What impact would Lajcak's departure from the mediator's position have on the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue?

The formation of a new government in Slovakia, which could open a position for Miroslav Lajcak, according to some media reports, would lead to his departure from the position of mediator in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina. Such a development, according to analysts in Belgrade, would further slow down the already sluggish negotiation process, as the new mediator would need time to get acquainted with the situation. They describe Lajcak as a good connoisseur of this terrain who has tried to achieve some progress in the dialogue.

On the other hand, Selatin Kllokoqi from Democracy Plus in Pristina believes that the current European Envoy did not truly understand the relationship between Serbia and Kosovo and did not effectively lead the dialogue. Therefore, he thinks it would be good for someone to take his place who will "push things forward".

Lajcak himself has not commented on speculations that he could return to the position of Slovakia's Minister of Foreign Affairs. The situation in this regard will be clearer in about ten days, which is how much time Robert Fico, whose party Direction-Slovak Social Democracy won the most votes in the parliamentary elections, has to complete negotiations for the formation of a new government.

Lajcak was appointed as the European Union Special Representative for the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue and other Western Balkan issues on April 2, 2020, with an initial mandate of one year. In July 2022, the EU extended his mandate until August 31, 2024.

Stefan Surlic, an Associate Professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade, assessed for Kosovo Online that the potential departure of Miroslav Lajcak from the mediator position for the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina before the expiration of his mandate and before European elections would further slow down the negotiation process.

"Lajcak's departure would mean that we no longer have an institution that is the main mediator between Belgrade and Pristina. When we add the recent events in Kosovo and Banjska, it is crucial, primarily for European leaders, to have someone responsible for the dialogue. With Lajcak's departure, the dialogue fundamentally sinks further, and it slows down," Surlic says.

He points out that the dialogue was not functioning, as seen in the meetings of the leaders at the highest level in Brussels.

"We witnessed a complete deadlock in the process, but without a formal mediator, the situation would have been even more complicated," Surlic said.

Regarding who Lajcak, as a mediator, favored more, Belgrade or Pristina, Surlic states that he is a career diplomat and tried to bridge his views between two very opposing sides politically.

"But the fact is that Pristina consistently, from the beginning of the process, claimed that Lajcak was on Belgrade's side, that he was biased, and that he prevented an agreement from being reached," Surlic reminds us.

On the other hand, he adds, Belgrade had trust in Lajcak.

"There was some kind of basic agreement and mutual trust. Lajcak tried to be status-neutral to some extent while still making some progress in the dialogue," Surlic notes.

Diplomat Srecko Djukic assesses for Kosovo Online that the potential departure of Miroslav Lajcak from the role of mediator in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina will depend on Brussels' assessment of the situation in the relations between Belgrade and Pristina. He also adds that considering he likely knows this terrain better than any other diplomat, it would be valuable if he stayed in the dialogue until the end.

"I think it will depend primarily on Brussels' assessment of the situation in the relations between Belgrade and Pristina, whether this dialogue can be revived soon and on what basis. Regardless of certain objections from the Pristina side, it must be acknowledged that Miroslav Lajcak has borne the greatest burden of these ungrateful negotiations so far," Djukic said for Kosovo Online.

He adds that there have been other envoys within the dialogue, including US, English, French, German, and Italian, but the main burden, along with EU High Representative Josep Borrell, has fallen on Lajcak. He says that Lajcak is an extremely experienced and talented diplomat.

Djukic expects that regardless of the orientation of the new Slovak Government and its Prime Minister, whether it be Robert Fico, they will still take into account the need for broader interests.

"The broader interest in this case for all of Europe is how to save the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina and how to revive it and bring it to an acceptable, peaceful harbor because the situation is currently quite complex. My personal assessment is that for the job Lajcak has carried out so far, given that he probably knows our terrain here, including the relations between Belgrade and Pristina, better than any other diplomat, it would be valuable for him to stay and complete that job, regardless of the objections that they have tried to make from Pristina.

When asked whether it would be more favorable for the parties in the dialogue for Lajcak to stay or go, and which side would be more pleased with his possible departure, Djukic says there is no reason for either side to be pleased because whoever comes next will know less about both sides, and additional efforts will be needed to familiarize the new mediator with the situation.

"Perhaps it may seem to someone that this would be more favorable for Pristina, but I am absolutely not convinced of that. Mediators are individuals of a special caliber because they have a special mandate. They are not there to support one side or the other but to act strictly within their mandate, which is the mandate of the EU, as the EU mediates by the UN mandate. So, those prominent diplomatic figures that appear in the world of mediation are such individuals that it's difficult for anyone to find fault with them, especially considering that Miroslav Lajcak has gone through all phases of diplomatic life - both bilateral and multilateral, crisis diplomacy, and mediation diplomacy. I think that someone like him in his position would be difficult to replace quickly," Djukic stated.

Former EU Special Representative for Kosovo, Wolfgang Petritsch, believes that the potential departure of Lajcak from the position of the EU Special Representative for the dialogue would be a problem, but a replacement would be found in the short term.

"Any rapid change is a problem. Lajcak has an established team. I believe that a replacement could be found in the short term to at least maintain a minimum for the continuation of the dialogue. I don't know what will happen with Lajcak, whether he will return to Slovakia or stay in the EU position, but regardless of that, the EU must ensure that the dialogue can continue if both sides want it," Petritsch said for Kosovo Online.

Selatin Kllokoqi from Democracy Plus in Pristina believes it would be good for someone else to take Lajcak's place. He assesses that there has been no progress in negotiations during Lajcak's mandate and that the European Envoy did not fully understand the situation in the Balkans and the relationship between Serbia and Kosovo. He also thinks that Lajcak has sometimes shown bias, and it would be beneficial for someone with more influence to take his place and push things forward.

"If he leaves, someone will surely come to replace him in the position he holds in the EU for the Balkans. After all, he hasn't achieved significant success so far, why, I can't judge, but the dialogue led while he was in charge hasn't brought any progress," Kllokoqi said for Kosovo Online.

He says he's aware that Lajcak didn't make decisions alone, but it would still be good for someone more experienced to replace him.

"His work has not been successful; the question is who is responsible for that. After all, he was there between the two sides and was supposed to achieve something. He did not lead the dialogue well,“ Kllokoqi points out.

As he adds bias has influenced Lajcak's contribution to the dialogue process.

"He made statements that he shouldn't have, and it seems to me that he sometimes defended only one side. All of this contributed to the lack of success," he concluded.

Since 2010, when the United Nations General Assembly "welcomed the readiness of the EU to facilitate the dialogue process between the parties" in its resolution, negotiations were initially led by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Catherine Ashton, and then by Federica Mogherini, who was succeeded by Lajcak as the negotiator.

This Slovak diplomat began his career in the foreign service of Czechoslovakia in 1988. He served in the Embassies of Czechoslovakia and later Slovakia in Moscow and Japan. From 1999 to 2001, he was the Executive Assistant to the Special Envoy of the United Nations Secretary-General for the Balkans. He served as the Ambassador to FR Yugoslavia from 2001 to 2005 and oversaw the independence referendum in Montenegro in 2006 on behalf of the European Union. In 2007, he was appointed as the High Representative of the international community and the Special Representative of the European Union in Bosnia and Herzegovina. From 2009 to July 2010, he served as the Minister of Foreign and European Affairs of Slovakia. He was also the chief negotiator for the EU in association agreements with Ukraine and Moldova. In 2017, the United Nations General Assembly elected him as the President of the 72nd session.