What challenges would a government with a narrow majority face?

If the formation of the parliament is unblocked and the Self-Determination Movement succeeds in forming a government with the support of 61 MPs, it would not be the first time that a ruling coalition in Kosovo has operated with a fragile majority. However, analysts point out that such a government would face a major test with the adoption of any law, especially the Budget Law, as any party could make their support conditional on their own interests, leaving Self-Determination with no choice but to make compromises. Additional challenges would include the upcoming local elections and the election of the President of Kosovo, scheduled for spring next year.

Written by Dusica Radeka Djordjevic

Former MP of the Democratic Party of Kosovo, Xhavit Haliti, stated that it wouldn’t be surprising if an agreement is reached soon, and believes the formula is simple: political self-sacrifice and negotiations.

Meanwhile, political analyst Visar Ymeri accused Kosovo's caretaker Prime Minister, Albin Kurti, of attempting to “buy MPs.”

“Albin Kurti is trying to buy MPs and lure them. He is failing because he doesn’t know how to do it. But that is not the problem. The main problem is that this party is now doing what it used to criticize for years,” Ymeri said.

The leader of Self-Determination, has not yet revealed which option is more realistic, three months after the elections: the constitution of parliament followed by new elections, or the formation of a new government. However, based on a letter he sent to LDK (Democratic League of Kosovo) leader Lumir Abdixhiku, in which he stated that “coalitions are formed between those who have differences” and that a coalition between Self-Determination and LDK is “preferred by voters of both parties”, it seems he has not abandoned the idea of a “Kurti 3” government.

If Kurti’s mission succeeds and he secures the support of 61 MPs, Aleksandar Sljuka, a fellow at the NGO New Social Initiative, told Kosovo Online that parties in such a ruling coalition with just one or two MPs would effectively have “veto power” and asymmetrical influence, allowing them to significantly shape laws and government policy despite their small numbers.

“That government would be formed with a multitude of partners from non-majority communities and potentially from Nisma, and it would face many tests because each party could push its own interests when voting on specific laws, while Kurti would have to negotiate and compromise on each individual issue with all those actors. I think there would be many problems, though I would say those problems would also confront the opposition, should it succeed in forming a government under some scenario. In that case, there wouldn’t be as many small players, but there would be at least three major ones, each with its own interests. In general, coalition governments are unstable, and what characterized Kurti’s second term was that his government was exceptionally stable. I believe that is now changing and won’t be possible going forward,” Sljuka said.

He also emphasizes that if the new government had exactly 61 MPs, each one of them could at any moment leave the majority, trigger a vote of no confidence in the government, and push the country toward new elections.

“If it happens that certain issues can’t be resolved or if any coalition partner has red lines, it would be entirely possible for them to withdraw support from the government,” Sljuka stated.

For context, Ramush Haradinaj’s (AAK) government was elected in September 2017 with 61 votes and lasted until July 19, 2019, when Haradinaj resigned after being summoned as a suspect before the Special Court in The Hague. Likewise, after a vote of no confidence brought down Albin Kurti’s first government, Avdullah Hoti’s (LDK) government was elected with 61 votes on June 3, 2020, but it fell by December of the same year.

If Kurti now manages to “gather” 61 votes for a new government, Milos Pavkovic, a fellow at the Center for European Policy in Belgrade, believes that every proposed law would represent a potential risk for such a fragile administration.

“The government would have to evaluate each law to determine whether it could be problematic for any member of parliament and potentially be rejected. We have seen that one MP, a representative of the Bosniak and minority group, conditioned her support for entering the government on the formation of a Bosniak municipality, which was not approved. Literally every law could pose a problem,” Pavkovic told Kosovo Online.

He adds that the government would not only be tested during the adoption of proposed laws, but also on issues like the upcoming local elections and the election of the President of Kosovo.

“This raises the question of whether the upcoming local elections later this year could lead to the fall of the government, as well as the forthcoming presidential elections in early 2026. All of these are potentially very difficult obstacles that would likely lead to the government's collapse, along with each law that enters the procedure. The Budget Law would be particularly challenging, as it is problematic for any government, especially one with such a minimal majority,” Pavkovic emphasizes.

Should Self-Determination manage to form a government with minimal parliamentary support, university professor Mazllum Baraliu believes it would be tested domestically on social issues due to high prices, while on the foreign policy front, it would need to be prepared for global realignments and the shaping of a new international order, and no longer the one forged 80 years ago at Yalta.

Nevertheless, Baraliu argues that if a government is formed based on the results of the February 9 elections, it should be a government of national unity.

“It should be an inclusive government that encompasses all parties that have secured seats in parliament, in order to create a unified policy and a unified program, and a stable government that will overcome the upcoming challenges. We will have local elections in November, and next year the election of the country's president, which requires at least 80 votes from members of parliament,” Baraliu said.