Elections to the European Parliament: Can the rise of the right change EU policy?

In the elections taking place from June 6th to 9th, around 400 million voters in the European Union have the opportunity to elect 720 new Members of the European Parliament. Kosovo Online interlocutors assess that these elections will formalize the strengthening of right-wing parties in Europe, but that this phenomenon will not have much impact on the future foreign policy of the EU, especially regarding the Western Balkans and the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue.

Prema istraživanju Juronjuza i Ipsosa krajnja i evroskeptična desnica na izborima za Evropski parlament u junu bi mogla da ostvari pobedu u šest od 27 zemalja članica EU.

Stranke koje pripadaju ekstremno desničarskoj grupi Identitet i demokratija (ID) su na putu da pobede u Austriji, Belgiji, Francuskoj i Holandiji, dok se evroskeptičnim konzervativcima i reformirstima pobeda smeši u Italiji i Letoniji.

According to research by Euronews and Ipsos, the far-right and Eurosceptic right-wing parties in the European Parliament elections in June could win in six out of the 27 EU member states.

Parties belonging to the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group are on track to win in Austria, Belgium, France, and the Netherlands, while Eurosceptic conservatives and reformists could win in Italy and Latvia.

The European People's Party of the center-right could win impressively in 12 member states and continue to be the largest faction in the parliament.

In a survey involving around 26,000 eligible voters in 18 EU countries, the "biggest losers" would be leftist factions, with the forecast that socialists and center-right democrats could celebrate only in four countries: Denmark, Lithuania, Malta, and Sweden.

Despite the undeniable strengthening of the right-wing bloc of parties, it is expected that pro-European parties in the European Parliament could secure 63 percent of the parliamentary seats, maintaining the current majority.

The head of the delegation of the Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) in the European Parliament, Harald Vilimsky, assesses for Kosovo Online that the upcoming European Parliament elections are of great importance because they will decide the future of Europe – whether to continue with the establishment of centralized authority or to move towards a better future through enabling more direct democracy, returning powers to member states, and creating alliances of friends.

As he stressed, Serbia is a friend and a part of the European family.

"A victory for patriotic forces would bring about a change in EU policy. It would end the policy of thinking in 'rainbow colors' and the policy of centralism," Vilimsky stated.

On the other hand, he points out that the policy he advocates would once again allow member states to make decisions through direct democracy, which means that citizens can make decisions.

"There would be changes in the policy towards the war in Russia and Ukraine, as we want peace. We want to fight against the 'madness' of the European Union, which is also noticed by citizens. We want to return powers to national parliaments. All of this is our goal and what we are advocating for in the elections," Vilimsky emphasized in a statement for Kosovo Online.

He highlighted that freedom parties and right-wing parties wanted a positive reform.

"We don't want to destroy anything. We want a coalition of friends in Europe, and Serbia is a friend and a part of that European family," Vilimsky underscored.

He conveys that the elections are important as they will determine the future of Europe and whether the Union will continue down the path of establishing a centralistic government, which he does not want and is against, or whether it will move towards greater sovereignty of member states, which he believes leads to a better future.

"The decision also concerns whether the regime of Ursula von der Leyen will continue or what we would like, which is Europe led by someone like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Surely, a good future is not possible with Von der Leyen," Vilimsky said.

He expresses confidence that a change of leadership at the helm of the EU is possible, but that current leaders will fight with all their might to stay in power.

"Those they claim are right-wingers are right-wing conservative and freedom parties, a coalition of patriots who want the best for Europe, want to build a future of cooperation and friendship, without centralism. If we manage to unite all parties of the right, freedom, and patriotic spectrum under one roof, that faction would be either the second strongest or the strongest political faction in the EU and could take the helm and lead Europe to a better future," Vilimsky said.

Vilimsky emphasizes that EU citizens are the only ones who decide about the future.

"Citizens of all 27 member states will decide whether to continue down the path of Von der Leyen's centralism, support for war in Ukraine, or the path of peace, returning sovereignty to member states. Only then would Europe have a patriotic future as imagined by Charles de Gaulle when he spoke of 'Europe of homelands'," Vilimsky emphasizes.

He concludes that only those who love their country - have an understanding of representatives of other countries who want to do something for their people and country.

Commenting on assessments regarding the rise of the right-wing in Europe and the potential outlook of the future European Parliament, a researcher from the Institute for European Studies, Petar Curcic, assesses for Kosovo Online that significant results could be achieved by Identity and Democracy (ID) and the Conservative Reformist Party, two firmly right-wing oriented parties with clear Euroscepticism.

"However, it is expected that they will not enter into power but will be a very strong opposition," Curcic says.

He agrees with the assessments that the biggest losers of the European Parliament elections could be the far-left-oriented parties.

"It is expected that parties of the center-left, primarily Socialists and Democrats, should replicate the election result from previous years. Liberals, Greens, and Social Democrats are expected to remain at the same level," Curcic said.

He emphasizes that there are multiple reasons for the phenomenon of the rise of the right wing in Europe.

"The rise of the right has multiple roots. Primarily, these are problems with the institutional definition of the European Union. Should it move towards stronger centralization or towards decentralization of Europe's nations," Curcic points out.

He also warns that assessments of the rise of the right wing in Europe should be approached with caution because there are "three shades" of right-wing-oriented parties on the EU political scene.

"The first is a group of right-center parties gathered around the European People's Party, however, throughout history, they have shown to be very consistent guardians of European integrations. A party belonging to that group is the Christian Democratic Union in Germany, where Angela Merkel has been the longtime leader," Curcic explains.

He adds that the other two groups - more firmly right-wing, gathered around Identity and Democracy (ID) and the Conservative Reformist Party, do not have a clear relationship with the EU but, on the other hand, are great critics of migration policy and liberal values.

"They have also shown criticism towards the eurozone, as well as towards models of financial and military integration of the EU, which, however, due to the war in Ukraine, can no longer be realized because NATO has proven to be the central node," Curcic states.

He evaluates that despite the rise of the right wing in Europe, it is still not to be expected that the upcoming elections for the European Parliament will reflect a new EU policy, especially towards the Western Balkans and the dialogue between Belgrade and Kosovo.

"It should not be expected that the results of future European elections will affect the course of the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. However, what is more realistic is that there will be a resolution at the international level, primarily the US elections, the crisis in the Middle East, the relations between Europe and the US, as well as Europe-Russia and Russia-US relations," Curcic says.

He cites a key reason being that the European Parliament does not have a significant role in the institutional mechanism, but also that the participation of right-wing parties in government does not necessarily mean a radical change in policy.

"The European Parliament does not have such an important role in the EU's institutional mechanism. It is an agreement among states. However, it should be expected in that direction that individual elections in European countries could shape the policies of those countries towards the EU. We saw, for example, in the case of the Netherlands how the potential rise of Geert Wilders could have influenced. However, examples from Italy and Sweden show us that the fundamental course of these countries has not changed much. In fact, in the case of Sweden, with the entry of extreme right-wing democrats into the government, it showed that they only accelerated the country's integration into NATO. Therefore, it should not be expected that the European Parliament will be a direct reflection of changes, but it can be said that it will be an indicator of the next elections," Curcic said.

He reminds that national elections will be held next year in the key EU members.

"One should not forget that besides federal elections in Germany, there are elections in France and Italy. Italy is a specific country where early elections often occur. There is also Spain, which can be particularly interesting to us because of the case of Catalonia's secession, and not only that, but also the Basque Country. These are countries that can influence events here," Curcic said.

On the other hand, researcher from the Center for European Policy, Miloš Pavkovic, warns that a potential victory of right-wing parties in the European Parliament elections would also mean that negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina may no longer be at the forefront of the EU agenda, which could open up the possibility of new tensions and unilateral actions.

"If right-wing forces prevail in the victory, it could mean that the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, from the EU's perspective, will take a back seat and will not be as focused as it has been so far. This then raises the issue of potential new tensions and unilateral actions that the European Union may not have the capacity, and perhaps not even the desire, to prevent or deal with more actively," Pavkovic stated for Kosovo Online.

According to him, the European Parliament elections could bring exactly this kind of surprise because the future composition of the European Parliament will also determine the selection of new leaders for the European Union.

"If there are any major surprises and changes in power relations among parties, it will definitely affect the election of the President of the European Commission and the European Council, and it will also reflect on the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. How it will reflect will, of course, depend on the political parties that will have the upper hand in the European Parliament," Pavkovic said.

He explains that the strengthening of the right-wing front in the EU is indicated not only by public opinion polls but also by election results such as those of Wilders's party in the Netherlands or the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Germany.

Another important reason he sees is the fact that for EU member states, the European Parliament elections are still of secondary importance.

"When we consider that the European Parliament elections in member states are somehow considered secondary to national elections and that extremist parties that are not particularly popular in national elections receive much greater support than usual, we can expect major surprises in the European Parliament elections," Pavkovic emphasized.

A knowledgeable observer of European affairs, Nenad Radicevic, a correspondent for RTS in Germany, assesses for Kosovo Online that in the upcoming European Parliament elections, the bloc of right-wing-oriented parties will gain a majority. However, he believes that this will lead to dramatic changes neither at the top of the EU nor in relations towards the Western Balkans and mediation in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina.

"It is apparent that the hard-right bloc will strengthen, along with the moderate right, or the right closer to the center, having a majority in the European Parliament. However, this doesn't mean that there will be a dramatic change in power at the top of the European Union, but rather that some form of coalition between conservative parties, the Social Democratic Party, and the Liberals or Greens will be needed. In this quadrangle, a new government at the EU level will emerge. But the European Parliament as a kind of speaker for all these parties will be somewhat different. Voices that are not so popular with those in power will be heard more," Radicevic assesses.

He has no doubts that changes at the top of the EU, from a new High Representative for Foreign Policy to the announcement of establishing a Defense Commissioner, will also impact the Western Balkans and the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, but one shouldn't expect dramatic changes there since most Western European countries, which have a decisive influence, among other things, on the election of European officials, have a fairly united stance on Kosovo.

"In that sense, one should not expect a drastic turn. However, in the European Parliament, it will be possible to hear more voices questioning whether the idea of Kosovo's independence is correct and whether the EU is wrong on that issue. The debate in the European Parliament may sound good to our ears, in terms of reporting and work and discussions in the EP, but in practice, it will not lead to change," Radicevic claims.

He explains that there are slim chances that regardless of who will take over the leadership of the European Union in the future, that choice won't question or change the essence of the negotiation process between Belgrade and Pristina, which is taking place under the auspices of the EU.

"In practice, officials who will take over EU leadership will not question the essence of that process, which is something called the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina, and in fact, when viewed in the context of European integration, it is an effort for Belgrade to normalize those relations so that it can enter the EU without Kosovo. Actually, that is the essence, not a return of Kosovo under Belgrade's jurisdiction," Radicevic emphasizes.

Speaking about the upcoming European Parliament elections, Radicevic says that it is already clear that the biggest losers will be center-left parties, social-democratic parties, Liberals, and Greens.

"They are seen on numerous issues at national levels as someone who has worked against some interest groups, such as farmers. We have seen a series of farmer protests across the EU, and the Greens or Liberals are actors who were opponents of the interests of farmers. In the end, the EU abandoned some controversial regulations. Specifically, Ursula von der Leyen herself, at the last minute, withdrew some legal procedures, including for farmers. Among other things, to benefit as a representative of that conservative stream in European elections," Radicevic says.

He adds that this is also visible regarding the war in Ukraine.

"Now we see that even regarding the war in Ukraine, the actions of certain officials are fundamentally aimed at regaining the trust of their voters before the European elections and making it difficult for opponents who have either pro-Russian or anti-war views," Radicevic emphasizes.

Asked whether upcoming national elections in EU member states could bring surprises, Radicevic says that one should not expect dramatic changes there either.

"In Germany, it is difficult for Alternative for Germany or the Left, which have different views compared to mainstream parties, to come to power at the federal level. Maybe at the state level, there is a chance, but at the federal level that decides on foreign policy, there is no chance. The same is a big question in France, even if theoretically Marine Le Pen became the new president, would she change policy? Did Giorgia Meloni change Italy's course? No, even though she was seen as someone who played against the system. In that sense, I don't believe that there could be a major turnaround, at least not in the near future," Radicevic concludes.