Drobac: Hungarian derecognition of Kosovo possible but not yet realistic

Former Serbian ambassador to Hungary, Rade Drobac, assesses that official Budapest knows the importance Serbia places on Kosovo and, if given the opportunity, will not hesitate to revoke its recognition, however, at this moment, such an expectation is not realistic.

"For Hungary to revoke the recognition of so-called Kosovo, in my opinion, international circumstances would need to change even more drastically, and such a decision should not drastically harm its relations with the Western bloc or endanger its membership primarily in the EU, but also in NATO. This could happen relatively quickly or not at all, depending on the further development of international relations, the resolution of EU-US relations, and the conflict in Ukraine. In any case, Hungary today knows the importance Serbia attaches to Kosovo and Metohija and the defense of its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and if an opportunity arises, it will not miss it," Drobac said to Kosovo Online.

He emphasizes that recent decisions by official Budapest reflect a clear policy of independence in making decisions on key international issues, but that it is unrealistic to expect that one of those decisions will be the revocation of Kosovo's recognition.

"Voting against the Resolution on Srebrenica is currently the pinnacle of Hungarian independent policy, as well as voting against Kosovo's associated membership in the NATO Parliamentary Assembly. Hungary has also shown its independence and autonomy on many other issues, such as its relations with the Republika Srpska. However, the revocation of Kosovo's recognition is still not realistic. Hungary primarily protects its own interests, and such an act would endanger them, as it would certainly come under the attack of Western countries, primarily the US and Great Britain, as well as Germany and France, which would really cost Hungary, and it seems to me that it is not yet ready for that," Drobac stated.

He assesses that Hungary has been pursuing an increasingly decisive and clear policy of defending its national and state interests over the past decade.

"The current development of events on the international stage forces Hungary to pursue an increasingly decisive and clear policy of defending its national and state interests over the past decade, in which it increasingly diverges from the overall policies of the EU and NATO, rejecting external impositions and increasingly making decisions based on its own interests," Drobac said.

Recalling that Hungary was one of the first countries to recognize Kosovo in March 2008 and promote its independence, Drobac points out that official Budapest began to change this stance when it realized that Serbia would not watch this passively and that it could negatively affect bilateral relations between the two countries, consequently affecting the status and privileges of the Hungarian minority in Serbia.

"Since 2013, Hungary has significantly softened its support for so-called Kosovo, avoiding promoting it at gatherings in Hungary, which it previously did, but still not to the extent that it would call into question its loyalty to NATO, the EU, and the US. In the last two years, international relations have become more complicated, and Hungary certainly does not want to fight for others' interests, which is why it represents a kind of opposition within the EU and NATO, and the entire Western bloc, opposing uniformity and unconditional support for Ukraine and all Western projects," Drobac said.

He says that bilateral relations between Serbia and Hungary, despite the different positions of the two countries, are at the level of strategic partnership today.

"Today, the relations between the two neighboring countries are at the level of strategic partnership and close cooperation, but their positions are still very different. Hungary has been an EU member since 2004, a NATO member since 1999, and is part of the Western coalition of countries that conduct a common foreign policy, which partially limits its maneuvering space for independent action. In the first years after the warming of relations, Hungary adhered to its obligations towards NATO and the EU quite firmly; however, changes in the global political scene and the development of bilateral relations with Serbia have led it to a dilemma about the extent to which it should follow such a policy," Drobac emphasized.

He recalls that the upward trajectory of bilateral relations began at the end of 2012.

"Overall relations between Serbia and Hungary started to improve at the end of 2012 and have continually developed politically and economically. The previous mistrust and rare high-level contacts gradually intensified, especially after 2013 and the 'historic reconciliation,' which largely overcame or significantly mitigated differences in views on historical events during World War II," Drobac said.

He adds that this is due not only to the similar geopolitical positions and interests of Hungary and Serbia but also to the evidently similar consequences resulting from rapid and unexpected developments on the broader geopolitical stage.

"From the migrant crisis, the gas crisis, the rapid degradation of international relations on a global scale, and especially the frequent tensions in the region, both countries have been directed towards cooperation and building mutual trust. This has led to good and increasingly better relations between the leaderships of both countries at the highest and high levels. Meetings are frequent, not only official but also numerous working meetings. The leaders of the two countries, as well as their associates, regularly meet and consult on issues of bilateral relations, but also on international issues that increasingly affect all countries, including Serbia and Hungary," Drobac concluded.