Will the elections in the EU change the picture of Europe and how does the Kosovo issue fit into that?

Political tremors are echoing across Europe after the European Parliament elections marked a clear shift to the right, shaking many governments and seemingly leaving the Western Balkans at a crossroads. Key issues concerning the region could be overshadowed by internal problems, especially when it comes to EU enlargement, while Kosovo Online's interlocutors do not rule out the possibility that the US might again take a leading role in the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue.

Voter turnout for the new European Parliament was slightly higher than five years ago – 50.97 percent.

The conservative European People's Party (EPP) won the most votes, while far-right parties will have significantly more representatives than before. The far-right won the most votes in France and Austria, while in Germany and the Netherlands, they took second place.

The biggest losers in the elections were the Green and regional parties and the moderate left parties, grouped in the Greens/European Free Alliance (Greens/EFA), as they lost a substantial number of seats.

Analysts estimate that it will be difficult to discern a clear strategic agenda in the new parliament, aside from some key principles around security and the economy. How the Western Balkans and the Kosovo issue fit into this remains to be seen.

Foreign Minister Marko Djuric assessed that the European elections bring a changed political landscape within the European Union and show that EU citizens have “different and increasingly polarized views on key issues” – from the conflict in Eastern Europe, the economy, migration, to climate change.

“And there is no doubt that this will impact the policies of European institutions themselves. Serbia will continue to closely monitor political developments in Brussels, and we will continue to work on garnering as much support as possible from MEPs and other officials in member states for Serbia's swift accession to the European Union,” Djuric said.

The Minister stated that, regardless of all this, Serbia will continue to implement reforms with the aim of creating a prosperous, advanced society, in line with the goals proclaimed by President Vucic.

"With the aim that by 2027, the standard of living will be significantly higher than it was in the previous period, with an average salary of 1,400 euros, hundreds of kilometers of new roads, and overall, to make our society fully ready and even above the standards of the European Union in many respects," he added.

With the new structure in the European Parliament, Djuric expects that Serbia has received "a real opportunity to fight for more friends."

"We will tirelessly work on creating new friends, to form a support group not only for Serbia's European integration but also a group that will have greater understanding for our national interests, from Kosovo and Metohija to other regional topics, and I look forward to working with all of them together with our team in the coming period," said the Minister.

Helena Ivanov, a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, spoke to Kosovo Online about how the European Parliament elections will affect the EU accession process and the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue.

"These elections are certainly a tectonic shift for Europe, in the sense that the performance of right-wing and far-right parties was unexpectedly high, to the point that Macron felt the need to call for emergency parliamentary elections given his party's performance relative to Le Pen's party. So, I think we will definitely see a more right-leaning Europe, because the fact that right-wing parties performed so well in these elections will certainly influence how the current authorities, which are perhaps closer to the center, behave in order to maintain popularity among voters," Ivanov told Kosovo Online.

Regarding the approach to the Western Balkans, Ivanov does not expect many changes, especially concerning the normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo.

"Things are already established, the path is clear, and I believe that expectations will remain the same, fundamentally based on both sides implementing what they have previously agreed," Ivanov assessed. However, on the other hand, she believes that one of the noticeable consequences for the Western Balkans could be EU accession and membership, because after such elections, she believes "the appetite for enlargement will be smaller than it has been so far."

"When it comes to enlargement and accession to the European Union, I think the consequences will be very similar for both Serbia and Kosovo, in the sense that the general appetite for enlargement will diminish, but on the other hand, I think that the condition for normalizing relations between Belgrade and Pristina will continue to be a condition for any substantive consideration of joining the European Union," she said.

Sociologist Vladimir Vuletic also believes that there will not be any major shifts in policy after the European Parliament elections, but he told Kosovo Online that internal problems of EU countries will push the Western Balkans into the background. He expects the same regarding Kosovo, not excluding the possibility that the key role will once again be taken over by the United States.

"There is much talk about Europe shifting to the right. There is no doubt that, regarding the European Parliament, there have not been any dramatic major shifts that would affect personnel, nor in general the policies of Europe on key issues. Therefore, there will be no change in the stance towards the war in Ukraine, nor in the relations within the European Union itself, so when it comes to these key policies, there is no reason to expect any significant shifts," said Vuletic.

He states that significant upheavals within individual leading EU countries are more important for Europe and believes they will lead to less interest in regional issues in the Balkans.

"They will primarily focus on their internal issues. We see that parliamentary elections have already been announced in France, and the ruling coalition in Germany is significantly shaken, so we can expect less interest in the idea of enlargement. On the other hand, when it comes to the issues that concern us the most, primarily Kosovo, we could potentially expect that the focus will diminish and that the key role will again be handed over to the United States, as has been the case before," Vuletic states.

Commenting on the current geopolitical situation, he notes that changes do not happen quickly and that the West's idea is "to fragment this region to the extent that it is easier to control."

"This generally does not suit Serbia. Serbs are numerically the largest nation and are territorially dispersed, but we see that this policy has already led to Serbs almost no longer being a significant political factor in Croatia. Montenegro and Serbia have separated, making the position of Serbs in Montenegro more difficult. Today, this situation is somewhat different and better than it was before, but we must remember that change is always possible. The West's policy, not because they like or dislike someone more, as they ultimately don't care, but because they are primarily interested in having small, as small as possible, states," says the renowned sociologist.

He believes that one of the things that could influence this region would be Donald Trump's victory in the US elections.

"Remember, towards the end of his term, Mr. Grenell and he already, so to speak, had a certain plan for this region, for the relations between Belgrade and Pristina. It was never formalized, but it is roughly known what that plan was based on, which is significantly different from what the current administration is trying to implement," says Vuletic.

Belgzim Kamberi from the "Musine Kokalari" Institute for Social Policy also believes that geopolitical trends could change after the US elections.

"It is difficult to know what the new geopolitical trends will be. One assumption that could somehow change things might be the election of Donald Trump in the United States, given his unconventional political profile. Regarding the European elections, the European Parliament itself will probably not change its policy or course, because the majority they have is the same as before," says the analyst from Pristina for Kosovo Online.

Speaking about the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, he believes that the international community will continue to seek the implementation of the agreements reached, but he does not exclude the possibility of reopening some "old questions."

"Will the need to implement the Community of Serbian Municipalities remain, or will something change in some new geopolitical order... Will we perhaps return to some ideas about territorial changes or border corrections, as was the case in 2016-2017, it is hard to know for now," he states.

Commenting on the idea of American professor and analyst Edward Joseph that the US President should appoint a special envoy for Kosovo's recognition, Kamberi says that this is currently unlikely, primarily because Biden is at the end of his term.

"It is not excluded, although it may have a little more dynamic for some kind of inclusion of Kosovo in NATO. Security policy and geopolitical trends in the Balkans have a higher priority than the political process of Kosovo's recognition by non-recognizers in the EU. So, I think that if there is a greater dynamic, it may be more in the context of including Kosovo in the NATO alliance due to the security circumstances that exist after all the crises we have, not only the war in Ukraine but also in Israel and other circumstances that have security implications that could destabilize the Balkans," says Kamberi.

He adds that the risk of destabilization and the security situation between Western and non-Western countries could eventually lead to new recognitions of Kosovo.

"In this context, even countries that have not recognized Kosovo, I am talking about countries from the so-called liberal democratic world, could see this as an urgency due to the rivalry between liberal and illiberal states, authoritarian states and democratic liberal states that have an increasing polarization between them year by year. And secondly, due to the new world order that could change, due to Trump's election, but also due to developments regarding the so-called 'new order' between China, Russia, the European Union, and the US states, then they might assess the urgency for even Spain and other EU countries to recognize Kosovo," Kamberi concludes.