New local elections in the north: Which scenario is the most realistic?

Brussels expects that new elections in the municipalities in the north of Kosovo will be held in the coming months and that the Serbs should participate in them "unconditionally". Regarding the timing of the elections, analyst Allen Meta tells Kosovo Online that in the best-case scenario, he expects them at the end of the summer or the beginning of autumn, and when it comes to the preconditions for the Serbs to vote in the elections, Slobodan Zecevic from the Institute for European Studies says that the basic condition is the withdrawal of the Special Forces of the police from the north.

Speaking about new elections in four municipalities in the north of Kosovo, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said recently that Pristina had to make certain concessions in order for the Serbs to participate in them. He noted that the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities had still not been formed and that the Kosovo Special Forces and the Albanian mayors had not withdrawn yet.

Slobodan Zecevic says that the withdrawal of Special Police Forces would be a good thing because they are a disaster for peace and stability in the north of Kosovo and because it would first of all reduce the tensions and mistreatment of the people in the north.

"The elections in the north are crucial and it is very important that they be held as soon as possible. The municipalities in the north with Albanian mayors have no legitimacy among the people. New elections are necessary because with them the conditions for the formation of the CSM are created. The formation of the CSM is a normal proposal as a condition for elections, but the problem is that Pristina does not want to form the CSM, and the question remains as to who would form it, which delegates; are they the old representatives of the local authorities? If the CSM were to be formed now, the Albanians will say - we have the power in those municipalities. Therefore, it is difficult to say whether it is possible for the CSM to be formed before the elections and whether the Albanians would agree to it, but the withdrawal of Special Forces is realistic," Zecevic says.

However, he indicates that it is difficult to say how the international mediators will be positioned in the whole story and what their final position will be, because, he says, they oscillate in their positions - sometimes they threaten sanctions, sometimes they give in to the Albanians.

"I think that with the tightening of sanctions around Kurti, they would be able to do a lot, but we don't know if they will develop it to the end. With the approach of announcing sanctions to Kosovo one day, and them being full of understanding the next, the mediators will not achieve much. The Albanians only understand the language of force. I'm not referring to Kurti, but I think the Albanians would understand and then get rid of Kurti in that story," Zecevic says.

One of the open questions is how new elections will take place. The President of Kosovo, Vjosa Osmani, has repeatedly emphasized that the law foresees several possibilities and that, according to her, the best one is for 20 percent of the voters in each municipality to sign the petition. Prime Minister Albin Kurti also stated that as part of the four steps Pristina was proposing to de-escalate the situation in the north, the election would take place after the petition was launched.

On the other hand, the position of political representatives of the Kosovo Serbs is that the way to the polls is opened by the resignations of illegitimate Albanian mayors who were elected with a voter turnout of only 3.5 percent.

Analyst Allen Meta tells Kosovo Online that there are actually three options based on which new mayoral elections can be held in the four northern municipalities.

"They include - the resignation of the mayor of the municipality, the dismissal of the president due to violation of the Constitution, and the initiative to remove the president of the municipality, which must be signed by 20 percent of registered voters. In the current situation, the second option is lost - dismissal due to violation of the Constitution because that did not happen," Meta says.

Based on the current situation in the four northern municipalities, as he adds, he sees the only solution in initiating a request for the removal of the municipal president, which would be submitted by 20 percent of registered voters.

"That request is submitted to the President of the Municipal Assembly, and then it is presented to the competent institution in the electoral administration, and as a result, the way would be open for the initiation of extraordinary elections. If none of this is done, then we will enter a phase in which the whole society will face the consequences because the endless continuation of the crisis does not lead to an improvement in the situation for citizens," our interlocutor says.

Meta also states that taking into account the current situation and the slow steps, in the best scenario, he expects the elections to be held at the end of summer or at the beginning of autumn.

"Other options should not be available or attempted, as they could further delay the process of de-escalating the situation," Meta concludes.

Eugen Cakolli from the Kosovo Democratic Institute tells Kosovo Online that due to party differences between the mayors of the four municipalities in the north, they will most likely not resign.

"Therefore, it is almost certain that the most realistic and possible option is their resolution through a legal initiative provided for by the Kosovo Law on Local Self-Government, which is practically a kind of referendum - which essentially represents a form of compromise between the parties. This option, which the Kosovo side insists on, procedurally, takes longer, because its successful completion requires at least three months. It is also a guarantee for the inclusion of the Serbian community in the process, and moreover, it will be used as a way for the authorities to buy time to reach a more general political agreement between Kosovo and Serbia," Cakolli says.