Five EU countries will not recognize Kosovo soon; possible elections in Serbia and Kosovo
Despite the fact that, after the meeting with Miroslav Lajcak, Albin Kurti once again reiterated that the European plan was "acceptable" for Pristina, it is still controversial for Kosovo for two basic reasons. Neither does it imply the recognition of Kosovo by Serbia, nor the recognition of the five EU members Spain, Greece, Slovakia, Romania, and Cyprus. As things currently stand, the interlocutors of Kosovo Online point out that recognition from the mentioned countries is not realistic at the moment, as well as that elections are possible in Kosovo and Serbia soon.
The Coordinator of the Working Group of the National Convention of the European Union (NCEU) for the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, Dragisa Mijacic, stated for Kosovo Online that, first of all, it was not "realistic that there will be recognition by Spain and Cyprus".
"I don't believe that they will recognize Kosovo in the near future. Recognition can only come after the signing of this agreement, but not during the negotiations. Eventually, maybe one of the mentioned five countries would do it, but I'm not sure about it either. The trajectory is made, first, the CSM must be established, after that the signing of the agreement, and then after that, it is expected that eventually Greece, Slovakia, and Romania will recognize Kosovo. Of course, the recognition of these EU members is not guaranteed, and on the other hand, Kurti will go to obstruct this process and impose its own agenda with its own conditions. It is up to the international community to meet him or press for an agreement," Mijacic says.
Regarding what could follow, Mijacic states that in the coming period, there could be "conflicts in the north, and even the organization of elections in Kosovo and Serbia, which would postpone the entire process for six months."
"All this is the moving of chess pieces by Belgrade, Pristina, and the international community and it is questionable what will happen in the end".
Analyst Ognjen Gogic for Kosovo Online states that it is likely that the remaining five EU countries "will recognize Kosovo at some point, but the question is how close that moment is."
“Considering that they did not recognize in the previous 15 years, and that says something - that they will not easily change their decision. The non-recognition is motivated by fear because when part of the secession of a part of the country is carried out outside the central government, it can come back to you like a boomerang. When Spain is in question, Catalonia could refer to the example of Kosovo. For years, it has been speculated that if Serbia recognized Kosovo in some way, then the remaining EU member states could do so without fear. This is what counts when talking about a comprehensive agreement on the normalization of relations, it would then make the decision easier for those countries and show that it is not a precedent," Gogic says.
Our interlocutor points out that the answer to the question of whether the circumstances have been created for the five EU members to recognize Kosovo is "no".
"First of all, the Franco-German agreement was not signed, and it is not sufficient for that either. The idea is to make it legally binding, to be ratified in the assemblies of Kosovo and Serbia. This (Franco-German) agreement is a political declaration and that is not enough, so the chances for that are very small. After all, Belgrade wants those countries not to recognize Kosovo and will try to prevent that, as well as to avoid signing the Franco-German agreement. On the other hand, it is very important for Pristina that this agreement be interpreted as a recognition because these five EU countries are not only holding back Kosovo towards the EU but what is more important - joining NATO. That is why it is not surprising that Kurti insists on it. Only if Pristina received guarantees for recognition by the five EU countries would it be an incentive for Kosovo to sign, and that is what the battle is about. The Franco-German agreement is not recognition of Kosovo nor does it lead to the UN; it is not known whether it will be enough, and as things currently stand, it will not be for joining NATO. And even if Slovakia and Greece admit it and Spain doesn't recognize it, it is all for nothing," Gogic says.