Ivanov: Until the formation of the assembly and government, Kosovo is on pause in the EU

Research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, Helena Ivanov, stated that Kosovo will be "on pause" in the European Union, including the anticipated funds from the Growth Plan, until a functioning assembly and stable government are formed.

"As long as the assembly and government are not formed, we can expect that Kosovo will be completely on a kind of pause. The EU has expressed a desire and requested that Kosovo form a government as soon as possible so the country can continue to function and implement the reforms expected by the EU. I believe that until this crisis is resolved, the awaited funds will not be disbursed, and the required reforms will not be implemented, nor will the relationship between Kosovo and the EU be able to function normally in any way," Ivanov told Kosovo Online.

One of the increasingly likely outcomes of the institutional crisis could be new elections in Kosovo.

Ivanov says this is becoming a more realistic option because "there is very little chance that Kosovo will manage to form a government."

"Even if a government is eventually formed, it does not appear promising in terms of stability. I believe Kosovo is heading toward a scenario where new elections will be held. Whether those elections happen immediately because a new government cannot be formed, or shortly after an unstable government is formed, remains to be seen. But until we get a clear government with majority support, this current crisis will only deepen further," the analyst said.

In the case of new elections, she has no doubt that there will be a “pause” in relations with the EU.

"If we end up with the scenario of new elections now, I believe that everything Kosovo expects from the European Union will be put on hold until elections are held again and until a majority is formed in the next round that can clearly form a government and continue negotiations and cooperation with EU institutions," Ivanov said confidently.

She added that the same applies to the continuation of the EU-sponsored dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina.

"For some time now, the normalization process between Belgrade and Pristina hasn’t been functioning properly. More than a decade after the signing of the Brussels Agreement, there is still no CSM. All the recent negotiation rounds, including those in Brussels and Ohrid, have not resulted in any significant changes. We also saw a situation where Albin Kurti and his then-government made numerous unilateral moves, which greatly frustrated the EU and Kosovo’s Western partners, leading to certain measures being imposed," Ivanov said.

She believes that at a time when Kosovo formally has no government, it also lacks legitimacy and a mandate to do anything in terms of normalization, and therefore, no functional dialogue should be expected.

As for what future negotiations might look like, she emphasizes it will largely depend on who becomes Kosovo’s next prime minister.

"Many experts I agree with say that one of the reasons Kurti was unable to form a majority is precisely because of the way he acted during the normalization process. A large number of people living in Kosovo did not agree with that unilateral approach, believing the cost was too high due to the deterioration of relations with Western partners. If we have Kurti again, the question is whether he will continue with the same policy or adapt it to improve relations with the West. And if we have someone new, it remains to be seen what their approach will be," Ivanov concluded.