Ivic: Negative stance of the US toward Kurti gives the opposition great room to maneuver

The majority of Kosovo’s citizens see America as their key protector, which is why any political conflict with Washington directly affects electoral prospects in Pristina, says Petar Ivic, associate of the Pupin Initiative. He tells Kosovo Online that the decline in support for Albin Kurti is precisely the result of damaged relations with the US, and that the opposition has wide room to make use of this in the upcoming elections.

Ivic lists the suspension of the strategic partnership between Kosovo and the US, statements by experts in the US House Committee who called Kurti obstructive, and criticisms by the US Embassy over restricting the participation of the Serbian population in political life, as key arguments that do not work in favor of the prime minister in his technical mandate.

“Most of the population in Kosovo sees America as the main patron and supporter of their statehood, so falling out with an actor like the US certainly cannot result in a good electoral outcome,” Ivic says.

He adds that the 10 percent drop in support for Self-Determination compared to the February elections is a trend that will very likely continue, but he draws attention to the fact that everything now depends on the opposition.

“So the main question is not to be against someone, but that the opposition must use the voter dissatisfaction, already made evident by Self-Determination’s decline, for its own political gain,” Ivic says.

He notes that the goal of Kurti’s policy toward the north is to draw even closer to his base, but stresses that US support for Kosovo is nevertheless decisive and that losing US backing is fatal for the Self-Determination leader.

Speaking about Self-Determination’s support in the 28 December elections, Ivic said he expects a further decline for the party, but that it is hard to talk in percentages because many factors are at play. Primarily, whether Kurti’s electorate will reward him for his actions in the north, and how much the opposition will succeed in capitalizing on the electoral drop he suffered in February.

“The two opposition actors with the greatest support after Self-Determination, the Democratic League of Kosovo and the Democratic Party of Kosovo, have great potential to capitalize on Self-Determination’s decline, not in terms of ideology but in terms of criticism of Kurti. In general, parties in Kosovo are not so ideologically divided but more on some everyday basis. All parties are in principle pro-American and pro-EU, but we see that this is not the case in practice now, and I think the two parties I mentioned – I see some coalition potential there, if they successfully remove the threat of Self-Determination and take a very large share of its former voters,” Ivic said.

He added that the best strategy for the opposition against Kurti would be to highlight US criticisms and the poor relations between Pristina and Washington.

“Simply by criticizing and emphasizing the poor relations with America, you appeal to 80 percent of the local population. However, there are many other issues, such as economic inefficiency, low living standards, and large-scale emigration. There is no shortage of topics with which we can criticize Kurti, and I think the opposition has great room to maneuver,” Ivic concluded.