Expectations of the Region from Marta Kos: Will "Neighborly Ties" Accelerate the Western Balkans Toward the EU?

She swam for the national team of the former SFRY, which has led many to hope she is "Yugonostalgic." True, she comes from Slovenia, the first country to secede from that "Yugoslavia," but it is also one of the loudest advocates in the EU for the Western Balkans to join the European family. Has the region finally gained "its own person" at the top of the European Commission with the appointment of Marta Kos as the Commissioner for Enlargement, who will speed up the process? Analysts from Tirana, Skopje, Pristina, and Belgrade, who spoke to Kosovo Online, have no doubt that she will better understand the complexities of the Balkans. However, they also warn that "Yugonostalgia" and "neighborly ties" will not be of much help in Brussels.

Written by: Arsenije Vuckovic

The EU Council, in agreement with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, has approved a list of candidates she proposed for appointment to the Commission, with a mandate until October 31, 2029.

The new Commission will have a total of 27 commissioners, and Marta Kos is expected to replace Hungarian Oliver Varhelyi as the EU Commissioner for Enlargement.

For the next five years, she will lead enlargement negotiations with Western Balkan countries, Turkey, Ukraine, and Moldova. Additionally, she will be responsible for Ukraine's post-war reconstruction.

“I consider the EU’s enlargement policy to be its most successful foreign policy, bringing peace, stability, prosperity, and new opportunities not only for new members but for all EU citizens. This is particularly important in the current geopolitical environment, where Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine has brought war to the European continent,” Kos said in her first address after von der Leyen officially proposed her as the new Commissioner for Enlargement.

She emphasized her intent to "work intensively" with the countries that have been "in the EU waiting room for decades," aiming to "deepen our shared values and support their reforms to achieve full EU membership."

EU Ambassador to Serbia Emanuel Joffre has no doubt that now is the right time to accelerate the region's EU accession process.

"We must seize this momentum; the Western Balkan countries have been in accession negotiations for a long time, and now is the time to speed up the process," Joffre said.

Winds Within the EU

However, Dritan Laci, Editor-in-Chief of the show Na Meti on TV News 24 in Tirana, believes that Germany and France will play the key roles in the EU's enlargement to the Western Balkans, and internal frictions within the Union are reducing that chance.

“The enlargement of the EU to the Western Balkans will depend more on the will of leaders and the political situation in member states, especially in France or Germany. We must admit that the situation is not positive. Despite the rhetoric that the Western Balkans is part of the continent and should join the EU to prevent the influence of other countries, primarily Russia and China, so far these are just words from EU officials. In the EU, there is a rising wind of what is being called ‘right-wing extremism,’” Laci told Kosovo Online.

He reminds us that some EU leaders, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán or Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, are striving to transform the Union into an alliance of independent states.

“Others, like Le Pen in France or Wilders in the Netherlands, are even calling for the dissolution of the EU. Such internal conflicts won’t help the region’s EU accession process,” Laci stated.

At the same time, he noted, Balkan leaders have stopped believing in the possibility of joining the EU anytime soon.

"This is due to unfulfilled forecasts. Let's not forget that in 2018, Oliver Varhelyi stated that Serbia and Montenegro could join the EU by 2025, which is now not expected. Recently, he said that membership is possible in five years, by 2029," Laci recalled.

Commenting on Marta Kos's appointment as the new Commissioner for Enlargement, Laci said that she is definitely more connected to the region than the current Commissioner, Oliver Varhelyi.

“In her youth, she lived in Yugoslavia and knows much more about the problems of the Western Balkans, as well as the situations in Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Croatia. Additionally, Kos has experience in diplomacy, having served as Slovenia’s ambassador to Germany and Switzerland.”

He emphasized that Kos is taking on this role at a time when the situation in the Western Balkans has become tense.

“She is assuming the position at a difficult time when it seems the region is becoming more strained, with normalization talks between Serbia and Kosovo at a standstill, and where the focus is on the armament of states,” Laci concluded.

Managing Expectations

Milan Igrutinovic, a research associate at the Institute for European Studies, explained in an interview with Kosovo Online that the expansion of the EU to include new members, such as the Western Balkans, will be closely linked to internal reforms within the Union. He emphasized that Marta Kos, the future EU Commissioner for Enlargement, will be tasked with implementing agreements made in Brussels and managing expectations on the ground.

"I expect that she will implement the agreements reached in Brussels. The topic of enlargement is currently, and formally, closely tied to the internal reform agenda of the EU. When mainstream political parties and the European Commission’s college of commissioners discuss potential enlargement, they speak in the context of the EU's need for internal reform, particularly regarding decision-making processes and budgetary changes after 2027. These are two parallel processes. One will not move forward without the other. It is simply expected that the Commissioner for Enlargement will manage expectations on the ground and align the timeline of what is happening in the enlargement process with what is expected to happen within the EU in terms of those reforms," Igrutinovic explained.

He noted that this dual focus will place constraints on Kos’s ability to push for rapid enlargement, as internal EU reforms will play a crucial role in determining the timing and scope of future accessions.

Milan Igrutinovic elaborated that the selection of the new EU Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos, is a result of the ongoing conflict between Viktor Orbán's government and Brussels, as well as Slovenia's vested interest in EU expansion.

“There has been a slight shift in influence. It seems that the majority is more satisfied with the selection because the candidate is not from Hungary, given the long-standing conflict between Orbán’s government and Brussels. The Slovenian candidate is seen as being in a better position to harmonize and communicate Brussels' agreed-upon positions on the ground. Slovenia, as a country, is politically and culturally very interested in enlargement, so her candidacy is not particularly controversial in that regard,” Igrutinovic said.

When asked how this selection might benefit the candidates from the Western Balkans, Igrutinovic noted that this assistance would mainly be at a "tactical level," but the key decisions would still be made by the EU's leading states.

"Likely at a tactical level, Kos could expedite certain projects and present them more effectively to the Commission, given her understanding of the culture and dynamics of this region. She might also be better at 'reading' the process and conveying it more clearly in Brussels. However, her role is primarily shaped by the internal policies of the EU, and without strong support from Brussels, Berlin, Paris, and the Eastern European countries now influential because of Ukraine, little can be done,” Igrutinovic explained.

He also pointed out that Kos will also have Ukraine and Moldova within her scope of work, both of which will likely demand significant attention. As a result, Igrutinovic expects the Western Balkans to receive less focus than before.

“We expect that the attention on the Balkans may diminish compared to what it was, but this will fundamentally depend on the internal political relations within the EU and the upcoming reforms that need to be written and operationalized over the next few years. Therefore, I do not expect substantial changes in how the process is executed on the ground,” Igrutinovic concluded.

Regional Issues

For political scientist Arbnor Sadiku from Pristina, the selection of Slovenian politician Marta Kos as the new EU Commissioner for Enlargement is undoubtedly good news for the Western Balkans, primarily because she is well-acquainted with the region's issues.

"I think this is good news. As we know, Slovenia was previously part of Yugoslavia, and Kos understands the challenges faced by the countries of the Western Balkans very well. This makes cooperation much easier, and many Balkan states could follow Slovenia’s path before it joined the European Union,” Sadiku stated.

Arbnor Sadiku further emphasized that the European Union's decision to appoint a Commissioner for Enlargement from the Western Balkans region signals the EU's interest in the area.

"By assigning the enlargement portfolio to Slovenia, the EU is sending a message that it is paying attention to the Western Balkans and the prospects of these countries deepening their common values in pursuit of European integration," Sadiku stated.

Ukraine or the Balkans?

Simonida Kacarska, Director of the European Policy Institute in Skopje, explained that there was a debate within the European Commission about whether the new Commissioner for Enlargement would focus more on Ukraine or the Western Balkans. She believes that the choice of Marta Kos signals that the Western Balkans will remain in the EU's focus.

"The struggle within the European Commission was about whether the proposed new Commissioner would focus more on Ukraine or the Western Balkans. With the nomination of Slovenian Marta Kos, it seems likely that the Western Balkans will not be left out of focus, even though Ukraine holds greater political significance," Kacarska told Kosovo Online.

She added that the new EU Commissioner is likely to demand "different behavior" from the countries in the region in fulfilling their obligations.

"We are not perfect," Kacarska admitted.

She also stressed that the Western Balkan states would expect much more understanding of some bilateral issues.

"They will probably receive that understanding, but they cannot expect to have more influence than Ukraine and Moldova, which are the primary interests of the Union in the coming period," Kacarska noted.

She concluded that while it's good news for the region that someone "from the neighborhood" will head the enlargement portfolio, the larger and more influential EU member states ultimately make the key decisions regarding enlargement.

"It's good news for us that she knows the region. However, it would have been better if the Commissioner came from a larger and more influential country. Many of us working on this issue say that the most successful EU enlargement happened when the Commissioner for Enlargement was German. From that perspective, Slovenia does not carry the same weight as larger countries, but Kos will have a better understanding of the region. Strictness, if present, should not be seen as a negative; in fact, it might benefit many of these countries to be evaluated by higher standards," Kacarska concluded.