Bregu: Relations between Tirana and Tehran are poor, but I do not expect a direct attack by Iran

Political analyst Prof. Dr. Ziliftar Bregu told Kosovo Online that, among all the countries of the Western Balkans, Albania most strongly supports the actions of the United States and Israel in Iran, but that he does not expect this to lead to a direct conflict between Tirana and Tehran. He points out, however, that the region will feel the economic consequences, primarily the rise in oil and gas prices.

“First of all, we have the economic consequences caused by this conflict, and these are global consequences. We cannot escape this. As we can see, an increase in the price of oil and gas products is expected, which will immediately affect the economy in all its areas. This impact, although global, is still the simplest and smallest consequence compared to the other consequences of this war,” Bregu said.

The professor highlights Albanian support for the United States and Israel, as well as the severing of diplomatic relations between Tirana and Tehran, but nevertheless does not expect an Iranian attack on Albania.

“When speaking about war, the first thing that comes to mind is the consequences for human lives. The consequences are direct and indirect. By direct, we mean the participation of parties in the conflict, and in that sense, our region is far from this war. However, in our region, we must make a distinction. Albania is geographically distant (from the Middle East), but because of its actions and its positions, it is not far, unlike other countries in the region. The first difference is that in Albania, we have a community of the Iranian opposition, which affects relations between Albania and Iran. Is this detail, or this commitment by Albania, a motive for conflict between the two countries? No. If that were the case, the conflict would have happened earlier. We must add to this the fact that Albania has severed diplomatic relations with Iran. It expelled the Iranian embassy from Tirana. We no longer have diplomatic relations, and that is also another reason for problems,” Bregu said.

He believes that there is a possibility that in Tehran they might consider an attack on Albania, but that so far, all such claims are fake news.

“However, I am not inclined to believe that there will be direct consequences for us or that what is being said will come true, which I consider fake news, according to which Iran has planned an attack on Albania. This could happen, but logic tells us that these reports are so far false. So this may be a real possibility that could be discussed within the Iranian government, but news from serious sources does not tell us anything like that. For now, these are fake news,” he said.

Speaking about religious differences within Albania, Bregu says he does not expect the conflict in the Middle East to divide Albanian citizens along religious lines, but believes such divisions might be seen in the region.

“As for concerns regarding the religious diversity that exists among us, I do not think Albania will have problems because of this. The region as a whole may have problems, but I do not think that in Albania there will be such factors that could harm the country’s stability. That is my belief, I may be wrong, but I believe that this religious diversity does not threaten us,” Bregu said.