How will Trump’s return to the White House affect the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue?

The Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, which has long needed revitalization, might gain a chance for survival following Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections. As during Trump’s first term, when the Washington Agreement was signed, analysts believe that the US influence on the dialogue this time could again emphasize economic normalization of relations. The possibility that the new US administration will establish a separate track in the dialogue, different from the one currently guided by Brussels, is not ruled out.

Written by Dusica Radeka Djordjevic

Opinions vary on whether Trump’s closest associates responsible for the Western Balkans will lean toward Pristina, toward Belgrade, or remain neutral. Some believe Pristina will no longer be given leeway for unilateral actions, while others predict both sides will be under pressure.

“The situation is somewhat more favorable for us, but there won’t be any tectonic shifts,” Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said yesterday when asked about expectations regarding Trump’s victory.

The Serb List stated that they expect the position and issues of the Serbian community in Kosovo to gain additional focus, expressing confidence that President Trump’s administration will not allow “the continued systemic persecution of the Serbian people from their centuries-old homes in Kosovo and Metohija.”

Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti also welcomed the opportunity for “working together with Trump for progress and peace,” as he posted on the social network “X,” despite having said earlier this year that Trump’s potential return has caused “stress and anxiety across the continent, and Kosovo is no exception.”

Kurti’s previous statements should also not be forgotten – that he does not accept the Washington Agreement, viewing it as unconstitutional, which is a document signed in 2020 on Kosovo’s behalf by then-Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti, who sat beside Trump in the White House.

“I see this more as an attempt at a quick deal to preserve the international image and domestic politics of the former president rather than an actual effort to help Kosovo and Serbia make progress,” Kurti remarked as prime minister in 2021 regarding the Washington Agreement.

At that time, he also stated that US President Joe Biden was “among the most progressive leaders in the world.”

Assistant professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade, Milan Krstic, tells Kosovo Online that the US election outcome, with Donald Trump’s victory, is unfavorable for Albin Kurti, given that Kurti had clearly aligned himself with the Democratic candidate.

“He likely fears a repeat of the 2020 scenario, when under pressure from Trump’s administration, he was effectively removed, and Avdullah Hoti replaced him. However, it is uncertain if this will happen again. It is evident that people within Trump’s circle, who are expected to hold high positions, such as Richard Grenell, support different political options among Kosovo Albanians, primarily Hashim Thaci, who is currently imprisoned on war crime charges,” Krstic stated.

According to him, there is a possibility that over a longer period, the US could adopt a parallel approach to the EU-led dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, formally remaining within the EU-mediated negotiations but adding its own mediation strategy, similar to the one in 2019 and 2020. 

He explains that this independent approach would likely once again focus on the economy and what has been termed "economic normalization."

"In such a dialogue framework, there could be more space for some out-of-the-box thinking or solutions, which brings both opportunities and risks," Krstic emphasized.

The Executive Director of the Pupin Initiative, Vuk Velebit, expects that, after Donald Trump officially takes office as the newly elected US President, the pressure from America on Pristina’s administration, in the context of the dialogue with Belgrade, will be significantly stronger and that unilateral actions, as seen in the past, will not be tolerated.

"Given that Trump and those in his closest circle were highly engaged in the dialogue during his first term, I expect that this involvement will continue in the second term, with a ‘footnote’ acknowledging that circumstances have changed both globally and in Europe. With the ongoing war in Ukraine and the crisis in the Middle East, it remains to be seen whether the Balkans will be among Trump’s priority issues," Velebit stated for Kosovo Online.

Nevertheless, he adds that Richard Grenell, who previously served as the Special Envoy for the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, is expected to play a significant role in the US administration, possibly as Secretary of State or National Security Advisor, which are two very important roles. Velebit believes that Grenell will be able to influence the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue from such a position.

“He is a welcome guest in Belgrade, and I believe he will have greater sensitivity to the concerns of the Serbian community in Kosovo. More importantly, the US will likely shift from making statements to taking more concrete actions, including sanctions against the harmful and, I would say, anti-American and anti-Western policies of Albin Kurti. Therefore, I expect the pressure on Pristina’s administration to be much greater, and that unilateral moves, as seen previously, will no longer be tolerated,” Velebit emphasized.

According to Velebit, the economy will also be a primary focus, as it was during Trump’s first term and Grenell’s previous involvement in the dialogue.

“We have seen reports in both American and local media about projects planned in Belgrade and on the Albanian coast. I expect that in the context of the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, economic issues will be a priority. We will see how the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina will progress in the coming period to benefit Belgrade. I think Serbia has an opportunity to position itself as a credible and important American partner in the region, and Trump’s upcoming presidency could strengthen the relationship between Serbia and the US, restoring the alliance that has existed throughout much of our diplomatic history,” Velebit concluded.

Political analyst Nexhmedin Spahiu, however, holds a different view on who will come under Washington’s pressure in the continued dialogue.

"I think pressure will be placed on both sides, although Pristina has already made a written commitment that, if Belgrade fulfills its part, Pristina will fulfill its own," Spahiu stated for Kosovo Online.

When asked if the new US administration would insist on the establishment of the Community of Serb Municipalities, Spahiu said this could be expected since the Community is part of the agreement.

"The Community of Serb-majority Municipalities is part of the agreement. The Brussels Agreement, based on the Franco-German plan, envisions greater autonomy for Serbs through the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities in exchange for implicit recognition through the establishment of permanent diplomatic missions in Pristina and Belgrade," Spahiu explained.