Israel's recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, a move with far-reaching implications

Writing for Kosovo Online: Dragan Bisenic, journalist

On July 17, the Royal Palace in Rabat issued an official statement announcing that Israel recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. This development comes two and a half years after Israel and Morocco signed a normalization agreement in December 2020 as a part of the Abraham Accords.

Although the agreement did not require Israel to recognize Morocco's sovereignty over the area, the issue was given prominence by mention in the third paragraph, whereby the United States recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara - indeed one of the main incentives for Morocco to restore relations with Israel. The importance of this issue for Morocco was further clarified by the Moroccan King Mohammed VI in August 2022, who stated that Morocco measured its relations with other countries through the prism of the Sahara issue.

Rapid developments have marked Israel-Morocco relations since their renewal under the Abraham Accords. Over the past two years, the volume of bilateral trade has increased significantly, new collaborations in research, culture, and sports have emerged, and hundreds of thousands of Israelis have visited Morocco. Security cooperation between the countries has also been strengthened.

Morocco continues to increase its military capacity to respond to threats from the Polisario Front, which is supported by Algeria and partly with the help of Israel. In the past year alone, high-ranking military personnel from both countries have exchanged public visits, security, and cyber cooperation agreements have been signed, and arms deals have been reached, including the sale of drones and air defense systems.

Despite these impressive developments, relations between the countries are still missing important elements: the conversion of liaison offices into full embassies – a move agreed upon but not yet implemented – and summit meetings between the respective leaders. Israel's recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara is expected to facilitate the removal of obstacles and pave the way for further progress. Israeli analysts Morr Link and Pnina Sharvit Baruch stress that this move is significant for other aspects of bilateral relations, as well as in the broader context of the international arena, especially given the criticism directed at Israel regarding its policy towards the Palestinians, thus presenting potential implications that Israel must be ready.

One of those implications may also apply to Serbia, bearing in mind that in 2021, Israel acted differently when it came to Kosovo and recognized its independence after a long period of refusal to do so.

"Israel's decision to recognize Kosovo was made under US pressure. Otherwise, let's not forget that this was done within the framework of the agreement between Serbia and Kosovo with the US, and not with us, with Israel. I'm not trying to hide behind it, that decision was made by Israel after many years during which we did not recognize Kosovo. It's definitely against our interests in Serbia, it's against my interests," the Israeli Ambassador in Belgrade, Yahel Vilan said.

Ambassador Vilan rightly pointed to the US, since Israel "mirrored" the US position, even Trump's, which is in complete contrast when it comes to Morocco and Serbia.

Along with Serbia and the issue of Kosovo, Morocco is a country that has been facing the issue of Western Sahara for a very long time, with the fact that Morocco has not recognized Kosovo. The positions of other countries and international actors towards Kosovo and Western Sahara have many inconsistencies and disharmonies, and it is important not only to compare them but also to clarify the causes of these differences.

The United States is the only Western country that has fully accepted Morocco's position. After decades of maintaining neutrality on the issue, on December 10, 2020, the Trump administration announced the recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, in exchange for Morocco joining the Abraham Accords and normalizing its relations with Israel.

The declaration asserts, among other things, that an independent Saharan state is not a realistic option for resolving the conflict and that true autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty is the only viable solution.

Despite reports that the Biden administration re-evaluated this position in the early months of his presidency, the declaration has not been retracted and still appears on the State Department's website. Other official websites - for example, the CIA website include Western Sahara as a part of the sovereign territory of Morocco. This situation pleases Morocco, and Israel, which were concerned that withdrawing the declaration could jeopardize its increasingly prosperous relations with the country. However, recent US references to the issue in April 2023 indicate US support for Morocco's autonomy plan and UN efforts to promote a solution but do not explicitly acknowledge Moroccan sovereignty over the territory.

The Western Sahara region is located on the northwest coast of Africa. Covering 250,000 square kilometers, it is mostly barren, with a population of about 640,000. This population includes the Sahrawi people, as well as Moroccans who moved to the area with the encouragement of the government. The number of Moroccans living in the region is said to be greater than the native population, although it is not known how authentic this claim is.

Until 1975, Western Sahara was under Spanish colonial rule for about ninety years after the Berlin Conference of 1884, when Western powers established their control and trade in Africa. When the era of decolonization began, both Morocco and Mauritania claimed sovereignty over Western Sahara. Meanwhile, the UN General Assembly recognized citizens' right to self-determination. As a result, a series of resolutions from 1965 onwards ordered Spain to take immediate steps to free the territory from its colonial rule.

These resolutions emphasized the need for a referendum on self-determination – offering a choice between independence or joining another country.

Spain conducted a census in 1974 in preparation for the referendum and its subsequent withdrawal from the region.

In October 1975, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued an advisory opinion, arguing that there were no ties of sovereignty between the territory and Morocco or Mauritania and that there were no obstacles to applying the principle of self-determination to the territory.

The Moroccan King rejected the opinion of the International Court of Justice, and in November 1975 the Moroccan government organized the "Green March", in which hundreds of thousands of Moroccan citizens marched towards the Western Sahara. A week later, on November 14, 1975, Spain, Morocco, and Mauritania concluded the Treaty of Madrid to regulate the end of Spanish colonial rule.

After that, in early 1976, Spain ceded control of the area to Morocco and Mauritania. The two countries divided the region between themselves: Morocco took control of the northern two-thirds and Mauritania took control of the southern third.

The Polisario Front was formally constituted in 1973 with the aim of expelling foreign forces and achieving the independence of Western Sahara. In 1976, the movement declared the independence of the territory and the establishment of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR).  Since 1979, the UN has recognized the Polisario as the legitimate representative of the Sahrawi people. The Polisario Front launched a guerilla war against Morocco and Mauritania, supported by Algeria. In 1979, Mauritania withdrew from its part of the territory, and most of the area was then occupied by Morocco. Accordingly, hostilities continued against Morocco. As a result of the fighting, many Sahrawis fled the area; most settled in refugee camps in Algeria, where they still reside today.

In 1991, the UN brokered a ceasefire agreement between Morocco and the Polisario Front. This pact stipulates that a referendum will be held within two years, allowing residents to choose either independence or integration into Morocco. In response, the Security Council established a UN force, the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) to oversee the implementation of the referendum. However, the referendum was stopped due to disputes over voting rights.

In the early 2000s, several proposals were made to resolve the ongoing dispute. The former US Secretary of State, James Baker, drafted a framework agreement known as "Baker Plan I", proposing the autonomy of Western Sahara under Moroccan sovereignty. Morocco supported the idea and has since said it opposes a referendum or any proposal that could lead to an independent state in Western Sahara. The Polisario refused to even consider it. In 2003, Baker proposed an updated plan, known as "Baker Plan II", which included holding a referendum after four years of self-rule, allowing people in refugee camps to participate and vote. This time, the Polisario Front accepted the plan while Morocco rejected it.

In April 2004, the Security Council passed a general resolution emphasizing the need for a negotiated settlement, effectively reducing its support for "Baker Plan II". MINURSO's original mandate - organizing a referendum on independence - has essentially been replaced by a cease-fire monitoring role and the fruitless search for an agreed political solution.

In 2007, Morocco proposed a plan to establish a local regional administration – the Sahara Autonomous Region (SAR) – under Moroccan sovereignty. Morocco would be responsible for foreign relations and the security of the territory, while an independent government elected by the residents would have a measure of autonomy in other matters. This plan was rejected by the Polisario Front. Since then, there have been several outbreaks of violence in the territory, although a ceasefire was essentially held until 2020. In November 2020, the Polisario Front declared an end to a 1991 UN-brokered ceasefire and continued armed attacks on Moroccan forces in Western Sahara and southern Morocco, after the Moroccan armed forces crossed the armistice line on November 13 and entered the UN demilitarized buffer zone, which is located in the de facto territory of the SADR.

Most countries do not recognize Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara; some recognize the independence of SADR. The UN considers the Western Sahara region a non-self-governing territory, where decolonization has yet to be completed. The European Union shares a similar view, arguing that Morocco controls the area as an occupying power and is therefore subject to international laws of occupation. In several rulings, the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) considers that the agreements between the EU and Morocco do not apply to the Western Sahara. This includes, for example, trade and fisheries agreements.

SADR was recognized as a full member of the African Union in 1984 – a move that prompted Morocco's withdrawal from the Union, until its re-entry in 2017. Approximately eighty countries, mostly in the Global South, have recognized SADR, although as recently as 2015, around half of them have either suspended or revoked its recognition. This is an indication of Morocco's diplomatic success in gaining international support.

On the other hand, most Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, and Yemen, expressed their support for the Moroccan position and the "territorial integrity of the Kingdom". Furthermore, over twenty countries have opened consulates in the region, most of them from West Africa, along with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Jordan.

In contrast, Morocco's neighbor Tunisia maintains a neutral stance on the issue, although the Tunisian President extended an invitation to the leader of the Polisario Front to attend an international conference in the country in August 2022. This led to a diplomatic crisis with Morocco, as a result of which both countries recalled their ambassadors.

The change in Spain's position is particularly interesting.

Since its withdrawal from Western Sahara, the former colonial power has sought to maintain neutrality on the issue. Thus, after the declaration of the Trump administration in December 2020, Spain was in no hurry to express its support for Morocco. Moreover, in April 2021, Spain even allowed the leader of the Polisario Front, Brahim Ghali, to be treated in a Spanish hospital when he contracted COVID-19. Spain's efforts to maintain neutrality, along with its potential discreet provision of medical care to Ghali, infuriated Rabat.

In response, Rabat summoned the Spanish Ambassador and withdrew the Moroccan Ambassador to Spain. While open support for Morocco could damage Spain's relations with Algeria, until recently its primary gas supplier, Morocco seems to have insisted on this as the price for restoring relations. Finally, Spain announced its support for the Moroccan position in March 2022, with the Spanish Prime Minister writing to King Mohammed VI that Morocco's autonomy plan was the "most serious, realistic and credible" solution to the conflict, leading to the restoration of relations.

In any case, Morocco continues to strengthen its position, which is contributed by a series of diplomatic successes related to the issue of Western Sahara, and Israel's recognition, almost without any conditions, is one of the most significant gains of Moroccan diplomacy. From all this, it can be seen that the answers to the questions of territorial integrity are far from exhausted, which, of course, also applies to Kosovo.