The relationship of military power in the Western Balkans: Who is "rattling the sabers" and who is "preparing for peace"?

According to an analysis by the specialized military portal Global Firepower, Serbia is the military leader in the region, ranking ahead of even some NATO member states. At the same time, despite claims by Pristina officials that more has been invested in the purchase of weapons and equipment than ever before, Kosovo has fallen in the rankings according to these statistics and is now near the very bottom of the list. Geopolitical turmoil is prompting the Western Balkans to invest more in their military capabilities. At the same time, this is a region where, even without global tensions, there has always been "saber-rattling," say Kosovo Online's interlocutors from Tirana, Skopje, Pristina, and Belgrade.

Written by: Arsenije Vuckovic

When assessing the military capabilities of 145 countries worldwide, Global Firepower uses more than 60 different parameters.

Most Western Balkan countries have dropped in this global ranking in 2025, but this has not affected the order, which remains identical to last year.

Serbia remains the leading military power in the region despite dropping from 56th to 63rd place.

Its defense budget amounts to $2.28 billion, with 25,000 active soldiers and the potential to mobilize an additional 1.2% of its military-capable population annually.

Last year, Serbia signed a major contract with France and joined the so-called "Rafale club," but since these fighter jets have not yet been delivered, they are not included in this assessment.

According to Serbian Air Force pilot Captain Miloš Jankovic from the 890th Squadron, the past year was marked by equipping and further strengthening Serbia's Air Force and Air Defense. He emphasized that Serbia’s air force has been reinforced with FK-3 and HQ-17AE air defense missile systems, GM-400 and GM-200 radars, and H-145M helicopters in the latest D3 variant.

Croatia, Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo

Despite purchasing French Rafale jets, Croatia has also dropped in the Global Firepower ranking, from 66th to 74th place.

Its defense budget stands at $1.17 billion, with 14,325 active soldiers and an annual mobilization potential of 1.3%.

"For several years now, and especially in the last year and a half, Croatia has been significantly strengthening its armed forces and its position within NATO. This year, we have finally exceeded 2.5% of GDP in military spending. We will continue, and even 3% is not far away," said Croatian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Ivan Anusic at the Munich Security Conference.

Albania is the only country in the region that improved its ranking, moving from 90th to 78th place.

Its military budget is $558 million, with 6,600 active soldiers and an annual mobilization potential of 2%.

North Macedonia, with a defense budget of $388 million, has dropped two spots to 112th place. Its army consists of 9,000 active personnel, with a 1.3% mobilization potential.

Montenegro has maintained its 127th position from last year. Its defense budget is $148 million, with 2,350 active personnel and an additional 0.6% mobilization potential.

Despite having a slightly higher military budget than Montenegro—$126 million—Bosnia and Herzegovina has dropped 16 places to 132nd. Its armed forces consist of 12,770 personnel, with a 1.3% mobilization potential.

Kosovo is the worst-ranked in the region, standing at 141st place out of 145 countries, ahead of only Somalia, the Central African Republic, Benin, and Bhutan.

In 2024, Kosovo ranked 135th, meaning it has dropped six places.

With a military budget of over $260 million, Kosovo Security Forces (KSF) reportedly have 10,000 personnel, with an annual mobilization potential of 0.9%.

Late last month, Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti stated at the "National Resilience – Challenges and the Way Forward" conference that deep reforms in the defense and security sector had begun with increased arms purchases for the KSF.

There have also been announcements that Kosovo might open its first defense industry factory.

Self-Determination Movement candidate for MP and Defense Minister Ejup Maqedonci stated in a Facebook video that Kosovo’s defense budget would exceed €1 billion over the next four years.

However, former KSF Commander Kadri Kastrati believes that given global security circumstances, Kosovo should allocate at least 6% of its GDP for defense to accelerate the transformation of its security forces.

Global Threats and Consequences

Nikola Lunic, Executive Director of the Council for Strategic Policies, told Kosovo Online that the militarization of the region should be seen as a consequence of the global security situation, which "is far from rosy."

In this context, Lunic believes that even Serbia, despite being the regional military leader and not facing "an imminent threat," should reconsider its national security strategy.

"Judging by everything happening in our surroundings, it's time to adjust the national security strategy to fit the current situation. And the current situation—both globally and in Europe—is certainly not a pleasant one," Lunic stated.

On the other hand, he points out, Kosovo is not in NATO, but it tends to establish its own armed forces by 2028 and to somehow "establish allied relations with powerful countries in the region, as well as globally."

Serbia has no reason to fear this, he says.

"Given its gross national income, Kosovo will never be a real threat to Serbia, unless there are some tectonic shifts in the region in terms of geopolitical forces," Lunic evaluates.

"Military Investments" and History

However, this is not the view of the former Chief Inspector of the Kosovo Intelligence Agency (KIA), and now a lawyer from Pristina, Şkelzen Sopjani.

He sees the military investment in the region as a direct consequence of Serbia's lead in this area.

"Serbia is one of the countries in the region that invested the most in its military last year. This then forces other countries to increase their military and security investments, such as Croatia, Kosovo, or Albania. We know that Serbia has not yet given up on its aspirations to expand its borders. All of its neighbors, especially from the former Yugoslavia, are concerned about this. This will mean an increase in defense costs for all other countries, including Albania," Sopjani says for Kosovo Online.

Commenting on the data from the Global Firepower ranking in which Serbia is ranked as the most powerful military force in the region and Kosovo is in last place, this expert emphasizes that this should not be surprising.

"The latest military ranking is not surprising, considering that Serbia is historically one of the most powerful military forces in the region and has inherited a lot from the former Yugoslavia. However, this ranking should not alarm anyone," explains Sopjani.

He explains the position of Kosovo's Security Forces on this scale by the fact that they are "the youngest military in the region."

"And of course, they lack certain military capabilities. But the KSF is focused solely on defense, and we know that it is much easier to defend than to attack when it comes to necessary equipment and the number of personnel. It's usually a ratio of ten to one. That's why I think the KSF is on a very solid path to developing its full defense capacity," says Sopjani.

He emphasizes that Kosovo is successfully completing a ten-year plan which foresees the KSF transforming into armed forces by 2028.

He is confident that this goal could be achieved earlier.

"The ten-year framework plan is already far advanced, and I expect it to be fully realized sooner than initially planned. It will also involve significant investments in the KSF," Sopjani believes.

He views the Kosovo government's announcement that it could soon build its first ammunition factory as a good move, which would greatly reduce the costs of importing ammunition for the needs of the KSF, the Kosovo Police, and other security services.

"I'm not just looking at it from a defense perspective, which is important, but it's also a significant business opportunity. Both the KSF, the Kosovo Police, and other security agencies consume a lot of ammunition, which they purchase from other countries. So why not produce their own ammunition and save some money? However, it seems to me that this factory will produce ammunition only for smaller, basic calibers," explains Sopjani.

National Interests

Analyst and editor-in-chief of Suri TV, Bledian Koka, says that investing in defense is an important national interest for every country, but that despite the regional "arms race," no one should expect conflicts in the Western Balkans.

"The arms race in the Western Balkans should not be seen as a sign of preparation for a possible regional conflict. Despite recent international events, following the elections in the US and the new approach of the US administration to global conflicts, such a scenario should not be expected. However, although these conflicts are far from our region, they still pose a threat. That’s why NATO exists. For that reason, and I hope no new conflicts arise, every country in the region must prioritize being militarily prepared to respond to any challenge," Koka says for Kosovo Online.

He stresses that investing in defense must also be a national interest for every country.

"Military investments should not just be election promises but steps taken in line with national interests. Leaders must understand that their countries, regardless of which alliance they belong to, must also have their own defense potential in the case of aggression," Koka emphasizes.

Commenting on the fact that Albania is the only country in the region to have jumped on the Global Firepower military portal ranking from 90th to 78th place, this analyst sees it as a result of fulfilling the obligations assumed by joining NATO in 2008.

"According to those obligations, each NATO member country is required to invest 2% of its annual state budget in its military," Koka says.

He reminds that NATO membership doesn't only imply collective defense in the case of an attack, but also the capacity to defend and retaliate in case of aggression.

This principle, he notes, was the main argument during the election campaign in Kosovo.

"I see this trend as more prominent in Kosovo than in Albania, especially during the last election campaign. It was one of the main themes and one of the main promises of Prime Minister Kurti. So, the expansion and increase in investment in the military. I think that the need for the defense of the country cannot only serve an electoral campaign. Kosovo should be ready to defend itself in any case, especially given the region it is in," Koka believes.

Speaking about Albania's plans, he emphasizes that insisting on increasing the defense budget is a mistake.

"The Albanian government's desire to increase defense spending to 2.5% is more of an unnecessary servility. This is not achievable in a country with small financial potential and very large economic challenges like Albania. It is unnatural for the government of such a country to act as if it is a military superpower, when that is not even necessary. I agree that Albania is obligated to increase its defense budget to 2% in line with NATO commitments, but anything beyond that is unnecessary promises," Koka concludes.

Security and Economy

Former Macedonian ambassador and analyst from Skopje, Risto Nikovski, believes that the armament of the Western Balkans should be viewed as a response to the "fragile global situation," and that it would be much wiser for the region to focus on economic development, otherwise, it will become "the appendix of Europe."

"Everyone is arming themselves, including Kosovo, and this is in some way a response to the global situation, which is fragile in many ways, going downhill, and every country is trying to strengthen its security," Nikovski says in an interview for Kosovo Online.

He explains that arming has justification in ensuring the security of each country.

"Security is involved in many things, so these efforts are justified. However, it must be emphasized that there will be no war in the Balkans. The reason is very clear. After the collapse of Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union, the main power in the region is the US. They control everything and will not allow any new military disruption of peace. If war breaks out, the Russians return, and if there is one thing the Americans don't want in the region, it is the Russians. So, there will be no war, and it would be much wiser if these Balkan countries paid more attention to economic development because we are becoming, in some way, 'the appendix' of Europe," Nikovski emphasizes.

Commenting on the Global Firepower data, which shows Serbia as the military leader in the region, Nikovski says that this ranking is logical and a consequence of increased armament in the region.

"Hrvatska was the first to buy Rafale French jets, purchasing an entire squadron of 12, followed by Serbia, which purchased and ordered another 12 planes, 2.7 billion euros is a huge amount," he states.

However, he warns that these data should be understood in context.

"It must be taken into account that the Balkans is divided into NATO members, all except the last three: Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia. Within NATO, it is known that armament is already imperative," Nikovski specifies.

He also believes that it would be a "catastrophe" if NATO decides to increase the defense budget from the current 2% to 5% of GDP.

"This would be a disaster, not only for NATO members but also more widely. And these other countries that are not in NATO, the last three, will have to follow this policy one way or another, and that will lead in a negative direction," Nikovski states.

The fact that Serbia is ranked first and Kosovo last in this ranking will neither encourage nor motivate actors to make additional military investments.

"There is no such challenge. Kosovo is, in many ways, the smallest and, with its status, it is natural that their security issues and their security framework are a little more concrete and developing under specific conditions. The fact is that Turkey is helping them in the security sense, so I think Kosovo is following a path that is typical in the region and the world," Nikovski concludes.

The problem, according to Nikovski, lies in the wrong regional policies that fail to focus on economic development and integration, something that the "Open Balkan" initiative aimed to achieve.

"I think this is the wrong policy for everyone, not just Kosovo, because we should be heading toward economic development. It's a shame that the Open Balkan project failed. Borders should be relativized, because the European Union will not expand; this has long been a fact, and it's up to us whether we will do everything to approach European living standards, conditions, and criteria, or if we will remain 'the appendix' of Europe on the Balkans," he warns.

His message to the region, both to NATO member countries and those outside it, is to focus on development.

"All the Balkan countries, both those in NATO and those outside it, should be focused on development, on the broadest possible cooperation. Only that opens up a perspective for all of us," Nikovski is convinced.

He believes that the war in Ukraine has contributed to strengthening defense capacities but that with the choice of a new U.S. administration, "a new policy is being dictated, which brings fundamental changes on the international stage."

"This should be an example for all countries in the Balkans and beyond in Europe to follow. Only in this way will we join the new, positive winds blowing, and where there will be a 'piece of the pie' for all of us. If we go in the opposite direction and resist, it will revive old historical syndromes," warns this analyst.