Poland's presidency of the EU Council: Are there "roadmaps" to Belgrade and Pristina?

ilustracija poljska predsedavanje
Source: Kosovo Online

Poland took over the presidency of the EU Council on January 1st, sending a message to the Western Balkans that membership in the Union is a "natural process of political and economic integration of the European continent." For Pristina and Belgrade, there's a postscript: a fundamental condition for progress towards membership is the normalization of relations and the implementation of agreements from the dialogue. These are old "roadmaps" but placed within a different context—new EU priorities, according to Kosovo Online.

Written by: Arsenije Vuckovic

"Raise your heads, Europeans. Europe is great and will always be," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told members of the European Parliament yesterday.

Just 20 days after the country took over the Council's presidency, he also stated that the motto and first priority would be a "safe and secure Europe."

"I am not some kind of militarist, but Europe needs to arm itself now to be secure and to defend itself in the future," said the Polish Prime Minister.

"The membership of all Western Balkan countries in the EU is seen as a natural process of political and economic integration of the European continent and as an important step towards strengthening the security and stability of Europe," was explained a few days earlier by the Polish presidency to Gazeta Express.

It was stated that Poland remains committed to Kosovo's European path, but a condition is the normalization of relations with Serbia.

"The normalization of relations and the implementation of obligations from the dialogue remain essential conditions on the European path for both Kosovo and Serbia," it is emphasized. European Priorities

Research fellow at the Henry Jackson Research Center, Helena Ivanov, explains to Kosovo Online that the European Union's recent moves have shown that the Western Balkans region is important to it, and that normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina would be a significant diplomatic score, but that the EU faces much bigger strategic challenges both externally and internally.

"The Western Balkans is an important part of Europe, and solving the dispute between Belgrade and Pristina and normalizing those relations would be a big diplomatic score. The Western Balkan countries want to join the European Union, and lately, the EU has been sending some more positive messages regarding the expansion of this community. Thus, this region and the resolution of normalization are important, but on the other hand, there are now much more significant and strategically relevant matters for the European Union," says Ivanov.

According to her, these include the war in Ukraine, the EU's positioning regarding the new U.S. administration, and internal frictions within the Union itself.

"EU member states are facing a very large number of internal problems: the rise of the right-wing, the immigration crisis... I think all these issues will be more relevant than the Western Balkans, although the Western Balkans are important to the European Union, just not to the same extent as these other matters," Ivanov specifies.

When asked how much Poland's presidency of the EU Council might contribute to progress in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, this analyst believes that official Warsaw will follow the previously established EU policy.

"And I believe that whichever state is charged with it will continue with the same philosophy," this researcher emphasizes.

Poland, immediately after taking over the presidency on January 1st, stated that a fundamental condition for Serbia and Kosovo's progress on the EU path is the normalization of relations and the implementation of agreements from the dialogue.

Ivanov believes that the message sent was expected.

"The normalization process has been ongoing for a very long time. In recent years, this process has functioned as one step forward, two steps back. Both sides have at different times refused to fulfill some of their contractual obligations. The government of Albin Kurti has recently made many unilateral moves. Also, it has not yet fulfilled its Brussels obligation, which is the establishment of the Community of Serb Municipalities. And I think in that context, the EU is in a hurry. The EU wants to score a diplomatic point, wants to say that this issue, which has been resolved for decades, is finally resolved," Ivanov highlights.

Therefore, the EU will employ "conditionality" as a tool.

"I think that this conditionality, ensuring contractual obligations are fulfilled and maintaining constructiveness in the normalization process, will be a condition for accession to the European Union, and I believe there will continue to be significant pressure on both sides in these negotiations," Ivanov specifies.

She doubts that Poland's recognition of Kosovo, stemming from a group of EU countries that have done so, will influence its relations with both Belgrade and Pristina.

"I purely doubt it, maybe behind closed doors. I believe that behind closed doors with some, you can have slightly better or worse cooperation depending on which country they come from, their affinities, and their views on matters. But I think that big, complex issues like the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina are decided at a much higher level, and once that policy is established, whoever is responsible for fulfilling and implementing that significant decision must act in accordance with what has been decided at a higher level. The individual affinity of countries or country representatives regarding the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina will play a very small role in how that process unfolds," emphasizes Ivanov.

She explains that the EU has a clearly defined policy, which is why every representative must act in accordance with such a "general stance," one way or another.

"On the other hand, a lot also depends on Belgrade and Pristina when it comes to normalization of relations. It is now crucial that both Belgrade and Pristina show the will for this process to succeed, to constructively engage in the process, to work on reducing escalations, and ultimately to ensure that people living in Kosovo, regardless of their ethnicity, can live normally and functionally. A lot depends on the international community, of course, but also a lot depends on the authorities in Belgrade and Pristina," concludes Helena Ivanov, a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Research Center.

View from the Baltics

However, former diplomat and member of the Forum for International Relations of the European Movement in Serbia, Srecko Djukic, is confident that Poland could use its presidency of the Council of the European Union and, along with the three Baltic states, influence the renewal of dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina.

"Poland, I believe, can have an influence not only as Poland but as a member of, let’s say, the Baltic region. With the three Baltic states, it holds a very strong position in the European Union, and they often speak unanimously. I think they can significantly contribute to opening or renewing dialogue with Pristina and normalizing those relations," Djukic assesses in a conversation for Kosovo Online.

There is no possibility of "turning the wheel of history back," and the interrupted dialogue must continue, Djukic is convinced.

"As for Belgrade and Pristina, the story that was interrupted must continue. It has to be completed. That is already clear to everyone. I think we should not harbor any illusions that the wheel of history can be turned back, but rather that the (agreement) negotiated in Brussels must be fully realized," Djukic emphasizes.

He believes that several opportunities to achieve this were missed, which Pristina used to make unilateral moves.

"Unfortunately, a lot was missed and not covered in the negotiations, so Pristina took advantage of that to make simple moves. All this could have been much better managed in bilateral negotiations. However, it is necessary to insist on opening those negotiations and completing the normalization process between Belgrade and Pristina," Djukic specifies.

He believes that Poland will use its position to emphasize the issue of enlargement as one of the priorities for the EU.

"This refers of course to the Western Balkans, but also to other countries that have meanwhile applied for EU membership. This includes Ukraine, there is Moldova, so now there is significant competition, and everyone is running their own race towards the European Union. Poland, as the new chair, has put EU enlargement, working with new members, as its priority in its agenda," explains the diplomat.

Poland's presidency of the EU Council is also seen as an opportunity for Serbia.

"As far as we are concerned, Poland suits us in many ways. We have very correct, excellent relations with Poland. Recently, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk visited here, and that visit really resonated well, not just in bilateral terms, but also within wider regional and European contexts. Serbia has had relations with Poland since the 19th century, and there has always been an understanding of Serbia's positions and an understanding of Poland's positions by Serbia," Djukic emphasizes.

He says the accession process involves three levels of communication.

The first is cooperation with the country presiding over the EU, then working with all the Union's member states because each of them decides on opening clusters or chapters necessary for accession.

"And the third level, which is actually the first or zero, or initial level, is working with the EU administration in Brussels, where it is determined whether a cluster is prepared for opening, whether a cluster is prepared for closing," Djukic states.

National Interests

Political analyst Nexhmedin Spahiu has a different perspective.

He believes that it is in the national interests of both Kosovo and Serbia to implement what has been agreed upon.

"Implementing what has been agreed between Kosovo and Serbia is a national interest for both Kosovo and Serbia, and this must be achieved as soon as possible. The sooner - the better," Spahiu tells Kosovo Online.

He is referring to the formation of the Association of Serb Municipalities and the tacit recognition of Kosovo by Serbia.

"Negotiations have concluded. What remains is the implementation of what has been agreed upon. It is known what level of autonomy for Serbs in Kosovo is, through the Community of Municipalities with a Serbian majority. This is defined by the statute proposed by the European Union and accepted by Prime Minister Kurti and President Vucic. Although, sometimes they deny it due to electoral reasons, both Vucic and Kurti, but we have three witnesses. These are Meloni, Macron, and Scholz who have said that they accepted it, so that matter is settled," emphasizes Spahiu.

In return, Serbia should tacitly recognize Kosovo.

"In return, there is the tacit recognition of Kosovo by Serbia through the opening of permanent diplomatic missions of Kosovo in Belgrade and of Serbia in Pristina. This is in Kosovo's national interest because the opening of such permanent missions implies tacit recognition and paves the way for recognition by the five EU member states that have not yet recognized Kosovo," specifies Spahiu.

The failure to implement the agreement is a direct consequence not only of mutual distrust but also distrust in the EU mediator, claims the analyst.

"They think that if one side takes the first step, the other side will continue to procrastinate and not do their part. The only way out of this situation is for it to be implemented simultaneously, for the Kosovo flag to fly in Belgrade on the same day the Community's flag flies in the municipalities with a Serbian majority. That would be the solution and the realization of what was agreed upon. Whether the EU mediators or Poland as the chair will do this, or perhaps the newly elected U.S. President Trump will demand it? If it is required to be done simultaneously, it will be successful and realized," Spahiu is convinced.

In response to whether Poland's recognition of Kosovo as the chair of the EU Council will influence the further course of the dialogue, Spahiu emphasizes that this has not played a decisive role so far.

"It's not important. The fact that Slovakia or Spain have not recognized Kosovo did not affect it; the dialogue has continued its course, so it will not mean anything in the case of Poland either. What the entire European Union demands, both the countries that have recognized and those that have not recognized Kosovo, is that an agreement is reached between Kosovo and Serbia," the analyst stresses. Dialogue and Foreign Policy

Miloš Pavkovic, a researcher at the Centre for European Policy, assesses that Poland's presidency of the EU Council will not bring anything new to the negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina, but warns that official Warsaw will insist on aligning the foreign policies of membership candidates with the Union's foreign policy, especially regarding the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia.

"Whichever country has presided over it has not had much influence on the course of the dialogue because the dialogue is primarily managed by the European External Action Service, namely the EU Special Representative for the Dialogue. In this context, it should not be expected that Poland will interfere much. However, Poland has highlighted one of the key priorities of its presidency—security in terms of the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. I believe that Serbia's alignment with foreign policy could create favor from Poland as the chair, or again, perhaps intensify relations with Poland since this is at the top of the priorities for Poland as the chair and for Kaja Kallas as the new EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security," says Pavkovic for Kosovo Online.

The statement from Poland, as the chair of the EU Council, stating that normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina is an essential condition for further progress towards EU membership, Pavkovic sees as a repetition of the positions held by all other European institutions.

"This is one of the conditions for progress and it's no secret to Serbia. Since the beginning of the negotiation process, the dynamics of the negotiations have actually depended a lot on the progress made in the dialogue with Pristina," emphasizes Pavkovic.

He explains that the same conditions will also apply to Pristina, which applied for membership in December 2022.

"However, since Kosovo is also under EU restrictive measures and acts quite unilaterally, creating tensions, their candidacy has not even been discussed, and punitive measures are still in place," this analyst notes.

He reminds that the former High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security, Josep Borrell, proposed lifting the measures against Kosovo, but doubts that this will happen as long as Pristina continues unilateral actions.

"Although there are initiatives, it has not materialized and will not materialize until Kosovo begins to de-escalate, i.e., the government in Pristina begins to de-escalate, which we still see is not the case," Pavkovic specifies.

He does not rule out the possibility that Prime Minister Donald Tusk could use his political influence and Poland's presidency of the EU Council to position himself as a mediator in the dialogue.

"Donald Tusk is an experienced Polish and European politician. He has served as President of the European Council for two terms, which is very important given that Tusk visited Belgrade last year and is well acquainted with the situation. He could position himself as a figure who can help facilitate the dialogue, especially in preparing a new person to succeed Miroslav Lajcak," Pavkovic emphasizes.

He does not believe that the EU Council presidency of a country that recognizes Kosovo will influence future actions.

"Whether a state has recognized Kosovo or not does not necessarily imply bias in the dialogue itself. We see that many countries that have recognized Kosovo have insisted on dialogue and on implementing agreements, on creating the CSM (Community of Serb Municipalities), and even Kosovo's biggest sponsors, Germany and France, last year blocked Kosovo's membership in the Council of Europe, precisely because of a lack of dialogue," says the analyst.

He also sees merit in the actions of Pristina.

"Especially considering some kind of diplomatic fiasco that Kurti's government has had over the past four years, where it managed to undermine relations with all partners, including the USA," Pavkovic emphasizes.