled,” Canaj told Kosovo Online.

He emphasizes that Kurti has lost voter support due to unfulfilled promises and that after the elections, he will not have the parliamentary majority he had in this term.

Regarding coalitions for forming the new government, Canaj says that it depends on the number of votes the opposition parties will receive.

"As for expectations from the next elections, I can say that Kurti will no longer have the majority he currently has, and since we have not seen so far that he wants or can do something for the economy, healthcare, or education. I don't believe he will retain the majority he had, and now, whether he will enter into a coalition with another party, or whether the second and third parties will form the government, all depends on how much trust the citizens place in them,” Canaj emphasized.

He added that after the elections, Kosovo must do "something" about the formation of the Community of Serb Municipalities. However, he stresses that this must not be in contradiction with the Constitution of Kosovo.

"No one wants to take that risk, especially Kurti, who promised that there would be no Association, but there must be an Association because we all know that it has already been accepted. Starting next year, Kosovo must do something. The Serbian people must understand that they are part of Kosovo, and Kosovo must fulfill its promises, but not against the Constitution," Canaj added.