Shuttle diplomacy by the EU and the Quint for reviving the dialogue: What does the "big five" bring to Belgrade and Pristina?

After nearly a month since the tragic events in Banjska, the "big five" special envoys from the EU, the US, France, Germany, and Italy are arriving in Belgrade and Pristina tomorrow in an attempt to revive the dialogue and negotiation process, which has practically been blocked for months. Ahead of the shuttle diplomacy by representatives of Brussels and the Quint countries, different versions have emerged about what they are bringing to the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo, and there are even mentions that they might bring ready-made solutions that will be delivered to the parties based on a "take it or leave it" principle.

The interlocutors of Kosovo Online from both Belgrade and Pristina have no doubt that the pressure will be substantial to finally make progress. However, they also emphasize that it is a big question what the effects will be, considering that, as they point out, this tactic has not borne fruit in pushing forward the normalization process so far.

Furthermore, both Pristina and Belgrade are receiving the Quint with their well-established positions. Belgrade insists on reducing the presence of special police units near municipal buildings, the removal of illegitimate Albanian mayors, and holding elections - requirements also put forward by the EU and the US, which Pristina refuses to meet. The Serb List has agreed to participate in local elections, but now the question is when they will be held because the Kosovo Government insists on administrative instructions.

Kosovo authorities, on the other hand, refuse to start the formation of the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities, which is an essential condition for the Serbs and Belgrade. They also reject the resumption of dialogue until "Serbia is punished for Banjska".

Besides the messages coming from the EU and the US for days that the dialogue has no alternative and must be resumed urgently, it is not yet clear what the exact platform of the EU is for the continuation of this process and whether Brussels will continue to be a mediator or if a more direct involvement of Washington can be expected.

In Belgrade and Pristina, the Special Representative of the EU for the Dialogue, Miroslav Lajcak, the US Special Envoy for the Western Balkans, Gabriel Escobar, and the chief advisers to the leaders of France, Germany, and Italy, Emmanuel Bonne, Jens Plotner, and Francesco Talo, are arriving tomorrow.

Political analyst Ognjen Gogic says that the arrival of other representatives alongside Lajcak is a signal that the Quint countries support his work. However, he believes it's unlikely that the envoys will be able to unlock the dialogue and encourage the parties to fulfill their obligations, pointing out that their previous visits and pressures haven't yielded results.

Gogic, speaking to Kosovo Online, recalls that the "big five" visited the region, including Belgrade and Pristina, at the beginning of the year, and there was talk of an agreement then. There were threats of sanctions and strong measures against both Serbia and Kosovo if that document wasn't accepted and implemented.

"However, they already came with Lajcak, and it didn't yield results. In these global circumstances, with the outbreak of the war in Israel, there are much greater security threats to Europe than the situation in Kosovo, so if their support or their presence as Lajcak's supporting voices in January didn't produce results, it certainly won't in October," Gogic concludes. This sounds like a replay, like a movie we've already seen, but the problem is that it seems like we all forget about it. In the meantime, after the 'big five' visit, there was the Franco-German proposal, which was later renamed the European proposal, accepted in some form, but nothing came of it," Gogic points out.

As he adds, after their visit earlier this year, not only was the agreement they sought to be accepted not implemented but the previous agreement, the Brussels Agreement from 2013, was also undermined, as well as previous agreements.

"This shows their real diplomatic limits. If they had the real power and strength to compel, force, or encourage the parties to fulfill their commitments, they would have done it by now. This shows that they have neither the 'carrot' nor the 'stick' for both Belgrade and Pristina. The new initiative demonstrates weakness, meaning they don't know how to manage this situation because they are doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome," our interlocutor emphasizes.

Gogic believes that if there were indeed an insistence on a new agreement, it would only create more confusion because, as he says, no one would know what is relevant, which agreements matter - whether it's UN Security Council Resolution 1244, the Brussels Agreement, or the agreements from Brussels and Ohrid this year.

It would only add another level of commitment, Gogic says, indicating that no one would be clear on what is relevant, and everyone could choose what suits them.

"It is precisely the insistence on agreements when the time is not right that has led to this situation," Gogic says, who believes that the moment for any agreements has not yet arrived.

Specifically, as he notes, Pristina does not want any agreement regarding the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities, and Belgrade does not want to enter into any agreement that would lead to non-recognizers from the EU and NATO recognizing Kosovo's independence, which was the intention of the Ohrid Agreement - to enable Kosovo to gain recognition from five EU countries that do not recognize them and maybe become a part of NATO, which is unacceptable to Serbia.

"The parties responded to the insistence on agreements with a crisis. Forcing agreements that are more needed by the EU than the parties involved leads to a radicalization of the situation on the ground. The best thing they could do is to give up insisting on any agreements for a while and pause this matter," Gogic says.

When asked whether additional pressure could be expected on Serbia and Kosovo, Gogic says that talks of pressure have been ongoing since the beginning of the year, from January when the "big five" came, but that this pressure did not yield results.

"One can question whether that pressure was real or perhaps a bluff and whether they are serious now. I think the talk of pressure is an outdated method that does not yield results and rather leads to counter-effects. I think Belgrade is expected to show cooperation when it comes to uncovering facts related to the events in Banjska, and above all, that the proceedings against Milan Radoicic, who is suspected of various crimes, are conducted. As long as Serbia remains constructive in this regard, it will be spared from additional pressure," he notes.

He adds that this crisis in Kosovo arose after the elections held in April, which the Serbs boycotted.

"If they had the ability to pressure anyone, they would have foreseen that these elections should be a part of the Ohrid Agreement. I have never understood how it was possible to accept the roadmap in Ohrid without elections being its point. At that time, both Lajcak and Josep Borrell actually admitted that they had no way to secure them. This shows that pressure is more of a rhetorical figure than a real one, and if it exists, it produces counter-effects to what those pressures aimed to achieve," Gogic emphasizes.

The visit of the EU Envoy and the four representatives of the Quint countries, the US, France, Germany, and Italy to Belgrade and Pristina aims to implement what has already started with the Ohrid Agreement, according to sociologist Vladimir Vuletic, who expects that pressure will be exerted on both sides to do what has been agreed upon and to what they have committed.

Vuletic points out for Kosovo Online that the Ohrid Agreement implies that both parties need to fulfill their part of the agreement independently of each other, regardless of whether one side fulfills its obligations or not.

He anticipates significant pressure on both Belgrade and Pristina.

"This is what the Quint will attempt to do in both Belgrade and Pristina," he adds.

He doesn't believe that the "big five" will offer new ideas to resolve the situation because, as he says, they believe that the plan of French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is ideal and should bring stability to the Balkans.

"They consider that the problem lies in the non-implementation of that plan, so I assume they will exert pressure and use all means at their disposal to realize that plan. Their vision and idea are to begin the implementation of what was agreed upon in Ohrid," he emphasizes.

Responding to the question of whether their arrival, along with Lajcak, can also be seen as additional support for the European Envoy, given that Pristina had objections to his mediation after the last high-level dialogue round in Brussels, Vuletic emphasizes that the US and the EU will not allow anyone to dictate who will be a part of their delegations.

"Of course, the US and the EU will not allow Pristina or Belgrade to decide who will be members of their delegations. If that were to happen, it would actually mean that they no longer have any influence on the process. This is one of Pristina's tactics, a way to exert counter-pressure on the group, but there is no doubt that it will lead to nothing," Vuletic concludes.

Political analyst from Pristina, Fadil Lepaja, tells Kosovo Online that the main message brought by the envoy five is that the parties cannot evade the commitments they have undertaken and must implement the agreements from the dialogue.

Lepaja emphasizes that these are representatives of serious states.

"It is clear why they are coming. These countries have worked on a process in which both states, Serbia and Kosovo, have assumed some obligations, and they are simply working to concretize and implement those obligations on the ground. And that the relations between the two neighbors not only calm down but really normalize in the sense of being as they should be between any two neighbors in the European community. The arrival of the 'big five' sends a message that you cannot evade your obligations if you want to join the EU. The only path is cooperation, agreement, and dialogue, not war and medieval ideas," Lepaja says.

He says that both Pristina and Belgrade will be asked to be "normal neighbors" and to fulfill all the conditions set for them if they want to be a part of the European community.

"Their message is clear: you cannot enter the European community like this. You must be good neighbors, democratically oriented, and help each other instead of just looking for ways to harm each other," Lepaja said.

Regarding claims that one of the topics the 'big five' will discuss with leaders in Belgrade and Pristina will be the elections in northern Kosovo, Lepaja believes that the Serbian community's citizens should choose their "true representatives".

"Every election of Serbian representatives in Kosovo must go through an electoral process. Now, this situation in the north, after Banjska, I think will complicate things a bit. We need to see which political parties in Kosovo and which political-military formations that do not recognize the state, the law, or the electoral process. Parties that have always called for boycotts, crises, and even war cannot be the bearers of a peace process. They cannot normalize relations. The citizens of Serbian nationality in Kosovo should choose representatives who will represent their interests, not some geopolitical and expansionist ideas. They must represent these citizens, their interests, and work to strengthen and improve their position on Kosovo, so they are truly equal in all respects to their Albanian neighbors and others, they live with, in Kosovo," Lepaja concluded.