Hill: Ruling party's defeat has plunged Serbia into an uncertain political future

Former US Ambassador to Serbia Christopher Hill said that although the general direction of the Student List is toward closer alignment with European positions, this orientation cannot be taken for granted, given the diverse currents within the movement.

In an article for the Atlantic Council, he said that some of the “ever-present” issues in Serbian politics, such as Kosovo and Vucic's balancing act between East and West, would likely remain on the agenda in some form.

The loss of Vucic’s ruling party to a student-led coalition has plunged Serbia into an uncertain political future that will test the optimism and energy so apparent during two years of student street demonstrations, Hill said.

The incoming government faces the daunting task of maintaining Serbia’s hard-earned economic successes while rebuilding the country’s political institutions and civil life, he added.

“The “Student List–Students Win” was a stunning success. The energetic coalition enjoyed broad public support that extended beyond Belgrade and other large municipalities to include voters in the countryside. Serbia’s traditional opposition parties often ignored the rural areas. Now some of those traditional parties lie in ruins, failing to achieve even the threshold numbers to achieve any seats in parliament. As if to rub in their past failures, the Student List announced that it will not accept Vucic’s supporters or those who supported the traditional opposition into its government,” Hill said.

Transforming the movement’s menu of anti-Vucic slogans into governmental policies and programs that represent the interests of its broad-based coalition will be a challenge, he added.

“While the overall thrust of the movement is to move closer to European views, this orientation cannot be taken for granted given the many nooks and crannies of the formation. Hearty perennials of Serbian politics, including Kosovo as the emotional third rail of the country’s state affairs and Vucic’s own balancing game between the East and the West, will probably remain in some form,” Hill noted.

Nevertheless, he said, there is no doubt that all Serbs can take great pride in the smooth running of the elections with apparently very few examples of the fraud and irregularities that were broadly predicted just days before by Student List supporters.

He added that Vucic’s concession speech, short, clear, and on point, was a welcome development to those who worried about a long period of unrest.

“Serbia will need help in this delicate transformation, and the eyes of many Serbs will turn to the EU in the hope that it will pick up the pace of its integration efforts. A Serbia integrated and anchored in the EU will benefit the entire region,” Hill concluded.