New, exclusively American, Balkan

Writing for Kosovo online: Dragan Bisenic, journalist

The US legislators in the House of Representatives and the Senate are intensively dealing with the Western Balkans. The crisis in the north of Kosovo only fermented the activities of congressmen and senators, so visits, statements, initiatives, and public hearings became more and more frequent. The last of them was the hearing of the US Envoy for the Balkans, Gabriel Escobar, in the Subcommittee on Europe of the Committee on Foreign Policy of the House of Representatives. These are all things that strengthen the US role in the Balkans, which may soon become exclusive, as in some other European regions, the Baltics or Scandinavia.

This hearing came after two months of crisis in the north of Kosovo. The center of Escobar's presentation was the Ohrid Agreement. It is the "foundation of progress for the region", but also the way to open the door for "greater recognition of Kosovo around the world". According to Escobar, "the agreement obliges Serbia to recognize the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Kosovo, to recognize the national symbols of Kosovo, flags, documents it issues, diplomas, passports, car plates, identity cards and to refrain from blocking Kosovo in any international organizations".

What is new is the changed dynamics of expectations of reaching a final agreement. Escobar said in May that he expected the negotiations to be concluded by the end of the summer. At the hearing, he specified that "in the coming year, he expects great progress in the normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia."

The beginning of the strong activity of US legislators in the Balkans was in April, when three senators, active in the Committees for Foreign Policy and Armed Forces, Chris Murphy, Jeanne Shaheen, and Thom Tillis visited the Balkans to "confirm the support of the US to partners in the Balkans", because "we are experiencing the most uncertain military situation in Europe since the Second World War" and because "they estimate that the Balkans are "vulnerable" to Russian interference by which Putin wants to weaken the West".

"Putin has long been on the side of those who seek to undermine unity and territorial integrity in the Balkans and would like nothing more than to see the deepening of those divisions." the senators assessed, adding that peace in the Balkans could not be taken "for granted", the senators announced.

All three senators belong to the most active group in condemning the actions of Russian President Putin and Russia, they are supporters of the recognition of Kosovo's independence, and they were the initiators of the adoption of the Resolution on the occasion of the 30th  anniversary of the declaration of independence of Bosnia and Herzegovina, in which support for "democratic, pluralistic and prosperous Bosnia and Herzegovina" is highlighted. They are all proponents of the law that defines US policy towards the Western Balkans, especially from the perspective of the competing powers, Russia and China. This law, which is now in the procedure, represents the basis for the growing interest of senators and congressmen in the Balkans, and the crises that escalate from time to time give reasons for more frequent legislative initiatives.

The debate in the legislative body gives a new dimension to the Balkan issue. The policy driven by the State Department is a creation of the executive branch, but it lacks the political and public breadth provided through Congress. Congress is the one that includes and ensures the participation of the public in certain debates so that the debate on the Balkans has been raised to a higher level, which is often unpredictable, but very important.

Escobar spoke together with Derek Chollet two months ago in the Senate Committee on Foreign Policy, on May 18 of this year. Then Senators Chris Murphy and Gary Peters announced their arrival in the region and after two days they were in Pristina. The meetings took place in a very cordial atmosphere. The crisis in the north of Kosovo changed the US rhetoric towards Kosovo, Kosovo's Prime Minister Kurti, and the entire region.

In mid-June, the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, spoke by phone today with three US senators, Chris Murphy, Jeanne Shaheen, and Pete Ricketts. After this conversation, a bipartisan group of senators sent a letter to President Biden and called on him to focus his priorities on the security situation in the north of Kosovo. The letter followed a joint statement by a group of senators in June, in which they called for the calming down of the actions of Kosovo and Serbian forces, after visiting Pristina and Belgrade.

The US President Biden, meanwhile, in a message to Congress on June 20, assessed that the situation in the Western Balkans continued to pose a threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States of America. Biden informed the US legislature that it was therefore necessary to extend and expand the emergency declared by the Executive Order for the Western Balkans.

The last testimony of the Special Envoy for the Balkans, Gabriel Escobar, before the European Subcommittee of the Committee on Foreign Relations of the House of Representatives and the discussion on the crisis in Kosovo, led to an internal split among the Republicans who fully control this house. The chairman of the European Subcommittee, the Republican from New Jersey, Thomas Keane Jr., did not invite Trump's Envoy for the Balkans, Richard Grenell, who was also recently in the Balkans, to the meeting. After Steve Bannon brought this up on his radio show, the position of the Chairman of the Foreign Policy Committee, Texas Republican Michael McCaul, and his ability to chair the Committee were quickly questioned. The scandal became all the greater because it was allegedly established that neither Keane nor McCaul knew that Grenell was Trump's Envoy for the Balkans. In the midst of preparations for the Republican presidential candidate's election, this is seen as a planned attack on Trump and his candidacy.

Regardless of internal political reflections, the intonation of the congressman in matters of the greatest interest to the USA would not have changed much even if other Republicans had been at the session, except that the balance in the evaluation of the situation in the north of Kosovo would probably have been different. It is a question that may have an effect on our understanding and acceptance of the results of the meeting, but not on what the US wants to achieve. Congressman Keane was clear about this when he emphasized that "the USA must play a leading role in the Western Balkans".

Escobar, as well as Chairman Keane, pointed out that Kosovo's refusal to form the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities had numerous negative consequences, which included the reluctance of some of the 5 remaining EU states to recognize Kosovo. He said that this was why he was encouraging the Kosovo government to, with US support, form the CSM in such a way that this organization did not disrupt the constitutional order or their functioning, so that "we would have already made progress this year in the campaign of recognition of dependence", but that "so far he has not received the consent of the Government of Kosovo" - Escobar added.

It is interesting that the "Open Balkan" initiative, which was started by Serbia, Albania, and North Macedonia, and which Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, in his recent tour to the Western Balkans, as he takes over the presidency of the Berlin Process, an initiative led by the European Union, declared obsolete, stands in the draft as a high point, the 9th point of this law. It is said to be an initiative whose "comprehensive goals the US continues to support", with the condition that "it remains open to all countries of the Western Balkans and is aligned with the goals and standards set by the EU for joining this bloc".

The draft law, which is in the procedure in the Senate, was transferred to the Committee for Foreign Affairs of the Senate in May, from where it will be referred to further procedure. The law, under the full name of the Law on Prosperity and Democracy in the Western Balkans, foresees, among other things, assistance to the governments of the region, non-governmental organizations, and the media in order to, as they point out, fight against Russian and Chinese influence in these countries and to attract the region to the West. This law would support economic development in the region through infrastructure, trade, and anti-corruption initiatives, including the codification of sanctions to deter destabilizing activities in the Western Balkans.

Great importance, both in terms of level and structure, is given to cyber security and suppression of disinformation, which are presented as one of the most important US interests in this law. The law refers to six countries of the Western Balkans and lists them individually: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia, and Serbia. If we could simplify, this law represents the codification of exclusive US dominance in the Balkans. The law seems to have a strong ambition. It is clear that Russian and Chinese influences will no longer be tolerated, and if there are any, then they will only be able to exist with US permission. Rarely in any US document can one read such a sentence that refers to the US national interest, "Reducing the dependence of the Western Balkans on Russian natural gas supplies is in the national interest of the United States." Therefore, it is no less, no more, than the national interest of the USA, and national interests are defended by military means. The rivalry with China is expressed in a much milder way, where it is only stated that "the growing influence of China in the Western Balkans could also have a detrimental effect on strategic competition, democracy and economic integration with Europe".

In the development of certain measures, all the countries of the Western Balkans were mentioned, some even more than once, while Serbia was not mentioned even once, even though it did not introduce sanctions against Russia, nor, for example, is the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina or topics related to it mentioned anywhere. In part, it can be assumed that Serbia was bypassed due to the position of the US Ambassador Christopher Hill that Serbia should be "helped" in this matter since it is in a "specific position with Russia", specifying that it is a question of complete energy dependence. It can therefore be assumed that this law is intended to be adopted and come into force when the dialogue is concluded and when both sides sign the Comprehensive Agreement on the Normalization of Relations.

The law has numerous procedural provisions that regulate the application of this law and which are boring to read, but have essential importance for the application and functioning of this law. The most important of them envisages the development of a five-year strategy for economic development and democratic progress in the Western Balkans. No later than 180 days after the effective date of this law, the Secretary of State and the Administrator of the US Agency for International Development, in coordination with the Secretary of the United States Treasury, the Secretary of Commerce, the Executive Director of the Development Finance Corporation, shall submit to the appropriate congressional committees a regional strategy for economic development and democratic progress for the Western Balkans.

This, of course, is not the final text of the law, but the future of the Balkans will depend on its evolution, and that means on the future activity of senators and congressmen who will comment on it.