Gudzic and Pavkovic: Kosovo heading toward elections, new pressure on Serbs expected

Kosovo is moving toward elections, and during the pre-election campaign new pressure on Serbs can be expected from the Self-Determination Movement and Albin Kurti, said Milos Pavkovic of the Center for European Policies and historian Aleksandar Gudzic from Gracanica.

“Kosovo and Metohija has been in a political and institutional crisis for years, and the responsibility lies with the largest party, Self-Determination. Kurti and his movement have shown they are masters at bypassing institutions and regulations. I think a president will not be elected today either, and I am convinced that Kosovo is heading for new elections,” Gudzic told RTS.

He pointed out that after the dissolution of the Assembly, a 45-day deadline begins for holding elections, which should take place on May 31 or June 7.

However, Gudzic says it is likely that Self-Determination will again seek an opinion from the Constitutional Court in order to postpone the elections until summer, when the diaspora is expected to arrive in Kosovo.

He recalled that Self-Determination and Kurti have their strongest support in the diaspora and that their goal is similar to the previous elections.

“By moving the elections to summer, Kurti hopes to repeat the December result, and he will use the pre-election period to implement populist measures, confront an alleged Serbian threat and the Serb List, in order to further consolidate his electorate,” Gudzic explained.

He stressed that only Self-Determination benefits from this kind of state of emergency, adding that Kurti has shown he functions perfectly in such circumstances.

He emphasized that Kurti has lost coalition potential and that Kosovo’s political scene is deeply divided, with responsibility lying solely with Self-Determination.

Pavkovic assessed that the required quorum for electing a president will not be reached today either, since the opposition has signaled it will not participate in the session and believes it can achieve a better result in new parliamentary elections than in December.

He noted that there have only been attempts at negotiations, but no serious intentions from either side to reach an agreement, recalling that the opposition criticized Self-Determination for not being ready to engage in substantive dialogue, while Kurti blamed the opposition for the situation.

He believes Kurti has always aimed to win an absolute majority and intends to defeat the opposition in new elections and force it to vote for his candidate.

Pavkovic also said that the international community does not want to interfere, as it does not have a good experience cooperating with Kurti and is aware that any advice would be misused, which is why they allow him to make mistakes and potentially lose power.

Gudzic said the influence of Western embassies in Kosovo is questionable, given that Kurti is not part of a political establishment that blindly followed instructions from foreign embassies.

Pavkovic pointed out that Kurti’s goal is to hold elections in the summer, but noted that Kurti has created a new political opponent in Vjosa Osmani, who will certainly take part in the new elections and has the potential to take votes from him.

He stressed that Kosovo is now facing a new institutional vacuum, in which none of its institutions will be functioning at full capacity, raising the question of how the system will operate.

“This is a precedent in Kosovo’s institutional functioning,” Pavkovic concluded.

Gudzic and Pavkovic are convinced that pressure on Serbs will increase during the pre-election campaign.

“It has been shown that during campaigns Kurti uses Serbs as a threat in order to consolidate his electorate. This is known as a rally-around-the-flag campaign. For Serbs, no improvement can be expected in the short or long term, because Kurti’s political platform is built on opposition to everything that came out of the dialogue, and he also opposes the Ahtisaari Plan. He wants to abolish even the existing rights of Serbs, which is evident on the ground,” Pavkovic explained.

Gudzic added that experience has shown that ahead of elections, whether parliamentary or local, Kurti intensifies pressure on Serbs.

“We can expect something similar in the upcoming elections, whenever they are held. Kurti has nothing to offer voters and uses confrontation with Serbs to compensate for shortcomings in the economy. He can only offer cheap populism and nationalism,” he said.

Gudzic concluded that the political crisis will continue after the elections and that it would not surprise him if there are additional parliamentary elections by the end of the year.