Vuletic: The Srebrenica Resolution will be a "boost" for many in the region

Sociologist Vladimir Vuletic assesses that the Srebrenica Resolution will be a boost for many and that the most dangerous aspect is that everyone is aware that its adoption will lead to further tensions in the region.

"Unfortunately, the Srebrenica resolution will be a boost for many. I believe there is a certain level of synchronization when it comes to voting in the Council of Europe and regarding the Srebrenica resolution. This is not new. When there was a common state, Serbia was constantly in some kind of deadlock. The feeling that the largest country in the region, and at that time the largest republic, is getting stronger, has always united everyone else. Now we have an additional problem," Vuletic stated for Kosovo Online.

He emphasizes that the biggest problem is that adopting such a document could lead to further tensions in the region, and the greatest danger lies in the fact that everyone is aware of this.

"That's what scares me. If everyone is aware, then the question arises as to whether they really want it. Because at the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, the most important issue was to stabilize the region, to prevent conflicts, and that is not the case now," Vuletic pointed out.

He adds that sometimes, daily political interests are crucial in the decision-making of great powers, and currently, "things are hanging in the balance" due to the US elections, the war in Ukraine, but also Israel's position, which, as he emphasizes, is losing moral support globally.

"It is possible that some kind of conflict that would bring an instant – easy victory might suit Biden. Let's remember that ultimately even Trump before the elections initiated a solution, presenting himself as someone who solves a conflict that lasted for decades with one meeting. It wouldn't surprise me if there are some thoughts in those teams that would be truly catastrophic for the region. Not just for Serbia but for all countries in the region. However, sometimes daily political interests, even though there is a big conflict in the US between two blocs, can cause collateral damage. That is why all of us here must be very cautious and aware of that," Vuletic said.

As an example, he mentioned that the Srebrenica Resolution was prepared in secret, and it became known only when it was proposed to the UN General Assembly.

When asked how concerned Serbia should be about the stance of neighbors who unequivocally supported that document, Vuletic emphasized that the key problem Serbia faces is that, unlike others, it is trying to pursue an independent policy, and history has shown that the strategy of great powers is to constantly "keep small states under control."

"Throughout its history, Serbia has shown that it has always tried to take care of itself and protect its interests, and when it happened that this conflicted with the interests of a great power, then conflicts arose," he reminded.

However, he stresses that what is most worrying is that the cosponsors of the document are countries with which Serbia is not in direct conflict.

"And that is the problem. We see that North Macedonia and Slovenia, those two states, without a doubt, are pressured to show that there is a consensus regarding relations with Serbia, in order to increase the pressure on Serbia. Now, when we are faced with such a situation, of course, we can react in different ways, but it is completely clear to us that it is easier for those neighbors to upset Serbia than to upset the US," Vuletic assessed.

According to him, there is no doubt that the newly emerged situation regarding the Srebrenica Resolution will impact relations and cooperation in the region.

Still, he doesn't believe that Serbia will take radical steps that could be interpreted as "revenge."

"Serbia is not inclined towards that because, from the beginning, it has shown that it wants economic cooperation, and it is fully aware that our region is so minor in global terms that without openness and a common market, we are simply less interesting to the world," Vuletic believes.

As an example of strained relations in the region, he mentioned the increasingly vocal opposition of politicians from the region to membership in the Open Balkan initiative, or as recently stated by Albanian presidential candidates in the elections in North Macedonia, Bujar Osmani or Arben Taravari, that they will seek to exit this initiative.

"Generally, from the start, the Open Balkan initiative has been undermined by various political actors who, for one reason or another, with or without reason, were afraid that Serbia might somehow become the regional hegemon. But I don't think that is something that is a problem for those countries as much as it is a problem for the real hegemon, who is aware that strengthening Serbia's position would actually further jeopardize its interests," Vuletic concluded.