Pavkovic: The most likely outcome is early elections; I don't believe Kurti could gain western support

Milos Pavkovic, associate at the European Policy Centre in Belgrade, told Kosovo Online that following the failure to constitute the Kosovo Assembly within the deadline set by the Constitutional Court, the most likely outcome would be early parliamentary elections.

“The interim measure enacted by the Constitutional Court, which has come into effect, essentially means there will be no parliamentary sessions until August 8, although it remains uncertain what will happen after that date. By all indications, events are heading toward new parliamentary elections, as it will be very difficult for the Constitutional Court to propose anything else in a future opinion. The situation remains open, but early parliamentary elections appear to be the most likely outcome,” Pavkovic said.

He explained that the issue arose due to a longstanding informal but institutionalized practice whereby the winning party always appoints the Speaker of Parliament. Given the current balance of power and the minimal or nonexistent coalition potential of the Self-Determination Movement — which won the most votes in the elections — their candidate could not secure the necessary support.

“They refused to make any compromise, citing that kind of informal precedent where the winning party always nominates the Speaker. On the other hand, the opposition parties were aware that Self-Determination lacked the majority needed in the Assembly to elect their candidate. It was a stalemate, and I don’t see what could happen now to change that,” Pavkovic said.

Considering that ambassadors in Kosovo became increasingly engaged yesterday as the deadline approached and even attended the penultimate attempt to constitute the Assembly, when asked whether there could be foreign pressure to resolve the situation without elections, Pavkovic stated he does not believe there is any particular willingness among foreign diplomats to do Kurti or Self-Determination any favors, as Kurti has brought Kosovo’s relations with the international community to a minimum.

“Kosovo is under EU sanctions, and the U.S. has very poor bilateral relations with its previously trusted partners. I don’t see any space for Kurti to gain Western support or for his candidate to be elected. On the other hand, there might be a possibility for the opposition to form some kind of anti-Kurti platform on which a parliamentary speaker could be elected, which would technically signal a change of power. But given the distribution of strength within the opposition and the ambition of each party to lead, without any one of them being in a position to do so, that too would be very difficult. So, I believe we are heading toward new parliamentary elections, likely to be held concurrently with the local ones in October,” Pavkovic opined.

He further explained that the Assembly should already be dissolved and elections called, but that an interim step lies in the hands of Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani, who is the one responsible for calling elections.

“She now needs to receive some kind of signal from the Constitutional Court on whether to call elections or what the next steps should be, given that the Court’s position was left vague — it issued an opinion on the 30-day deadline and a temporary measure postponing all sessions until August 8. So, if by August 8 there is still no constitutive session or election of the Speaker, the most realistic next step is the calling of early parliamentary elections, which should be done by the President of Kosovo,” Pavkovic concluded.