Radojkovic: I don't expect any results in the investigation, only new pressure on Serbs

Historian Stefan Radojkovic told Kosovo Online that he does not expect any meaningful results from the investigation into the explosion in the Ibar-Lepenac canal, but he expects that the incident will lead to an increased presence of police units and further "encouragement" for the Serbian community to leave the region.

“I don’t expect any results. I expect some political statements, and even if preliminary findings about the investigation emerge, they will likely be buried under a sea of information, most probably from the Pristina administration,” Radojkovic said.

He expects Serbia to have a constructive approach but believes the incident will primarily impact the Serbian community in Kosovo.

"What will be the concrete consequences on the ground is that the northern municipalities of Kosovo and Metohija will likely become even more saturated with police stations and units and that they will attempt, in every possible way, to pressure the Serbian population, 'encouraging' them to leave, or at the very least, making their lives more difficult. Naturally, all of this is part of the preparations for the upcoming elections for the Pristina administration, scheduled for February next year," Radojkovic noted.

Asked if the incident could be linked to the dinner organized for Western Balkan leaders by the new President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, Radojkovic described the timing as "ideal" but not solely tied to this event.

“There is an expectation that the EU will be more sympathetic to Albin Kurti’s administration, but this timing also coincides with the upcoming US presidential transition. Pristina’s administration seems to understand that while the US won’t shift its strategic focus, the new administration is less favorable toward Kurti. This incident appears to be an effort to retain US attention on this part of the world, which is not a priority for the American administration. Simultaneously, it seeks to maintain good relations with the EU and possibly the outgoing German administration. Global political trends are changing, and they are not in Kurti’s favor,” Radojkovic said.

He adds that it is reasonable to argue the explosion in the Ibar-Lepenac canal benefits Pristina more than Belgrade.

“It seems this incident is more advantageous for Pristina. Since the Banjska case, Belgrade has been striving to avoid any connection with violent acts in Kosovo. It is reasonable to argue that Pristina stands to gain more, although certain weaknesses in their approach have been exposed,” Radojkovic said.

He emphasizes that the incident raises questions about the efficiency of the significant police presence in northern Kosovo.

“There are four northern municipalities in Kosovo filled with Kosovo police officers. If someone managed to carry this out, it raises questions about their effectiveness. How did this slip past them? Alternatively, if it didn’t slip past them, it suggests they allowed or even supported it in some way, as it benefits the Pristina administration,” he said.

Radojkovic also warns about the critical nature of Gazivode Lake, which spans both sides and is vital for Kosovo’s energy infrastructure and water supply.

“This demonstrates the fragility of infrastructure shared across the administrative line and how unsustainable anything tied to the Pristina administration really is,” he emphasized.

Radojkovic believes the primary goal of the recent incident was to maintain international focus on Kosovo.

“They are now trying to exploit the current situation following the US presidential election to escalate tensions between Serbia and Pristina, particularly in northern Kosovo, to attract or retain international attention. This is part of their effort to gain recognition for Pristina’s so-called independence. We have seen similar dynamics in the Ukraine-Russia relationship and recently in Syria. Local actors escalate tensions to keep certain issues in the international spotlight. This aligns with Albin Kurti’s recurring narrative that Serbia and Russia aim to destabilize the region, which is essentially a way to draw external actors into the disputes between Serbia and Pristina,” Radojkovic concluded.