Radojkovic: The EU has neither a "stick" nor a "carrot" against Pristina’s unilateral moves

Due to the political crisis following the February elections, the leader of Self-Determination, Albin Kurti, currently finds it far more advantageous to “perform” before the domestic public and take unilateral actions at the expense of the Serbian community, rather than comply with international community demands—knowing full well that the EU lacks mechanisms, “neither stick nor carrot,” to prevent him, historian Stefan Radojkovic told Kosovo Online.

“He assesses that, on the domestic political front, it is more important to demonstrate the consistency of his beliefs and retain the voter base he still has, even though that base is clearly shrinking. There is a downward trend, though not yet enough to render him insignificant or a marginal player among Kosovo Albanians,” Radojkovic said.

Commenting on the continued closures of Serbian institutions in the north and the condemnations coming mostly from Western embassies, Radojkovic said this reflects the EU’s lack of mechanisms to stop such actions.

“This is why pressure from embassies has increased. The EU no longer establishes or enforces any sanction mechanisms against the Pristina administration—it’s now all about bilateral talks between embassies and Pristina officials. The subtle message is that the EU doesn’t have the capacity to incentivize Kurti to behave better—it has no 'carrot,' but it also has no 'stick',” Radojkovic explained.
He added that Pristina is blocked from joining the Council of Europe and may face further consequences for its unilateral actions, but that’s all the EU can do.

“In essence, it has been assessed in Pristina—especially by Kurti’s administration—that it is more important for him to maintain his political position and present himself as incorruptible, someone who is ‘self-determined’ for the Albanian cause—or as some would say, for a Greater Albania. And the indirect result of all this is that the Serbian community in Kosovo and Metohija suffers the most, because the Brussels Agreement is now effectively dead—and that is something he, among other things, had promised,” Radojkovic emphasized.

He pointed out that this kind of policy has led to the Brussels Agreement not being implemented by Pristina.

A possible penalty for this would be blocking the EU accession process, but Radojkovic notes that the EU has a problem with the “lack of carrot” because it has already determined that any future enlargement in the Western Balkans would be limited to Montenegro or Albania.

“Both Belgrade and Pristina know that the failure to implement the Brussels Agreement has no real consequences because enlargement is not even planned. Yes, it might be felt in the area of donations, some direct investments, or Council of Europe membership—but essentially, it seems that Kurti’s administration has used this period to completely hollow out any future Association of Serb-majority Municipalities by making sure that Serbs likely won’t even be present in Kosovo and Metohija,” the historian believes.

Therefore, he is convinced that the leader of Self-Determination, Albin Kurti, will try to remain a “relevant factor.”

“His thinking is short-term: to try to stay relevant, to delay the formation of the assembly, and to show steadfastness to his voters. And that is now what this political crisis within the Pristina administration reflects,” Radojkovic said.

He believes the key questions for Kurti at this point are whether he can secure the support of Vjosa Osmani or whether a transitional government will be formed, leading Kosovo into local elections this autumn and the election of a new president early next year.

“And that is why, essentially, he cannot afford to back down. He has to appear resolute both externally, in the face of international pressure, and internally, by being extreme toward the Serbs. Because it seems that these two issues are linked when it comes to the Pristina administration. Pristina’s treatment of the Serbian community is one of the conditions for it to be integrated into international organizations,” Radojkovic concluded.