Vujovic: Pro-Serbian parties in the Government of Montenegro will try to reverse relations with Kosovo

Professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Podgorica and President of the Board of Directors of the Center for Monitoring and Research Zlatko Vujovic assesses that, after the entry of representatives of Serbian political parties into the Government of Montenegro, it can be expected that they will try to lower the level of relations with Kosovo to a minimum and to revert them wherever possible.

If the new ruling majority remains in power for a longer period, he does not exclude the possibility of making a decision to withdraw the recognition of Kosovo.

"The current government of Montenegro, i.e., the majority dominated by pro-Serbian and pro-Russian parties, has a negative stance towards Kosovo and its independence and is not interested in good neighborly relations with Kosovo. What they will probably tactically do is to ensure that the actions of certain ministries, such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or European Integration, do not alarm our Western partners to avoid jeopardizing some of their interests. However, wherever they can, in the coming period, they will try to lower the level of relations with Kosovo to a minimum and to revert those relations. When it comes to the potential withdrawal of recognition, it is difficult to do at this moment due to Western pressure, but in the foreseeable future, if this ruling majority remains, I would not exclude that possibility, especially if something goes wrong with European integrations," Vujovic told Kosovo Online.

As he adds, "the carrot – that Montenegro could be in the EU by 2030 – on one hand motivates some people more, and on the other hand increases pressure from Belgrade, which is trying in every way to stop Montenegro's entry into the EU." He emphasizes that this is a complex relationship of intertwined interests and interventions, in which it is sometimes unclear what the Montenegrin government’s next move will be.

"If it happens that the prospect of European integration becomes almost non-existent, if it happens that it collapses under the pressure from Belgrade, then this ruling coalition would have no motive to maintain relations with Kosovo. Just as they adopted the Declaration on Jasenovac despite the stance of Western partners being against it, in some future moment when Mandic and Knezevic want to demonstrate loyalty to official Belgrade, we should not exclude such a decision, as it does not require a parliamentary vote but only a majority in the government, and now that majority in the government is quite different than it appeared before the reconstruction," Vujovic explains.

However, he points out that the reconstructed government is extremely unstable despite having two-thirds of the deputies in the Montenegrin parliament, which, as he says, sounds absurd because the number of deputies supporting the government should be the basic criterion of its stability.

"Here, however, we are dealing with very diverse political parties, both in terms of programs and identities, and there is also enormous personal mistrust between the leaders of these parties. Some have made a complete turnaround. The Bosniak Party, contrary to the views of its electorate and for the sake of significant benefits for its leadership, decided to support Andrija Mandic, Becic, and Spajic. On the other hand, this has caused enormous turbulence within the party, and a part of its officials has already founded another party, the Bosniak Democratic Movement, raising the question of how this will affect the rating of the Bosniak Party," says our interlocutor.

He also emphasizes that the stability of the reconstructed government will be influenced by the results of the upcoming local elections in Podgorica. According to some estimates, the current ruling coalition, which has two-thirds of the deputies in the national parliament, can hardly hope for an absolute majority.

"I think they will fall far short of the necessary majority to form a government. If it happens that the leader of the ruling majority, the Europe Now Movement, Mr. Milojko Spajic, experiences, as many analysts expect, a drastic drop in support in Podgorica, where they had almost 25, 26 percent, then the pressure on the government would be such that it would probably fall and new elections would be called. The least likely scenario is that this government with this ruling majority will survive. The Prime Minister might survive through another reconstruction, but this ruling majority has minimal chances of surviving," Vujovic believes.