Is the West playing a 'double game' in relation to Pristina's unilateral moves?

"There were so many actions that it's hard to count them all—actions by Pristina, and even more, reactions from the West. There isn't an embassy or institution in the US or EU that hasn't, in the past few months, issued at least a statement condemning, as they stated, 'unilateral moves' in northern Kosovo. The opposition has also been criticizing the government for months for not coordinating these actions with allies beforehand. However, the Minister of Local Government, Elbert Krasniqi, as young people would say, 'flipped the script.' Following a sharp statement from the State Department, he declared that 'international partners' were informed about everything. This statement got 'lost' in the sea of other news, and no one refuted the claim. Is the West playing a 'double game' in relation to Pristina's moves?

Written by: Arsenije Vuckovic

"I understand the need for coordination and believe we have coordination. Everyone was informed of the actions that were going to be taken," Krasniqi stated on September 4, commenting on the raid by special units on the premises of temporary bodies in four municipalities in the north.

He emphasized that this action should not be a topic of discussion.

"Honestly, their closure after 24 years should not be a topic. On the contrary, it should be problematic if we continue and allow them to operate there," Krasniqi said.

For the State Department, however, it seemed to be a topic.

"Under the direction of the political authorities of the Government of Kosovo, Kosovo police today conducted operations against Serbian-supported institutions in North Mitrovica, Zvecan, Zubin Potok, and Leposavic. Issues related to Serbian-supported structures in Kosovo must be resolved through EU-led dialogue. This action was not coordinated with any element of the international community," stated a press release published by the US Embassy in Pristina on August 30—the day of the raid on the temporary institutions.

The US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, Jim O'Brien, was even more explicit the following day. He called on Kosovo's Prime Minister Kurti and his government to stop uncoordinated actions.

"We call on Prime Minister Kurti and his government to consult and coordinate with the international community and to cease uncoordinated actions that negatively affect our partnership, " O'Brien wrote on the social network 'X.'

The EU was somewhat more restrained. EU spokesperson Peter Stano admitted that he mostly repeats himself when speaking about Pristina's actions.

"I will not repeat what we said in last week's reaction when the action was conducted in northern Kosovo against Serbian institutions, but the situation is already quite unstable, and that is what is most concerning, " Stano said at the latest press briefing.

Shifting of "Red Lines"

Milan Igrutinovic, a research associate at the Institute for European Studies, says in an interview for Kosovo Online that Prime Minister Albin Kurti is constantly shifting "red lines." However, despite appearances, the conflict between the government in Pristina and the West is exclusively on a "tactical level," because the unilateral actions are not in contradiction with the fundamental positions of the U.S. and the majority of EU countries.

"Although it seems that the positions of Kurti's government and the diplomatic representatives of the EU and the U.S. are in conflict, this is only at a tactical level. Pristina's ambition to unilaterally extend effective control over the four northern municipalities at its desired pace is not essentially at odds with the basic stance of the U.S. and a significant majority of EU countries that Kosovo is independent and sovereign within its recognized borders. Kurti's willingness to impose his will, even by force, is a problem for the EU and the U.S. because this method is truly undesirable for them. They would prefer there to be Serbian, but not the Serbian state's institutions, like the Association of Serbian Municipalities (ASM) in the north, integrated into Pristina's governance, as per previous agreements. But that problem is only tactical," says Igrutinovic.

He adds that Kurti can afford to continually push "red lines," confident that he is not violating the EU and U.S. position on the territorial sovereignty of an independent Kosovo.

"In this imposition, Kurti relies on the fact that he is not fundamentally breaching the core political stance of the EU and the U.S. — an independent Kosovo with its territorial sovereignty — despite differences in the pace and means of achieving this. So, above this tactical divergence lies Pristina's alignment with the dominant political order in the Balkans. Thus, he can afford to go against the current tactics of European and American diplomacy, to constantly push 'red lines,' believing that he won't face any significant consequences for it. And it seems that he has judged this well," concludes Igrutinovic.

Coordination and the Brussels Agreement

On the other hand, analyst Fidan Ukaj from Pristina claims that the authorities in Pristina conduct all actions in the north in coordination with the international community, and that the recent closure of temporary bodies in the four municipalities is in line with the 2013 agreement, which was brokered by the EU.

"The statement by Minister Elbert Krasniqi that international actors were informed about the actions of Kosovo institutions is good news because everything is being done in coordination with them. Therefore, I believe that the closure of parallel Serbian institutions in Kosovo is legal and in accordance with the laws in force. We had an agreement in 2013 that these parallel institutions would be closed, and that the people working in them would be integrated into Kosovo's institutions," Ukaj told Kosovo Online.

Ukaj adds that it was a mistake for Serbs to leave the police and municipal administrations in the north at the call of Belgrade.

"These Serbs are citizens of this country and should serve in Kosovo's institutions, providing services to their compatriots living in Kosovo, helping them secure the services they need for a better life," emphasizes Ukaj.

He believes that this could now be resolved by opening and applying for competitions to fill certain job positions.

Commenting on the international community's demands for coordination with Kosovo's institutions, Ukaj explains that with their help, the 2013 Brussels Agreement was achieved.

"The international factor seeks coordination with Kosovo's institutions. They helped in reaching the 2013 agreement between the Serbian and Kosovo sides, and with their help, it was agreed to close the parallel and illegal structures operating on Kosovo's territory. A good number of these structures have been closed, although some still operate illegally, and I believe they should also be shut down," Ukaj said, but he did not specify which institutions he was referring to.

He added that Serbia, as a signatory to the agreement, should also assist in this process.

"There is no room in Europe today for the destructive politics that President Vucic occasionally produces by asking the international community for a response to the closure of these structures, which were closed by the 2013 agreement," Ukaj concluded.

"Damage Control"

However, Marko Miskeljin, a researcher at the Center for Social Stability, believes that Western criticism is genuine and that Prime Minister Albin Kurti intends to "control the damage" until the elections, presenting to the public that his unilateral actions in northern Kosovo have not damaged relations with the West.

"It seems to me that it is primarily Albin Kurti's desire, as well as the people within his administration, to present it in such a way—to somehow justify to the Kosovo public the really harsh condemnations we've heard, primarily from the State Department. These are the words that resonate most in public discourse in Kosovo and are certainly the ones that hurt the most," Miskeljin emphasizes for Kosovo Online.

He emphasizes that, in this context, the statement by the Minister of Administration and Local Government, Elbert Krasniqi, that Kosovo's international partners were informed about the Kosovo Police's actions and the closure of Serbian institutions in the north should be viewed.

"All statements and actions by Albin Kurti from this moment until practically the February elections will mostly be in this context, with the aim of somehow improving his ratings. Krasniqi's statement is related to this, even though it contradicts what the State Department itself claimed," said Miskeljin.

He describes Krasniqi's claim as an attempt to "control the damage" caused by the statements of representatives of the international community.

"It wasn't just a colloquial condemnation. We have really, especially from the State Department, heard that what has been happening continuously seriously threatens the further partnership between the U.S. and the Pristina administration. These are much more serious criticisms than to be taken at face value," Miskeljin emphasizes.

When asked whether sharp reactions to Pristina's unilateral actions could lead to a more concrete response from the U.S. or the EU, Miskeljin says that this is unrealistic to expect, as the key problem is that the EU does not have mechanisms to punish those who do not honor the agreements reached.

"There are no reasons to believe that the pressures from the EU will become stronger. But now, a much more serious question arises: Does the European Union really have mechanisms to exert influence? We should not forget that the European Union is the guarantor of the Brussels Agreement, which has been flagrantly violated for more than a decade. The formation of the Community of Serbian Municipalities (CSM) is no longer even discussed, let alone other points that are violated daily. We see that those who are guarantors and mediators in the negotiations do not seem to have enough strength to reprimand the side that is clearly working toward escalation," Miskeljin concludes.

The Game and the Players

Nikola Markovic, a collaborator at the Institute for International Politics and Economics, has no doubts.

He is convinced that the West, despite issuing sharp statements, has been playing a "double game" for a long time in relation to Pristina's unilateral actions and that it was aware of the recent moves, including the violent takeover of temporary institutions in northern Kosovo.

"This double game has been going on for quite some time. It is a serious process and trajectory that has been in place since the declaration of Kosovo's independence up to the present. Both sides are always called upon to exercise restraint, while one side, in this case, the Serbs, is being subjected to actions that undermine its survival. I believe that these two policies—the policies of the West and the Kosovo administration—are well-coordinated, and if there are any obstacles from that direction, they will be resolved through mutual agreements, as these are actions that are deeply aligned," Markovic tells Kosovo Online.

Commenting on the statement by the Minister of Administration and Local Government, Elbert Krasniqi, Markovic believes that the statement is accurate and that the Western administration was informed about Albin Kurti's administration's recent moves.

"This is also evidenced by similar statements from Vjosa Osmani and an identical statement from Lajcak regarding the opening of the bridge on the Ibar River. They said the bridge would be opened, and it was just a matter of coordinating the date and agreement between the Western administration, the Serbs, and the Kosovo authorities. This indicates that the action was coordinated. On the other hand, we see that new bases of the Kosovo police are being opened in the north, with the aim of pressuring KFOR to open the Ibar bridge," concludes Markovic.