European elections and the Brussels dialogue: Disappointed expectations and new calculations

About 342 million citizens of the European Union with the right to vote will have the opportunity to vote in the elections for the European Parliament from June 6 to 9. The results of these elections will influence who will be the next president of the European Commission, but also the shaping of future European policy towards the Western Balkans, as well as the continuation of the dialogue process between Belgrade and Pristina.

A total of 720 deputies are elected to the European Parliament, and this institution, together with the EU governments, decides on key laws for the 27 members of the Union, but also on the fate of the candidate countries and the most important issue for Belgrade and Pristina - the normalization of relations.

"The dialogue did not fail because we believe that in the end it will be possible for the two parties to come to an agreement, and we are here to help them in that".

It is one of the two sentences that could be heard too often in recent years from the now departing European officials.

EU spokesman Peter Stano said this on September 27, 2021 - a day after another round of unsuccessful negotiations in Brussels, in which Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti participated under the auspices of the EU.

"The dialogue has not failed despite the fact that the last round of negotiations was not successful", Peter Stano repeated on September 15 last year after another failed negotiation.

This was repeated by others. Lajčak the most.

Whether it is because he is leaving for the position of ambassador to Switzerland in September or because he is tired of "optimism", only the main mediator of the EU in the dialogue was somewhat more moderate in the middle of last month, after the seventh, unsuccessful round of talks in Brussels regarding the dinar ban.

"Unfortunately, an agreement has not been reached and at this moment it is not clear how this decision will affect the daily life of the affected communities in Kosovo. I am ready to host another meeting on this subject, provided that the parties show a genuine willingness to reach an agreement," Lajcak said.

Another key motive for the negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina were the European demands that the Community of Serb Municipalities be formed.

"I am ready to convince the leaders to find practical solutions before November 21. We must not reach that date without a solution. We are in a vacuum where the worst can happen and both parties must show more flexibility," Borelj said on November 14, 2022.

Little has changed in two years when it comes to flexibility. There was more talk about resuscitation.

EU Special Envoy Miroslav Lajčak said at the beginning of May this year that the focus should be on progress in the full implementation of the agreement, without preconditions or delays, which for Kosovo means that it should start with the formation of the Union of Serbian Municipalities and accept the European draft statute of the CSM.

"Both sides and their constructiveness will be measured solely on the basis of progress in implementation - not on the basis of actions or public statements of the other side. The ball is in the court of Serbia and Kosovo, and we are waiting for them to start fulfilling the agreement," said Lajcak.

Only 12 days later, the officials of Germany, France and Italy sent a letter to Pristina, a kind of response, because of which Kosovo did not celebrate and become a member of the Council of Europe.

"Unfortunately, the steps you propose do not address the urgent need for concrete steps towards the establishment of a Community of Municipalities with a Serbian majority and risk further undermining the dialogue led by the European Union," the letter states.

The former ambassador of Kosovo to Albania, Sile Ukshini, concluded after everything that the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina is "on the brink of death" and in the status quo, which has been going on for the last four or five years, and that the European Union bears the main blame for that.

"I say in a symbolic way that the dialogue is dying, that it is on artificial respiration. Lajčak can boast, in the end he did a great job, because he opened up big questions. And that is the only balance of his work. But the dialogue has not progressed and I think the main culprit for that is the European Union. The approach that Kosovo had to the dialogue was unbalanced and asymmetrical", said Ukshini.

The interlocutors of Kosovo Online, summarizing the work of the European administration so far, indicate that it did not live up to the expectations towards the Western Balkans and the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, and that their successors have a difficult task to continue this process because the war in Ukraine is the biggest, but not the only, challenge for the Old Continent.

Unplanned "External Players"

Former Ambassador to the OSCE Branka Latinovic believes that the Western Balkans will remain a focus for the next European administration and that the failure to conclude the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue cannot be attributed solely to the EU, but also to "unplanned external players."

"The issue of the Western Balkans, in the context of the region's enlargement and integration into the EU, is a long-term matter that has been on the agenda for many years. Certainly, everything that happened in Eastern Europe, the war in Ukraine, has accelerated this entire agenda to incorporate the region into the EU with appropriate plans, dynamics, and conditions that need to be implemented," Latinovic said in an interview with Kosovo Online.

According to her, the outgoing European Commission was dedicated to the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, evidenced by the appointment of Special Envoy Miroslav Lajcak, and noted that the High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Security, and Defense Policy, Josep Borrell, also became involved in the negotiation process.

However, Latinovic highlights that they were not successful, and she claims the reasons should also be sought in "unplanned external players."

"The tools and tactics of international organizations and actors have changed. The language is not the same as it was in the 1990s, and this altered approach needs to be viewed in new realities and circumstances. Did they succeed in this? No, they didn't. Did they have ambitions? Yes. Did they have the political will and desire? I believe they did. Now, other factors influenced this. Of course, one should not exclude the engagement of some unplanned external players," Latinovic said.

She adds that in this light, the actions of Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti should be observed.

"I personally think that Kurti's stubbornness in refusing any agreement or always finding some excuse regarding the continuation of the use of the dinar on Kosovo's territory is not only an expression of his stubbornness and persistence but probably other factors behind him encouraging him to persist. On the other hand, the representatives of the European Commission themselves do not have the tools or ways to encourage or regulate this differently. They tried with some mild sanctions, which were almost not applied in practice," Latinovic explained.

Therefore, she emphasizes, the task of the next European Commission is to create a package of measures to prevent such obstruction and ensure that Pristina fulfills the agreed commitments.

"It remains to be seen how this issue will be packaged to enable the normalization of relations in a way that Pristina fulfills its obligations, primarily related to the Community of Serb Municipalities, but also everything else associated with it," Latinovic concluded.

Who Promised What

For Dragan Blagojevic, a well-versed expert in European affairs and a recent correspondent for the Beta news agency from Brussels, the performance of the outgoing European administration regarding the Western Balkans, as well as the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, has resulted in "considerable impotence" because, essentially, nothing has been achieved. He believes that future decisions, regardless of the upcoming European Parliament elections, will largely depend on the results of the November presidential elections in the United States.

"Everything the European administration has done so far, primarily the European Commission, but also the EU governments, regarding the Western Balkans, has ultimately resulted in considerable impotence," Blagojevic told Kosovo Online.

He believes there are several arguments for this claim, citing promises from European officials about substantial financial aid to the Western Balkans as the first.

"Miroslav Lajcak and Oliver Varhelyi, especially Commissioner Varhelyi, spoke about some 30 billion euros in aid. And they have been talking about it for three years, but it has remained a dead letter on paper. Now some additional funds of six billion euros have appeared, but the precondition for this is that each country must meet basic requirements, such as satisfying the rule of law and other criteria. But this is already part of the key points in the EU membership negotiations," says Blagojevic.

He adds that a similar summary, that essentially nothing has been achieved, can be made when it comes to bringing the region closer to the EU, but also concerning Kosovo.

"My belief is that a lot of time has been wasted without achieving anything substantial regarding the Western Balkans. Now, the war in Ukraine has occurred. The geopolitical component or reasons or views within the European Union have prevailed, and now it is said that this must be done urgently. How? It can't be done overnight. First, Ukraine is a country at war. It is the one that should first join the European Union. Belgium, the presiding country of the European Union, proposes that negotiations on membership with Ukraine and Moldova begin in June. The Western Balkans are no longer mentioned. The issue of Kosovo is completely frozen. In fact, nothing is being done there anymore," Blagojevic emphasizes.

Commenting on the results of key European actors concerning the region, this experienced journalist says that the only one who tried to do something was the chief European negotiator in the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, Miroslav Lajcak.

"In the last month and a half, the High Representative of the European Union, Josep Borrell, has been traveling around the world. A war broke out in Gaza, and he simply forgot what he should be doing concerning Kosovo. I'm not saying he shouldn't be dealing with those other big global issues and problems, but he's simply nowhere to be found anymore. The only one left, who is still talking and trying, albeit quite ineffectively, is Miroslav Lajcak. All attempts to find a solution, even for the issue of the dinar in Kosovo, have fallen through. The authorities in Pristina simply reject it, they don't want it," Blagojevic states.

Asked whether the future European administration will have a different approach and what the Western Balkans can expect, Blagojevic says that is the "million-dollar question" and that everyone is waiting for "November" - the US presidential elections.

"I think everyone is waiting, both here in the Balkans and in the EU, to see what will happen in America in November. The US presidential elections will likely be decisive for the entire EU policy towards Ukraine, the Western Balkans, and overall relations between Europe and America. It will take a lot of time for the European Commission and EU governments to devise and clarify what can concretely be done to realize what is 'on paper.' One must not forget that a war is raging in Ukraine. Absolutely no one knows the political goal of that war concerning the Europeans, nor the Americans," Blagojevic emphasizes.

Commenting on the possibility of Ursula von der Leyen getting another term, Blagojevic says there is resistance to such an idea in Brussels, and one of the most serious opponents is Nicolas Schmit from the Party of European Socialists.

"Some believe she has not led the European Commission well. Some remind that even as a minister in Germany, she did not have great results. But back then, she had strong support from Chancellor Angela Merkel. We don't know the current situation within her party, the CDU, but we see that she is trying to form an alliance with Giorgia Meloni, the Italian Prime Minister, who has proven to be a skillful politician and leader. However, the distribution and movement of forces within the European Parliament suggest that the socialists would have difficulty expecting to get the head of the European Commission," Blagojevic concludes.

International Context

Petar Curcic, a researcher at the Institute for European Studies, assesses that the outgoing European administration attempted to make strides in the process of normalizing relations between Belgrade and Pristina but, despite certain successes, did not achieve satisfactory results.

"It seems that the European Union tried to make some advances in the normalization process. However, the general context and, of course, the difficult position that Serbia has, primarily due to the non-cooperation of the Albanians, could not achieve satisfactory results," Curcic said in an interview with Kosovo Online.

According to him, the issue of EU-Kosovo relations should not be viewed in isolation but in relation to the general international context. He recalls that the administration led by Ursula von der Leyen faced a series of parallel processes and effects, from the coronavirus crisis and the beginning of the Russian intervention in Ukraine to constant migration pressure and increasingly strained relations between the US and China.

"The Kosovo issue must be aligned with all these phenomena. It seems to me that the issue of Kosovo depended on a strategic triangle, speaking of the European Commission, between Ursula von der Leyen, Josep Borrell, and Miroslav Lajcak. Also, we should not forget the significant role that Germany and France had in the Ohrid Agreement process, seeking a new dynamic in relations between Belgrade and Pristina. This is not so much a question of the European Commission as it is a question of national states, namely the two leading ones in the EU, Germany and France," Curcic emphasizes.

Among the issues still awaiting resolution, he highlights the prosecution of those responsible for crimes against Serbs in Kosovo.

"Effectively, some things have been done. We must not forget that there is an ongoing process for war crimes. These are all issues that remain open but are positive signals considering the Serbian victims in Kosovo and Metohija and that we still do not have the perpetrators of those crimes. These are all issues that remain open for the future," he notes.

He believes that the future relationship of the EU towards the Western Balkans, particularly regarding the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, will largely depend on the redefinition of relations following the European Parliament elections, but not solely on those elections.

"It should be noted that elections in Germany will be held next year, and they will significantly impact the entire enlargement process," Curcic believes.

He assesses that the upcoming European Parliament elections open up "two dimensions."

The first is the issue of enlargement, and the second is the satisfaction of Serbian national interests.

"The current rise of the right, particularly the European Conservatives and Reformists led by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and the disintegration of the Identity and Democracy group, raises a new question of whether the European Conservatives and Reformists will be part of the next administration. If this happens, considering the traditionally good relations that Serbia has had with Italy, especially since the arrival of Prime Minister Meloni, it might enhance that process," Curcic concluded.