Jeremic: German Government's collapse was expected; we'll see what stance they will take toward Kurti now

Former Yugoslav Ambassador to Germany, Zoran Jeremic, says that the collapse of Germany's "traffic light" coalition was anticipated, driven by economic factors, and that Germany’s continued involvement in the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue would depend on future actions taken by Kosovo’s Prime Minister, Albin Kurti.

“Realizing that things are turning somewhat against him, and with Trump no longer backing him as the previous administration did, Kurti will likely try to escalate the conflict. That is his only remaining card. He can no longer rely on the same level of support, so this escalation is what may shape Germany’s position on Western Balkan issues,” Jeremic told Kosovo Online.

Commenting on the collapse of the ruling coalition in Germany, Jeremic says it was expected.

“From the start, the coalition was at risk of falling apart, as it was an unnatural coalition created only due to parliamentary arithmetic and power dynamics. The surprise came during the US elections, with Trump’s victory changing a lot for Germany, especially considering that most of the ruling coalition has a rather negative stance toward Trump. Now they must find ways to maintain cooperation with the US under these circumstances,” Jeremic explained.

He says that the messages from Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock should be interpreted in this light.

“Everyone emphasized the importance of the alliance because they know it will look different compared to the previous administration,” Jeremic said.

He adds that the coalition's collapse was also influenced by economic factors, specifically the "debt brake" in the German Constitution, which limits government borrowing.

“Scholz sought to suspend this constitutional clause, given the extraordinary circumstances due to the war in Ukraine, so that Germany could take on more debt. Lindner opposed this, advocating for sending Taurus missiles instead of funds. Scholz is against sending Taurus missiles, knowing they would be used for long-range attacks on Russia the moment they arrive in Ukraine. The first Taurus missile to hit a bridge in Crimea could signify the beginning of attacks on Germany,” Jeremic pointed out.

When asked how the crisis in Germany might impact the Western Balkans and the Kosovo issue, Jeremic emphasized that Germany's involvement would depend on its assessment of potential benefits.

“This engagement will be less about ties to Kosovo specifically, and more about what Germany stands to gain, as it is now searching for a new identity and aiming for leadership in Europe. One pathway for this is through Ukraine and crisis zones like Kosovo. Whether Germany will risk taking on Kosovo alongside Ukraine as its priority is difficult to say. It will largely depend on the stance of the US and of Kurti himself,” Jeremic concluded.