Spahiu: If Belgrade and Pristina do not reach a final agreement by March, there may be a war

Analyst Nexhmedin Spahiu warns that if Belgrade and Pristina do not reach a final agreement before March, there is a danger of war, Koha reports.

Spahiu said that this war could break out because both sides wanted to show dominance over the north of Kosovo, and the West could let them fight if they saw that they did not reach an agreement.

"The risk of war between Kosovo and Serbia has not been avoided. Let's analyze once again the Franco-German plan that the US and the EU take as a basis. It is a compromise in which Serbia will recognize Kosovo in exchange for greater autonomy for the Kosovo Serbs than envisaged by Ahtisaari's plan and the Constitution of Kosovo. But it has been talked for 12 years about what will be the level of this autonomy. Where the settlement ends up depends on the situation on the ground, so we risk going to war as each side wants to show they dominate the north. In order to show that he dominates the north, Vucic withdrew the Serbs from the institutions of Kosovo, and Albin Kurti proved that despite the barricades and other problems, the Government of Kosovo could maintain the border and control the border points. I think it was just a truce mediated by the Americans, but this truce does not mean it can last indefinitely. If the parties reach a compromise before March, then war can be avoided, but if the West sees that the parties are not going that far, they will let them fight," he said.

According to him, when we talk about the Kosovo-Serb conflict, we are talking about all parts of Kosovo, including the possibility of Pristina being attacked.

"If the US sees that Serbia does not want to surrender and give up on Russia, then the Americans can allow Serbia to make a mistake by entering Kosovo to have an excuse to attack Belgrade violently. But we don't know if Belgrade will embark on such an adventure. Serbia does not accept the Franco-German plan, and I believe that if it does not accept it, there will be war," he said.

According to Spahiu, the reasons for the murder of Oliver Ivanovic are speculations but he pointed out that someone was spying on Ivanovic for the Government of Serbia, and that was why he was killed.

Spahiu said that Ivanovic had in mind to publish the names of war criminals.

"We can only guess about the reasons now, but one is that he was killed when Vucic wanted to have complete control over the political scene of the Serbs in Kosovo. After Oliver's murder, no one in the north dared to run against the Serb List. I have heard speculations that someone from the international community spied on the Government of Serbia and said they would publish the names of criminals during the war in Kosovo. It is speculated that when he started saying names, the Government of Serbia decided to get rid of him to cover up the criminals who participated in the massacres during the war in Kosovo. I don't know how true all that is," Spahiu said.

Regarding Prime Minister Albin Kurti's message on the anniversary of Ivanovic's death, Spahiu pointed out that it was Kurti's political act.

"It was a political act of the Prime Minister. Kurti's statement is a kind of justification for not investigating the case by justifying institutions for which he has no responsibility because the prosecution and the judiciary are independent, but they are still a reflection of the state", he adds.

Spahiu said that Ivanovic was the reason why Serbs live in the north of Kosovo today and added that if there was no Ivanovic, there would be no Serbs in Kosovo now.

"What happened after the war, when the Serbian state was defeated, was that Oliver was the one who organized the local Serbs to prevent the Albanians from returning to the north, to protect the Serbs from deportation, and that was his action. There would be no Serbs in the north, no universities, or parallel institutions. After 23 years, there would be no more Serbs in Kosovo. We cannot say that Ivanovic was loyal to Kosovo, he was to Serbia, but he was a bridge of communication. He spoke Albanian, and he talked to journalists", Spahiu concluded.

Spahiu further said he believed that Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti would accept autonomy for Serbs that would not affect Kosovo's sovereignty.

"I believe that Prime Minister Kurti will accept autonomy for the Serbs that will not harm Kosovo's sovereignty and will not affect Kosovo's foreign policy. There are guarantees for that from US Envoys Gabriel Escobar and Derek Chollet, and we have no reason not to believe that. I think it would be good if Kurti accepted something like that, but not on the condition that Republika Srpska is created," Spahiu noted.